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McIntyre Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 1 11–0
2 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 2 10–1
3 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 8–3
4 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 7–4
5 San Diego State University San Diego State University Aztecs 7–4
6 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 6–5
7 California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 5–6
8 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 5–6
9 Clemson University Clemson University Tigers 2–9
10 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 2–9
11 University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 2–9
12 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1–10

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 24,990 team race matches sailed before 2025-02-08, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 51 of 66 matches (77%) with a log-loss of 0.390 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.04 ± 0.25: a typical event, more orderly than 47% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Stanford University
Cardinal 1		210.06
school +0.32, home +0.40		Reade Decker / Piper Blackband 3.52
Dylan Sih / Caroline Geiger
Thomas Whidden / Abby Baird		94%11–0 (100%)+0.7
2Stanford University
Cardinal 2		110.21
school +0.32, home +0.40		Ellie Harned / Kit Harned 3.17
Sophie Fisher / Alexandra Jones 3.10
Alice Schmid / Shay Wood		95%10–1 (91%)−0.4
3University of California at Santa Barbara
Gauchos		36.72
school −0.13		Henry Boeger / Juliet St. Germain 2.62
Jasper Reid / Kate Gallagher 2.25
Michael Fineman / Samuel Long 4–2
Michael Fineman / Avalon Everett 4–1		66%8–3 (73%)+0.7
4University of Southern California
Trojans		75.63
school −0.37		Luke Harris / Lara Granucci 2.39
Cameron Berry / Morgana Manti
Hudson Mayfield / Nicole Drake 2.10		46%7–4 (64%)+2.0
5San Diego State University
Aztecs		56.12
school −0.13		Noah Nyenhuis / Lily Schweber
Aston Smith / Macaela Wilton 2.17
Christopher Hopkins / Ellie Dickson 1.40 4–2
Owen Gormely / Sadie Marinerstein 3–2		56%7–4 (64%)+0.9
6Northwestern University
Wildcats		94.92
school −0.11		Nicholas Chesemore / Samantha Forgosh 1.79
Jake Weinstein / Cora Star 2.26
George Warfel / Herbert Single 0.95		32%6–5 (55%)+2.4
7California Maritime Academy
Keelhaulers		46.33
school +0.28		Nicholas Mueller / Gavin Steuerwald 2.61
Oscar Perry / Nicolai Perez 0.90
Clay Myers / Etienne Quille 2.46		60%5–6 (45%)−1.6
8University of California at Berkeley
Bears		85.21
school +0.07		Nate Ingebritson / Annika Baumgartner 1.68
Carsten Zieger / Katherine Olsen 1.61
Will Cornell / Amelia Gassner 1.74		39%5–6 (45%)+0.7
9Clemson University
Tigers		65.69
school +0.30		Nilah Miller / Sam Heighway 1.93
Mitchell Hnatt / Bryson Eaton
Luke Adams / William Avery		49%2–9 (18%)−3.4
10University of California at San Diego
Tritons		123.69
school −0.09		Allie Shand / Cassie Halaszynski
Brendan O'Connor / Maximus Suh
Skyler Chaffey / Izzy De Fontaine		13%2–9 (18%)+0.6
11University of California at Santa Cruz
Banana Slugs		104.61
school −0.18		Colin Olson / Devon Baker-Berry 1.76
Nathan Ho / Chas Mitchell
Hunter Holguin / Conor Kim 1.07		28%2–9 (18%)−1.1
12Cal Poly University S.L.O.
Mustangs		114.20
school −0.10		Garrett Henderson / Samuel Groom 2.09
Robert Bloomfield / Kieran Mcewen 1.17
Parker Ziegler / Nathan Briar		21%1–10 (9%)−1.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Stanford University Cardinal 110.0613.0611–010.3≥+3.001.241%
6Northwestern University Wildcats4.926.236–53.6+1.312.37%
4University of Southern California Trojans5.636.837–45.0+1.201.613%
3University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos6.727.318–37.3+0.590.346%
5San Diego State University Aztecs6.126.697–46.1+0.570.340%
10University of California at San Diego Tritons3.694.132–91.4+0.440.244%
8University of California at Berkeley Bears5.215.565–64.3+0.360.245%
11University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs4.613.892–93.1−0.720.590%
7California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers6.335.445–66.6−0.881.095%
2Stanford University Cardinal 210.219.1910–110.4−1.030.395%
12Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs4.202.961–102.4−1.231.196%
9Clemson University Tigers5.693.752–95.4−1.944.5>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Nicholas ChesemoreNorthwestern University1.793.106–53.6+1.312.37%
George WarfelNorthwestern University0.952.266–53.6+1.312.37%
Luke HarrisUniversity of Southern California2.393.597–45.0+1.201.613%
Cameron BerryUniversity of Southern California1.092.297–45.0+1.201.613%
Owen GormelySan Diego State University0.892.083–21.9+1.190.928%
Aston SmithSan Diego State University2.172.757–46.1+0.570.340%
Allie ShandUniversity of California at San Diego1.491.932–91.4+0.440.244%
Brendan O'ConnorUniversity of California at San Diego1.211.652–91.4+0.440.244%
Skyler ChaffeyUniversity of California at San Diego0.591.032–91.4+0.440.244%
Nathan HoUniversity of California at Santa Cruz1.801.082–93.1−0.720.590%
Hunter HolguinUniversity of California at Santa Cruz1.070.352–93.1−0.720.590%
Ellie HarnedStanford University3.172.1410–110.4−1.030.395%
Alice SchmidStanford University3.152.1210–110.4−1.030.395%
Nilah MillerClemson University1.93-0.012–95.4−1.944.5>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11University of Southern California TrojansSan Diego State University Aztecs28%upset
12Stanford University Cardinal 1Northwestern University Wildcats99%
13Stanford University Cardinal 2Clemson University Tigers99%
14University of California at San Diego TritonsCal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs31%upset
15University of California at Santa Barbara GauchosCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers63%
16University of California at Berkeley BearsUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs66%
17San Diego State University AztecsNorthwestern University Wildcats79%
18University of Southern California TrojansClemson University Tigers45%upset
19Stanford University Cardinal 1Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs100%
110Stanford University Cardinal 2California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers98%
111University of California at San Diego TritonsUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs25%upset
112University of California at Santa Barbara GauchosUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears84%
113Northwestern University WildcatsClemson University Tigers33%upset
114San Diego State University AztecsCal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs89%
115University of Southern California TrojansCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers31%upset
116Stanford University Cardinal 1University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs100%
117Stanford University Cardinal 2University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos97%
118University of California at Berkeley BearsUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons84%
119Cal Poly University S.L.O. MustangsClemson University Tigers18%upset
120California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersNorthwestern University Wildcats80%
121San Diego State University AztecsUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs85%
122University of California at Santa Barbara GauchosUniversity of Southern California Trojans77%
123Stanford University Cardinal 1University of California at San Diego Tritons100%
124Stanford University Cardinal 2University of California at Berkeley Bears99%
125California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersCal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs89%
126Clemson University TigersUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs75%
127University of California at Santa Barbara GauchosNorthwestern University Wildcats87%
128San Diego State University AztecsUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons93%
129Stanford University Cardinal 2University of Southern California Trojans99%
130Stanford University Cardinal 1University of California at Berkeley Bears99%
131University of California at Santa Cruz Banana SlugsCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers15%upset
132University of California at Santa Barbara GauchosCal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs92%
133Clemson University TigersUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons88%
134Stanford University Cardinal 2Northwestern University Wildcats100%
135Stanford University Cardinal 1San Diego State University Aztecs98%
136University of Southern California TrojansUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears61%
137University of California at Santa Barbara GauchosUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs88%
138California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons93%
139Stanford University Cardinal 2Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs100%
140Stanford University Cardinal 1Clemson University Tigers99%
141Northwestern University WildcatsUniversity of Southern California Trojans31%upset
142University of California at Berkeley BearsSan Diego State University Aztecs36%upset
143University of California at Santa Barbara GauchosUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons94%
144Stanford University Cardinal 2University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs100%
145Stanford University Cardinal 1California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers98%
146University of Southern California TrojansCal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs82%
147San Diego State University AztecsClemson University Tigers54%
148Northwestern University WildcatsUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears42%upset
149Stanford University Cardinal 2University of California at San Diego Tritons100%
150Stanford University Cardinal 1University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos97%
151University of Southern California TrojansUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs75%
152San Diego State University AztecsCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers40%upset
153Northwestern University WildcatsCal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs66%
154University of California at Berkeley BearsClemson University Tigers38%upset
155Stanford University Cardinal 1Stanford University Cardinal 247%upset
156University of Southern California TrojansUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons87%
157San Diego State University AztecsUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos33%upset
158Northwestern University WildcatsUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs56%
159California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersClemson University Tigers65%
160University of California at Berkeley BearsCal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs73%
161Stanford University Cardinal 1University of Southern California Trojans99%
162Stanford University Cardinal 2San Diego State University Aztecs99%
163Northwestern University WildcatsUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons74%
164University of California at Santa Barbara GauchosClemson University Tigers72%
165University of California at Santa Cruz Banana SlugsCal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs60%
166California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears75%

Round 1

TeamRec.12GauchosTrojansAztecsWildcatsKeelhaulersBearsTigersTritonsSlugsMustangs
Stanford University Cardinal 121–1✕✕WWWWWWWWWW
Stanford University Cardinal 221–1✕✕WWWWWWWWWW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos8–3LL✕WLWWWWWWW
University of Southern California Trojans7–4LLL✕WLWWWWWW
San Diego State University Aztecs7–4LLWL✕WWLWWWW
Northwestern University Wildcats6–5LLLWL✕LWWWWW
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers5–6LLLLLW✕WWWLW
University of California at Berkeley Bears5–6LLLLWLL✕WWWW
Clemson University Tigers2–9LLLLLLLL✕WWL
University of California at San Diego Tritons2–9LLLLLLLLL✕WW
University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs2–9LLLLLLWLLL✕W
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs1–10LLLLLLLLWLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 University of Southern California Trojans 1-2-6 def. San Diego State University Aztecs 3-4-5
2 Stanford University Cardinal 1 1-2-3 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 4-5-6
3 Stanford University Cardinal 2 1-2-3 def. Clemson University Tigers 4-5-6
4 University of California at San Diego Tritons 1-3-5 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2-4-6
5 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2-3-4 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-5-6
6 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-2-3 def. University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 4-5-6
7 San Diego State University Aztecs 1-2-4 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 3-5-6
8 University of Southern California Trojans 2-3-4 def. Clemson University Tigers 1-5-6
9 Stanford University Cardinal 1 1-2-3 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 4-5-6
10 Stanford University Cardinal 2 1-2-4 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 3-5-6
11 University of California at San Diego Tritons 1-3-5 def. University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 2-4-6
12 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-4-5 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 2-3-6
13 Northwestern University Wildcats 1-3-6 def. Clemson University Tigers 2-4-5
14 San Diego State University Aztecs 1-2-5 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-4-6
15 University of Southern California Trojans 2-3-4 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-5-6
16 Stanford University Cardinal 1 1-2-3 def. University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 4-5-6
17 Stanford University Cardinal 2 1-2-4 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3-5-6
18 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-3-5 def. University of California at San Diego Tritons 2-4-6
19 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1-2-6 def. Clemson University Tigers 3-4-5
20 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-3-6 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 2-4-5
21 San Diego State University Aztecs 1-2-5 def. University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 3-4-6
22 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-6 def. University of Southern California Trojans 3-4-5
23 Stanford University Cardinal 1 1-2-3 def. University of California at San Diego Tritons 4-5-6
24 Stanford University Cardinal 2 1-2-4 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-5-6
25 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-3-4 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2-5-6
26 Clemson University Tigers 1-2-3 def. University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 4-5-6
27 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-5 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 3-4-6
28 San Diego State University Aztecs 1-2-6 def. University of California at San Diego Tritons 3-4-5
29 Stanford University Cardinal 2 1-2-3 def. University of Southern California Trojans 4-5-6
30 Stanford University Cardinal 1 1-2-6 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-4-5
31 University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 1-2-6 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 3-4-5
32 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-5 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-4-6
33 Clemson University Tigers 1-2-3 def. University of California at San Diego Tritons 4-5-6
34 Stanford University Cardinal 2 1-3-5 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 2-4-6
35 Stanford University Cardinal 1 1-2-4 def. San Diego State University Aztecs 3-5-6
36 University of Southern California Trojans 2-3-4 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-5-6
37 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-3 def. University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 4-5-6
38 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 2-3-4 def. University of California at San Diego Tritons 1-5-6
39 Stanford University Cardinal 2 1-2-4 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-5-6
40 Stanford University Cardinal 1 1-2-5 def. Clemson University Tigers 3-4-6
41 Northwestern University Wildcats 1-4-5 def. University of Southern California Trojans 2-3-6
42 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-4-5 def. San Diego State University Aztecs 2-3-6
43 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2-3-4 def. University of California at San Diego Tritons 1-5-6
44 Stanford University Cardinal 2 1-2-3 def. University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 4-5-6
45 Stanford University Cardinal 1 1-2-4 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 3-5-6
46 University of Southern California Trojans 1-2-5 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-4-6
47 San Diego State University Aztecs 1-2-6 def. Clemson University Tigers 3-4-5
48 Northwestern University Wildcats 1-3-5 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 2-4-6
49 Stanford University Cardinal 2 1-2-3 def. University of California at San Diego Tritons 4-5-6
50 Stanford University Cardinal 1 1-2-6 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3-4-5
51 University of Southern California Trojans 1-2-4 def. University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 3-5-6
52 San Diego State University Aztecs 2-3-4 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-5-6
53 Northwestern University Wildcats 1-4-5 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2-3-6
54 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-2-3 def. Clemson University Tigers 4-5-6
55 Stanford University Cardinal 1 2-3-4 def. Stanford University Cardinal 2 1-5-6
56 University of Southern California Trojans 1-2-4 def. University of California at San Diego Tritons 3-5-6
57 San Diego State University Aztecs 1-3-5 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2-4-6
58 Northwestern University Wildcats 1-3-5 def. University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 2-4-6
59 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-5 def. Clemson University Tigers 3-4-6
60 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-2-4 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-5-6
61 Stanford University Cardinal 1 1-2-4 def. University of Southern California Trojans 3-5-6
62 Stanford University Cardinal 2 1-2-4 def. San Diego State University Aztecs 3-5-6
63 Northwestern University Wildcats 1-2-6 def. University of California at San Diego Tritons 3-4-5
64 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-6 def. Clemson University Tigers 3-4-5
65 University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 2-3-5 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1-4-6
66 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-6 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-4-5
SchoolTeam SkippersCrew
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 1 Dylan Sih '28
Reade Decker '27
Thomas Whidden '28		 Caroline Geiger '28
Piper Blackband '28
Abby Baird '28
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 2 Alice Schmid '27
Ellie Harned '26
Sophie Fisher '26		 Shay Wood '27
Kit Harned '27
Alexandra Jones '28
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos Henry Boeger '25
Jasper Reid '25
Michael Fineman '25		 Juliet St. Germain '25
Kate Gallagher '25
Samuel Long '27
Avalon Everett '27
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans Cameron Berry '25
Hudson Mayfield '27
Luke Harris '27		 Morgana Manti '26
Nicole Drake '28
Lara Granucci '28
San Diego State University San Diego State University Aztecs Aston Smith '28
Christopher Hopkins '25
Noah Nyenhuis '27
Owen Gormely '27		 Macaela Wilton '27
Ellie Dickson '25
Lily Schweber '27
Sadie Marinerstein '28
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats George Warfel '26
Jake Weinstein '27
Nicholas Chesemore '27		 Herbert Single '27
Cora Star '26
Samantha Forgosh '26
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers Clay Myers '25
Nicholas Mueller '27
Oscar Perry '28		 Etienne Quille '25
Gavin Steuerwald '28
Nicolai Perez '28
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears Carsten Zieger '28
Nate Ingebritson '25
Will Cornell '25		 Katherine Olsen '25
Annika Baumgartner '28
Amelia Gassner '24
Clemson University Clemson University Tigers Luke Adams '28
Mitchell Hnatt '28
Nilah Miller '25		 William Avery '27
Bryson Eaton '28
Sam Heighway '25
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons Allie Shand '26
Brendan O'Connor '27
Skyler Chaffey '28		 Cassie Halaszynski '25
Maximus Suh '26
Izzy De Fontaine '28
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs Colin Olson '26
Hunter Holguin '25
Nathan Ho '26		 Devon Baker-Berry '26
Conor Kim '27
Chas Mitchell '26
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs Garrett Henderson '27
Parker Ziegler '28
Robert Bloomfield '26		 Samuel Groom '24
Nathan Briar '26
Kieran Mcewen '28

Conditions — 02/08/2025 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 76%  ·  Pressure 1027.0 hPa

Temperature

50°F
↑ 54°F   ↓ 39°F
Feels like 46°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.8 kn
avg  ·  max 8.1 kn
Gusts to 18.9 kn
From NNW (336°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover12% Sunshine9.8 hrs Humidity76% Pressure1027.0 hPa

What this breeze does at Stanford — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Stanford in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.10)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled fleet-race days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →