San Diego State University '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.16 (fleet 3.01) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.02 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 17–20 (46%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 3 | 17–20 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (37 matches) the record is 17–20 against 16.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-12 | PCCSC Carter Ford Open Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.48 | 3.02 | 9–10 | 7.2 | +0.54 | 0.7 | 23% |
| 2025-02-08 | McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 2.17 | 2.75 | 7–4 | 6.1 | +0.57 | 0.3 | 40% |
| 2025-02-01 | Mustang Team Race | skipper | 2.02 | 0.16 | 1–6 | 2.8 | −1.87 | 2.3 | 99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Top-9 Invite | Skipper | B | 9 | 11.4 | -0.43 |
| PCCSC South Designate 2025 | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.2 | 3.88 |
| PCCSC Mark Healy Open Fleet Race Championship | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.6 | 2.96 |
| PCCSC Carter Ford Open Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 19 | 47% | — |
| Mustang Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 14% | — |
| Mustang Open JV | Skipper | A | 6 | 1.8 | 1.14 |
| McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 64% | — |
| Jeff Simon Memorial Regatta Coed | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.7 | 3.27 |
| Cactus Cup | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.3 | 2.98 |
| 2025 Azalea Bowl Regatta | Skipper | A | 7 | 3.3 | 3.56 |
| 2025 Sailpack Oriental Intercollegiate Regatta | Skipper | A | 9 | 2.9 | 4.01 |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| UCSD Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.6 | 1.95 |
| Stoney Burke JV | Skipper | A | 7 | 1.9 | 3.81 |
| Rose Bowl Regatta 2025 - COLLEGE | Skipper | B | 6 | 8.2 | 2.58 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 2 | 2.0 | 5.02 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Aston Smith |  Santa Barbara City College |
'28 |
| ICSA | Aston Smith |  University of California at Santa Barbara |
'28 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
