Navigate

Top-9 Invite

SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal A 1 1 3 6 9 5 3 6 2 36 Dylan Sih '28 [1-2]
Chapman Petersen '26 [3-9]
Shay Wood '27 [1-2]
Amiya Stroumza '28 [3-9]
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal B 7 2 8 5 3 6 1 3 3 38 Thomas Whidden '28
Caroline Geiger '28
San Diego State University San Diego State University Aztecs A 6 3 2 3 1 10 9 4 6 44 Noah Nyenhuis '27
Lily Schweber '27
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows B 8 14 1 2 6 2 6 1 4 44 Erik Anderson '26
Amanda Turner '27
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans A 2 11 4 9 12 4 4 10 1 57 Hudson Mayfield '27
Nicole Drake '28
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos A 12 6 7 1 10 3 2 9 10 60 Henry Boeger '25
Juliet St. Germain '25
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers A 13 4 6 4 5 1 5 11 12 61 Nicholas Mueller '27
Gavin Steuerwald '28
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows A 5 9 12 15 4 7 10 2 7 71 Everett Mcavoy '26
Sophia Shaeffer '25
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos B 3 10 9 8 2 9 11 12 14 78 Thomas Erisman '26
Avalon Everett '27
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears A 4 13 10 11 14 12 14 5 9 92 Carsten Zieger '28
Emerson Marquez '27
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans B 14 7 14 10 8 8 7 13 11 92 Luke Harris '27 [1-9]
Jackson Mckinley '26 [1-2]
Alex Tang '27 [3-9]
San Diego State University San Diego State University Aztecs B 10 8 5 16 13 13 15 7 16 103 Aston Smith '28
Macaela Wilton '27
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers B 9 15 13 12 7 14 8 14 13 105 Sam Jennings '27
Mateo Krok '27
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies B 15 12 11 7 15 11 13 15 8 107 Lucien Freemesser '27
Jeffrey Kriegh '27
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies A 11 5 16 14 11 15 12 16 15 115 Oliver Nairn '27
Kirin Dhaka '27
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears B 18 16 17 17 16 16 16 8 5 129 Michael Mcculloch '25 [1-2, 5-9]
Ethan Lisle '25 [3-4]
Annika Baumgartner '28 [1-2]
Marianna Maciel '25 [3-4]
Valarie Pieruccini '26 [5-9]
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins A 17 17 15 13 18 17 17 17 17 148 Rigel Mummers '27
Kevin Lu '27
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins B 16 18 18 18 17 18 18 18 18 159 Liam Williams '26
Phineas Fritsch '27
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2009 (35 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears444444444
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers111111111
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows777777777
San Diego State UniversitySan Diego State University Aztecs222222222
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans888888888
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal333333333
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins555555555
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos666666666
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies999999999

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears131313131313131313
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers101010101010101010
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows161616161616161616
San Diego State UniversitySan Diego State University Aztecs111111111111111111
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans171717171717171717
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal121212121212121212
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins141414141414141414
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos151515151515151515
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies181818181818181818

Conditions — 02/15/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 72%  ·  Pressure 1027.1 hPa

Temperature

54°F
↑ 60°F   ↓ 40°F
Feels like 52°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
1.7 kn
avg  ·  max 3.0 kn
Gusts to 9.9 kn
From NNE (28°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover95% Sunshine9.4 hrs Humidity72% Pressure1027.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 6 kn* · N 5 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Stanford: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.14)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.08 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast +0.05
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.04 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 12% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →