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Rose Bowl Regatta 2025 - COLLEGE — Analysis

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* This regatta is not official yet. Ratings marked * are from the last weekly update and have not absorbed this event; the performance columns use the results posted so far, and everything refreshes as scoring is finalised.

Performance rating answers one question for each skipper: holding every other skipper's rating fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? It is the maximum-likelihood rating under the same Plackett–Luce model that produces the power rankings (how accurate it is), with each opponent fixed at their rating from the last rated week before this event (2025-W01). Substitute skippers are scored only on the races they sailed, and races the boat did not finish (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out.

Percentile places a rating among the 2,388 ICSA skippers who were rated within the year before this event, so it reads as “better than X% of the skippers racing in this league right now”. The arrow shows where the sailor stood going in and where this performance would put them.

Surprise is how many bits more surprising the sailor's finishes were at their pre-event rating than at their performance rating (0 = exactly as expected). P(this good or better) simulates the regatta 3,000 times with the sailor at their pre-event rating against the actual fleet, and reports how often they would score this many points or fewer in the races they skippered. Races in one regatta are not independent, so each simulation also gives every skipper a good or bad regatta, form that drifts from race to race, and the speed of each boat the rotation puts them in (why). Low means an unusually good regatta, high means an unusually poor one. It deliberately ignores how rivals actually sailed, so it agrees with the performance rating rather than with the division finish, which also depends on everyone else's day. Ratings are shown on the rankings scale (model rating × 100). Only skippers are rated; crews are not part of the model.

  • n no rating before this event — the model's estimate from this week is used as the baseline.

Division A  18 boats · 6 races

Fin Skipper School Races Rating
before*		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.		 Rating
after*
1 Diego Escobar '25 Georgetown University 6/6 418* 511 +93 97th → 99th 2.2 7% 3.0 / 5.7 422*
2 Owen Hennessey '25 St. Mary's College of Maryland 6/6 439* 477 +38 98th → 99th 0.4 24% 3.7 / 5.1 445*
3 Kelly Holthus '27 Tulane University 6/6 429* 427 -2 98th → 98th 0.0 32% 4.3 / 5.4 425*
4 Michael Kirkman '25 Boston College 6/6 427* 449 +22 98th → 99th 0.2 34% 4.5 / 5.5 423*
5 Noah Nyenhuis '27 San Diego State University 6/6 374* 412 +38 94th → 97th 0.4 23% 5.2 / 7.1 372*
6 Bradley Whiteway '26 U. S. Coast Guard Academy 6/6 354* 396 +42 93rd → 96th 0.6 30% 6.2 / 7.6 357*
7 Lucas Thress '26 Fordham University 6/6 313* 379 +66 87th → 95th 1.3 16% 6.3 / 8.8 326*
8 Nicholas Mueller '27 California Maritime Academy 6/6 320* 354 +34 88th → 93rd 0.4 36% 7.7 / 8.6 325*
9 Tyler Wood '26 George Washington University 6/6 350* 325 -25 92nd → 89th 0.2 62% 8.2 / 7.6 350*
10 Allie Shand '26 University of California at San Diego 6/6 225* 265 +41 75th → 81st 0.5 44% 11.0 / 11.4 228*
11 Hudson Mayfield '27 University of Southern California 4/6 314* 248 -66 88th → 78th 1.2 76% 10.8 / 8.9 309*
11 Morgana Manti '26 University of Southern California 2/6 224* 182 -42 75th → 66th 0.2 80% 14.5 / 11.4 222*
12 Jasper Reid '25 University of California at Santa Barbara 4/6 263* 273 +10 81st → 82nd 0.0 49% 10.2 / 10.4 263*
12 Thomas Erisman '26 University of California at Santa Barbara 2/6 261* 100 -161 80th → 49th 4.3 98% 17.0 / 10.5 258*
13 Samuel Groom '24 Cal Poly University S.L.O. 6/6 161* 200 +39 62nd → 70th 0.4 38% 12.8 / 13.4 167*
13 Sterling Maggard '27 California State University Channel Islands 6/6 199* 210 +11 69th → 72nd 0.0 57% 12.8 / 12.3 196*
15 Carsten Zieger '28 University of California at Berkeley 6/6 193* 222 +29 68th → 74th 0.3 64% 13.3 / 12.5 200*
16 Lucien Freemesser '27 University of Washington Huskies 1 6/6 235* 145 -90 76th → 58th 3.1 93% 14.7 / 11.4 230*
17 Grace Bray '27 Northwestern University 6/6 168* 126 -42 63rd → 55th 0.6 89% 15.7 / 13.2 163*
18 Stephanie Seto '27 University of Washington Huskies 2 6/6 78* 15 -63 44th → 31st 0.7 86% 17.2 / 15.2 78*

Division B  18 boats · 6 races

Fin Skipper School Races Rating
before*		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.		 Rating
after*
1 Charlie Anderson '25 St. Mary's College of Maryland 6/6 388* 630 +242 96th → 99th 8.8 <1% 1.5 / 5.1 397*
2 Alex Lech '28 Boston College 6/6 374* 429 +55 94th → 98th 0.9 22% 3.8 / 5.4 384*
3 Luke Zylinski '26 U. S. Coast Guard Academy 6/6 338* 393 +55 91st → 96th 0.8 19% 4.5 / 6.4 343*
4 Jacob Zils '27 Fordham University 4/6 369* 403 +34 94th → 97th 0.2 36% 4.5 / 5.5 372*
4 Lizzie Cochran '27 Fordham University 2/6 262* 374 +112 81st → 94th 1.1 21% 5.5 / 8.4 269*
5 Piper Holthus '25 Georgetown University 6/6 413* 335 -78 97th → 90th 2.4 82% 5.8 / 4.5 410*
6 Oakley Cunningham '27 Tulane University 6/6 294* 312 +18 85th → 87th 0.1 47% 7.2 / 7.5 295*
7 Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia '26 George Washington University 6/6 278* 294 +16 83rd → 85th 0.1 43% 7.5 / 8.0 288*
8 Henry Boeger '25 University of California at Santa Barbara 6/6 320* 200 -120 88th → 70th 5.1 74% 8.0 / 6.8 331*
9 Aston Smith '28 San Diego State University 6/6 289* 289 +1 84th → 84th 0.0 60% 8.2 / 7.7 297*
10 Owen Cuyler '28 California Maritime Academy 6/6 221* 257 +36 74th → 80th 0.4 44% 9.2 / 9.5 227*
10 Luke Harris '27 University of Southern California 4/6 321* 390 +69 89th → 96th 0.9 24% 5.0 / 6.9 325*
10 Ava Bergan '27 University of Southern California 2/6 58* -155 -214 40th → 3rd 4.3 97% 17.5 / 13.4 57*
12 Emerson Marquez '27 University of California at Berkeley 6/6 23* 155 +132 32nd → 60th 4.6 13% 12.3 / 14.4 39*
13 Alice Meng '28 University of Washington Huskies 2 6/6 56n* 97 +41 39th → 49th 0.5 55% 14.0 / 13.3 56*
13 Mitchel Sanford '28 University of California at San Diego 6/6 154* 97 -57 60th → 49th 1.3 87% 14.0 / 11.3 156*
15 Mira Shupe '26 Cal Poly University S.L.O. 6/6 2* 97 +95 28th → 49th 2.5 35% 14.2 / 14.8 4*
16 Cole Abbott '26 Northwestern University 6/6 138* 64 -74 57th → 41st 2.0 92% 14.5 / 11.9 137*
17 Enzo Dougherty '27 University of Washington Huskies 1 6/6 76* 20 -56 43rd → 31st 0.9 83% 15.2 / 13.2 73*
18 Brent Lin '24 California State University Channel Islands 6/6 -64* -97 -34 14th → 9th 0.2 82% 17.2 / 15.8 -56*

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →