Seahawk Women's Team Race

HostSt. Mary's
Date03/23/2024
TypeCross Regional
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	College of Charleston	Cougars	16–5
2	Cornell University	Big Red	15–6
3	Dartmouth College	Big Green	15–6
4	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	15–6
5	Georgetown University	Hoyas	11–7
6	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	7–11
7	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	6–12
8	Jacksonville University	Fins	5–13
9	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	4–14
10	Fordham University	Rams	2–16

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 23,158 team race matches sailed before 2024-03-23, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 75 of 96 matches (78%) with a log-loss of 0.465 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.10 ± 0.20: a typical event, more orderly than 53% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	College of Charleston Cougars	4	8.81 school +0.39	Grace Squires / Marina Dryer 2.78 Emma Tallman / Rowan Schanley 3.06 12–1 Fredrikke Foss / Chloe Hudgins 2.49 12–1 Emma Tallman / Clara Murphy 3.06 4–4 Emily Alfortish / Chloe Hudgins 2.69 4–4	69%	16–5 (76%)	+1.5
2	Cornell University Big Red	2	9.04 school −0.12	Bridget Green / Amelia Neumann 3.43 7–5 Sophia Devling / Sophia Pearce 2.86 10–1 Winborne Majette / Sophia Pearce 2.92 5–5 Sophia Devling / Kate Moran 2.76 5–5 Bridget Green / Sophia Mulvania 3.48 8–1 Winborne Majette / Amelia Neumann 2.82 8–1 Winborne Majette / Kate Moran 2.82 2–0	73%	15–6 (71%)	−0.4
3	Dartmouth College Big Green	3	8.87 school +0.30	Gray Hemans / Sudi Zhao 2.94 13–6 Bella Casaretto / Phoebe Lee 2.77 10–5 Sarah Young / Olivia Drulard 2.74 8–3 Sarah Young / Madeline Koelbel 2.83 7–3 Taylor Eastman / Phoebe Lee 2.73 3–1 Gray Hemans / Faye Benjamin 3.01 2–0 Bella Casaretto / Faye Benjamin 2.87 2–0	70%	15–6 (71%)	+0.3
4	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	1	9.08 school +0.29	Torrey Chisari / Anna Hoffman 2.96 Madeleine Rice / Kiki Bruzzi 2.98 Sofia Segalla / Cat Grogan 2.77	75%	15–6 (71%)	−0.7
5	Georgetown University Hoyas	5	7.92 school +0.27	Kelly Bates / Margot Gordon 2.59 Piper Holthus / Lucy Jervis 3.11 8–6 Morgan Rice / Audrey Fung 1.98 8–6 Piper Holthus / Audrey Fung 3.10 3–1 Morgan Rice / Alexis Tamm 2.01 1–1 Alexa Shea / Lucy Jervis 2–0	56%	11–7 (61%)	+1.0
6	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	9	6.46 school +0.19	Heather Kerns / Stella Kim 2.23 Brook Wood / Laura Therien 1.95 Elizabeth Starck / Ella Donaldson 2.09 5–7 Elizabeth Starck / Maya Mahoney 2.01 2–4	27%	7–11 (39%)	+2.1
7	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	6	7.20 school +0.26	Eva Blauvelt / Maggie Schuler 2.94 6–10 Aubin Hattendorf / Josephine Sherry 1.70 6–10 Ava Farley / Linnea Forsberg 2.28 5–11 Ava Farley / Catherine Aitken 2.20 1–1 Eva Blauvelt / Julia Christie 2.99 0–2 Aubin Hattendorf / Catherine Aitken 1.65 0–2	43%	6–12 (33%)	−1.7
8	Jacksonville University Fins	7	6.75	Emily Allen / Reagan Carris 2.77 Agija Elerte / Kayla Putzke 2.01 Kaitlyn Liebel / Payton Ruth 1.95	32%	5–13 (28%)	−0.8
9	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	8	6.53 school +0.33, home +0.41	Cho-Cho Williams / Indiana Theurer 1.97 4–10 Lina Carper / Grace Phillips 1.87 4–10 Lily Flack / Emily Shioutakon 1.89 4–10 Lina Carper / Lillian Newman 1.85 0–4 Lily Flack / Mary Catherine Hill 1.86 0–4 Cho-Cho Williams / Grace Phillips 1.92 0–4	28%	4–14 (22%)	−1.1
10	Fordham University Rams	10	5.58 school +0.07	Elizabeth Cutler / Ashley Abboud 2.17 Lizzie Cochran / Leah Spadaro 1.71 Isa Arrigo / Rebecca Keller	13%	2–16 (11%)	−0.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
6	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	6.46	7.18	7–11	4.9	+0.72	1.1	16%
1	College of Charleston	8.81	9.26	16–5	14.5	+0.45	0.5	30%
5	Georgetown University	7.92	8.24	11–7	10.0	+0.32	0.2	39%
3	Dartmouth College	8.87	8.96	15–6	14.7	+0.09	0.0	55%
2	Cornell University	9.04	8.93	15–6	15.4	−0.11	0.0	69%
4	University of Pennsylvania	9.08	8.89	15–6	15.7	−0.20	0.1	75%
10	Fordham University	5.58	5.38	2–16	2.4	−0.20	0.1	72%
8	Jacksonville University	6.75	6.46	5–13	5.8	−0.29	0.2	78%
9	St. Mary's College of Maryland	6.53	6.11	4–14	5.1	−0.42	0.3	83%
7	U. S. Naval Academy	7.20	6.66	6–12	7.7	−0.54	0.6	89%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Fredrikke Foss	College of Charleston	2.49	4.15	12–1	9.6	+1.66	2.4	9%
Bella Casaretto	Dartmouth College	2.77	3.08	12–5	11.1	+0.31	0.2	41%
Winborne Majette	Cornell University	2.92	2.81	15–6	15.4	−0.11	0.0	69%
Torrey Chisari	University of Pennsylvania	2.96	2.76	15–6	15.7	−0.20	0.1	75%
Madeleine Rice	University of Pennsylvania	2.98	2.78	15–6	15.7	−0.20	0.1	75%
Agija Elerte	Jacksonville University	2.01	1.72	5–13	5.8	−0.29	0.2	78%
Lily Flack	St. Mary's College of Maryland	1.89	1.47	4–14	5.1	−0.42	0.3	83%
Cho-Cho Williams	St. Mary's College of Maryland	1.97	1.55	4–14	5.1	−0.42	0.3	83%
Eva Blauvelt	U. S. Naval Academy	2.94	2.40	6–12	7.7	−0.54	0.6	89%
Aubin Hattendorf	U. S. Naval Academy	1.70	1.15	6–12	7.7	−0.54	0.6	89%
Ava Farley	U. S. Naval Academy	2.28	1.74	6–12	7.7	−0.54	0.6	89%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	82%
1	2	Jacksonville University	Fordham University	78%
1	3	Dartmouth College	U. S. Naval Academy	84%
1	4	Cornell University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	94%
1	5	College of Charleston	University of Pennsylvania	43%	upset
1	6	Georgetown University	Fordham University	92%
1	7	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Dartmouth College	9%	upset
1	8	Cornell University	Jacksonville University	91%
1	9	University of Pennsylvania	U. S. Naval Academy	86%
1	10	College of Charleston	St. Mary's College of Maryland	91%
1	11	Dartmouth College	Fordham University	96%
1	12	Cornell University	Georgetown University	74%
1	13	University of Pennsylvania	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	93%
1	14	Jacksonville University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	56%
1	15	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	82%
1	16	Cornell University	Dartmouth College	55%
1	17	University of Pennsylvania	Fordham University	97%
1	18	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	81%
1	19	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	69%
1	20	College of Charleston	Jacksonville University	88%
1	21	University of Pennsylvania	Cornell University	51%
1	22	Dartmouth College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	91%
1	23	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	84%
1	24	Jacksonville University	Georgetown University	23%	upset
1	25	College of Charleston	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	90%
1	26	University of Pennsylvania	St. Mary's College of Maryland	93%
1	27	U. S. Naval Academy	Cornell University	13%	upset
1	28	Dartmouth College	Jacksonville University	89%
1	29	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Fordham University	71%
1	30	College of Charleston	Georgetown University	68%
1	31	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	66%
1	32	University of Pennsylvania	Jacksonville University	91%
1	33	Cornell University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	93%
1	34	Dartmouth College	Georgetown University	73%
1	35	College of Charleston	Fordham University	97%
1	36	Jacksonville University	U. S. Naval Academy	39%	upset
1	37	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	St. Mary's College of Maryland	49%	upset
1	38	University of Pennsylvania	Georgetown University	75%
1	39	Fordham University	Cornell University	3%	upset
1	40	Dartmouth College	College of Charleston	49%	upset
1	41	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Jacksonville University	44%	upset
1	42	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	57%
1	43	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Fordham University	72%
1	44	Dartmouth College	University of Pennsylvania	45%	upset
1	45	Cornell University	College of Charleston	53%
2	46	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	82%
2	47	Fordham University	Jacksonville University	24%	upset
2	48	Dartmouth College	U. S. Naval Academy	84%
2	49	Cornell University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	93%
2	50	University of Pennsylvania	College of Charleston	59%
2	51	Georgetown University	Fordham University	92%
2	52	Dartmouth College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	92%
2	53	Cornell University	Jacksonville University	91%
2	54	University of Pennsylvania	U. S. Naval Academy	87%
2	55	College of Charleston	St. Mary's College of Maryland	91%
2	56	Dartmouth College	Fordham University	96%
2	57	Georgetown University	Cornell University	26%	upset
2	58	University of Pennsylvania	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	94%
2	59	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Jacksonville University	45%	upset
2	60	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	82%
2	61	Dartmouth College	Cornell University	46%	upset
2	62	University of Pennsylvania	Fordham University	97%
2	63	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	80%
2	64	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Naval Academy	31%	upset
2	65	College of Charleston	Jacksonville University	88%
2	66	University of Pennsylvania	Cornell University	52%
2	67	Dartmouth College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	91%
2	68	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	83%
2	69	Georgetown University	Jacksonville University	77%
2	70	College of Charleston	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	90%
2	71	University of Pennsylvania	St. Mary's College of Maryland	92%
2	72	Cornell University	U. S. Naval Academy	87%
2	73	Dartmouth College	Jacksonville University	89%
2	74	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Fordham University	70%
2	75	College of Charleston	Georgetown University	68%
2	76	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	65%
2	77	University of Pennsylvania	Jacksonville University	91%
2	78	Cornell University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	93%
2	79	Dartmouth College	Georgetown University	73%
2	80	College of Charleston	Fordham University	96%
2	81	Jacksonville University	U. S. Naval Academy	39%	upset
2	82	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	53%
2	83	Georgetown University	University of Pennsylvania	25%	upset
2	84	Cornell University	Fordham University	97%
2	85	College of Charleston	Dartmouth College	51%
2	86	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Jacksonville University	44%	upset
2	87	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	58%
2	88	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Fordham University	72%
2	89	University of Pennsylvania	Dartmouth College	55%
2	90	Cornell University	College of Charleston	54%
4	91	College of Charleston	Dartmouth College	50%
4	92	Cornell University	University of Pennsylvania	48%	upset
4	93	Cornell University	College of Charleston	54%
4	94	Dartmouth College	University of Pennsylvania	45%	upset
4	95	Cornell University	Dartmouth College	53%
4	96	College of Charleston	University of Pennsylvania	41%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Cougars	Red	Green	Quakers	Hoyas	Statesmen	Midshipmen	Fins	Seahawks	Rams
College of Charleston Cougars	7–2	✕	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	6–3	W	✕	W	L	W	W	L	W	W	L
Dartmouth College Big Green	7–2	W	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	7–2	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	4–5	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	4–5	L	L	W	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	4–5	L	W	L	L	L	W	✕	L	W	W
Jacksonville University Fins	4–5	L	L	L	L	W	L	W	✕	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Fordham University Rams	1–8	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Cougars	Red	Green	Quakers	Hoyas	Statesmen	Midshipmen	Fins	Seahawks	Rams
College of Charleston Cougars	7–2	✕	L	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	6–3	W	✕	L	L	L	W	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	7–2	L	W	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	8–1	W	W	W	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	7–2	L	W	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	3–6	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W
Jacksonville University Fins	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	L	L
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	3–6	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	W	✕	W
Fordham University Rams	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Cougars	Red	Green	Quakers
College of Charleston Cougars	2–1	✕	L	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	3–0	W	✕	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	1–2	L	L	✕	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	0–3	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
2	Fins	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
3	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
4	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
5	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
6	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
7	Statesmen	2-3-5	def.	Big Green	1-4-6
8	Big Red	1-4-5	def.	Fins	2-3-6
9	Quakers	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
10	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
11	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
12	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
13	Quakers	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
14	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
15	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
16	Big Red	1-3-4	def.	Big Green	2-5-6
17	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
18	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
19	Midshipmen	1-3-4	def.	Statesmen	2-5-6
20	Cougars	1-2-6 DNF	def.	Fins	3-4-5
21	Quakers	1-3-4	def.	Big Red	2-5-6
22	Big Green	1-3-5	def.	Seahawks	2-4-6
23	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
24	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
25	Cougars	2-3-5	def.	Statesmen	1-4-6
26	Quakers	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
27	Midshipmen	1-3-5	def.	Big Red	2-4-6
28	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Fins	3-5-6
29	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
30	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
31	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
32	Quakers	1-3-5	def.	Fins	2-4-6
33	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
34	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
35	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
36	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
37	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
38	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
39	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Big Red	3-4-5
40	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
41	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Fins	3-5-6
42	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
43	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
44	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
45	Big Red	2-3-5	def.	Cougars	1-4-6
46	Hoyas	2-3-5	def.	Statesmen	1-4-6
47	Rams	1-3-5	def.	Fins	2-4-6
48	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
49	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
50	Quakers	2-3-5	def.	Cougars	1-4-6
51	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
52	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
53	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Fins	3-4-5
54	Quakers	1-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	2-5-6
55	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
56	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
57	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Big Red	3-4-5
58	Quakers	2-3-5	def.	Statesmen	1-4-6
59	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Fins	1-5-6
60	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
61	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Big Red	3-4-5
62	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
63	Hoyas	1-3-4	def.	Seahawks	2-5-6
64	Statesmen	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
65	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
66	Quakers	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
67	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
68	Midshipmen	1-3-5	def.	Rams	2-4-6
69	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
70	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
71	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
72	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
73	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Fins	4-5-6
74	Statesmen	1-3-4	def.	Rams	2-5-6
75	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
76	Midshipmen	2-3-5	def.	Seahawks	1-4-6
77	Quakers	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
78	Big Red	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
79	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
80	Cougars	1-3-4	def.	Rams	2-5-6
81	Fins	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
82	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
83	Hoyas	1-4-5	def.	Quakers	2-3-6
84	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
85	Cougars	1-3-6	def.	Big Green	2-4-5
86	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Fins	3-4-5
87	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
88	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
89	Quakers	1-3-4	def.	Big Green	2-5-6
90	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
91	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
92	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
93	Big Red	1-3-5	def.	Cougars	2-4-6
94	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
95	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
96	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
College of Charleston	Cougars	Emily Alfortish '25 Emma Tallman '25 Fredrikke Foss '25 Grace Squires '24	Chloe Hudgins '24 Rowan Schanley '24 Clara Murphy '27 Marina Dryer '26
Cornell University	Big Red	Bridget Green '25 Sophia Devling '26 Winborne Majette '27	Amelia Neumann '25 Sophia Mulvania '26 Kate Moran '27 Sophia Pearce '26
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Bella Casaretto '26 Gray Hemans '25 Sarah Young '25 Taylor Eastman '24	Faye Benjamin '25 Phoebe Lee '26 Sudi Zhao '26 Madeline Koelbel '26 Olivia Drulard '27
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	Madeleine Rice '24 Sofia Segalla '25 Torrey Chisari '24	Kiki Bruzzi '25 Cat Grogan '25 Anna Hoffman '26
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Alexa Shea '26 Kelly Bates '26 Morgan Rice '25 Piper Holthus '25	Lucy Jervis '27 Margot Gordon '26 Audrey Fung '24 Alexis Tamm '26
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Brook Wood '25 Elizabeth Starck '25 Heather Kerns '24	Laura Therien '26 Ella Donaldson '27 Maya Mahoney '27 Stella Kim '27
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Aubin Hattendorf '24 Ava Farley '26 Eva Blauvelt '25	Catherine Aitken '24 Josephine Sherry '27 Linnea Forsberg '25 Julia Christie '24 Maggie Schuler '25
Jacksonville University	Fins	Agija Elerte '26 Emily Allen '25 Kaitlyn Liebel '26	Kayla Putzke '24 Reagan Carris '26 Payton Ruth '26
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Cho-Cho Williams '26 Lily Flack '25 Lina Carper '27	Indiana Theurer '25 Grace Phillips '27 Emily Shioutakon '26 Mary Catherine Hill '27 Lillian Newman '25
Fordham University	Rams	Elizabeth Cutler '24 Isa Arrigo '27 Lizzie Cochran '27	Ashley Abboud '26 Rebecca Keller '25 Leah Spadaro '25

Conditions — 03/23/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 88% · Pressure 1005.0 hPa

Temperature

54°F

↑ 57°F ↓ 51°F

Feels like 48°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

13.6 kn

avg · max 17.1 kn

Gusts to 35.8 kn

From N (352°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine2.7 hrs Humidity88% Pressure1005.0 hPa Rain1.21 in

What this breeze does at St. Mary's — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 15 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at St. Mary's in this breeze: a typical day (−0.00)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Mary's by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled fleet-race days at St. Mary's).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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