Fordham University '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.11 (fleet 2.98) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.04 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 8–70 (10%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 4 | 6–58 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 2–12 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (78 matches) the record is 8–70 against 13.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−5.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-13 | MAISA Women's Team Race Championships | skipper | 2.27 | 2.87 | 2–12 | 1.2 | +0.60 | 0.4 | 34% |
| 2024-03-23 | Seahawk Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.17 | 1.96 | 2–16 | 2.4 | −0.20 | 0.1 | 72% |
| 2024-03-09 | The Wood Trophy | skipper | 2.17 | -0.83 | 0–17 | 0.7 | ≤−3.00 | 1.1 | >99% |
| 2024-03-02 | Navy Team Race Invite | skipper | 2.12 | 0.03 | 2–13 | 7.1 | −2.09 | 7.0 | >99% |
| 2022-03-26 | Seahawk Women's Team Race InterConference | skipper | 1.73 | 1.95 | 2–12 | 1.7 | +0.22 | 0.1 | 51% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| The Wood Trophy | Skipper | TR | 17 | 0% | — |
| Wick Trophy Womens event Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 5.5 | 2.56 |
| Western Women’s National Semi-finals Women's | Skipper | A | 17 | 9.6 | 3.25 |
| St. Mary's Women's Inter-Conference Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.1 | 3.35 |
| Seahawk Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 18 | 11% | — |
| Navy Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 15 | 13% | — |
| MAISA Women's Team Race Championships Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 14% | — |
| MAISA Spring Women's Fleet Race Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.8 | 2.95 |
| Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | B | 10 | 11.0 | 2.54 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 13.0 | 2.37 |
| Women's Regatta at KP Invite Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.7 | 2.24 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Tournament Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.4 | 2.47 |
| Women's ACC Round 1A Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 13.4 | 1.75 |
| Susan Rogers Women's Invite Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 7.4 | 2.78 |
| Oyster Bowl Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 17 | 7.9 | 1.98 |
| MAISA Women's Fall Dinghy Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.0 | 2.64 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| College Sailing Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.9 | 2.88 |
| Navy Women's Spring Fleet Race Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 10.6 | 2.54 |
| MAISA Women's Dinghy Championships Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.4 | 3.40 |
| Hanbury Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.2 | 2.46 |
| Emily Wick Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.4 | 2.39 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Dinghy Tournament Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 10.2 | 2.13 |
| Women's ACC Series, Round 1A Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 13.0 | 2.02 |
| Top 9/Women's Susan Rogers '75 Memorial Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.6 | 1.62 |
| MAISA Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 7.3 | 2.44 |
| Kings Point Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.4 | 0.62 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's College Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 11.0 | 2.20 |
| Seahawk Women's Team Race InterConference Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 14% | — |
| College Sailing Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 12.7 | 1.92 |
| MAISA Spring Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.0 | 1.97 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Tournament Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 9.1 | 1.83 |
| Women's ACC's Round 1A Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 12.8 | 1.56 |
| MAISA Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.5 | 2.00 |
| KP Women's Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.2 | -0.94 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Elizabeth Cutler |  Fairfield Ludlowe High School |
'20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
