MAISA Women's Team Race Championships

HostSt. Mary's
Date04/13/2024
TypeConference Championship
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Cornell University	Big Red	10–4
2	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	10–4
3	Georgetown University	Hoyas	8–6
4	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	7–7
5	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	7–7
6	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	6–8
7	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	6–8
8	Fordham University	Rams	2–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 24,326 team race matches sailed before 2024-04-13, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 39 of 57 matches (68%) with a log-loss of 0.634 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.55 ± 0.24: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 9% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Cornell University Big Red	2	9.44 school −0.10	Sophia Devling / Sophia Pearce 3.09 Winborne Majette / Amelia Neumann 2.97 10–3 Bridget Green / Sophia Mulvania 3.54 8–1 Bridget Green / Kit Harned 3.42 3–3 Lauren Ehnot / Amelia Neumann 2.78 1–1	79%	11–4 (73%)	−0.9
2	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	1	9.51 school +0.29	Torrey Chisari / Anna Hoffman 3.06 Sofia Segalla / Kiki Bruzzi 3.24 Madeleine Rice / Eva Gonzalez-Whitehouse 2.86 5–3 Madeleine Rice / Hannah Bast 2.97 5–2	80%	10–5 (67%)	−2.1
3	Georgetown University Hoyas	3	8.46 school +0.34	Kelly Bates / Margot Gordon 2.77 7–5 Morgan Rice / Addi Harris 2.15 5–5 Piper Holthus / Audrey Fung 3.20 4–4 Piper Holthus / Lucy Jervis 3.22 4–2 Kelly Bates / Louisa Buckingham 2.77 1–1 Morgan Rice / Anna Brzezinski 2.05 1–1 Morgan Rice / Louisa Buckingham 2.13 2–0	64%	8–6 (57%)	−0.9
4	Old Dominion University Monarchs	5	7.45 school +0.32	Gianna Dewey / Allison Volk 2.56 6–4 Megan Geith / Lindsey Kaufmann 2.18 6–4 Elizabeth Gildea / Morgan Auth 2.35 5–3 Elizabeth Gildea / Cadence Goodnight 2.63 2–4 Gianna Dewey / Kristin Johnson 2.30 1–3 Megan Geith / Emma Friedauer 2.12 1–3	41%	7–7 (50%)	+1.3
5	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	6	7.20 school +0.30	Aubin Hattendorf / Catherine Aitken 1.74 3–5 Ava Farley / Josephine Sherry 2.30 4–4 Eva Blauvelt / Maggie Schuler 2.92 4–4 Aubin Hattendorf / Darby Dryden 1.63 4–2 Ava Farley / Eleanor Niehoff 2.24 3–3 Eva Blauvelt / Mary Dwyer 2.87 3–3	38%	7–7 (50%)	+1.7
6	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	7	6.94 school +0.23	Heather Kerns / Stella Kim 2.38 Brook Wood / Laura Therien 2.12 Elizabeth Starck / Ella Donaldson 2.22 2–6 Elizabeth Starck / Maya Mahoney 2.15 4–2	33%	6–8 (43%)	+1.4
7	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	4	7.85 school +0.40, home +0.40	Lily Flack / Emily Shioutakon 1.94 Madison Bashaw / Rachel O'Neill 3.05 Cho-Cho Williams / Grace Phillips 2.03	52%	6–8 (43%)	−1.3
8	Fordham University Rams	8	5.57 school +0.08	Elizabeth Cutler / Ashley Abboud 2.27 Rebecca Keller / Leah Spadaro 2–8 Lizzie Cochran / Alana Shigekane 1.87 2–8 Isa Arrigo / Rebecca Keller 1.64 0–4 Lizzie Cochran / Leah Spadaro 1.85 0–4	9%	2–12 (14%)	+0.8

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
5	U. S. Naval Academy	7.20	7.89	7–7	5.3	+0.69	0.9	21%
8	Fordham University	5.57	6.16	2–12	1.2	+0.60	0.4	34%
6	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	6.94	7.51	6–8	4.6	+0.57	0.6	28%
4	Old Dominion University	7.45	7.96	7–7	5.7	+0.50	0.5	30%
3	Georgetown University	8.46	8.07	8–6	8.9	−0.39	0.3	83%
1	Cornell University	9.44	9.04	11–4	11.9	−0.40	0.3	84%
7	St. Mary's College of Maryland	7.85	7.31	6–8	7.3	−0.54	0.5	88%
2	University of Pennsylvania	9.51	8.64	10–5	12.0	−0.87	1.4	96%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Aubin Hattendorf	U. S. Naval Academy	1.74	2.43	7–7	5.3	+0.69	0.9	21%
Ava Farley	U. S. Naval Academy	2.30	2.99	7–7	5.3	+0.69	0.9	21%
Eva Blauvelt	U. S. Naval Academy	2.92	3.61	7–7	5.3	+0.69	0.9	21%
Winborne Majette	Cornell University	2.97	2.90	10–3	10.1	−0.07	0.0	69%
Lily Flack	St. Mary's College of Maryland	1.94	1.40	6–8	7.3	−0.54	0.5	88%
Cho-Cho Williams	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.03	1.50	6–8	7.3	−0.54	0.5	88%
Torrey Chisari	University of Pennsylvania	3.06	2.19	10–5	12.0	−0.87	1.4	96%
Madeleine Rice	University of Pennsylvania	2.86	1.98	10–5	12.0	−0.87	1.4	96%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Old Dominion University	U. S. Naval Academy	54%
1	2	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Georgetown University	18%	upset
1	3	University of Pennsylvania	Fordham University	97%
1	4	Cornell University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	84%
1	5	Old Dominion University	Georgetown University	26%	upset
1	6	University of Pennsylvania	U. S. Naval Academy	91%
1	7	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	St. Mary's College of Maryland	28%	upset
1	8	Cornell University	Fordham University	97%
1	9	University of Pennsylvania	Georgetown University	74%
1	10	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	68%
1	11	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	86%
1	12	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Cornell University	8%	upset
1	13	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Pennsylvania	17%	upset
1	14	Georgetown University	Fordham University	95%
1	15	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Old Dominion University	45%	upset
1	16	U. S. Naval Academy	Cornell University	12%	upset
1	17	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Fordham University	92%
1	18	University of Pennsylvania	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	93%
1	19	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	79%
1	20	Cornell University	Old Dominion University	86%
1	21	Fordham University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	18%	upset
1	22	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	33%	upset
1	23	University of Pennsylvania	Old Dominion University	87%
1	24	Cornell University	Georgetown University	74%
1	25	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	55%
1	26	Old Dominion University	Fordham University	90%
1	27	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	65%
1	28	University of Pennsylvania	Cornell University	51%
2	29	Old Dominion University	U. S. Naval Academy	54%
2	30	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	82%
2	31	University of Pennsylvania	Fordham University	97%
2	32	Cornell University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	84%
2	33	Old Dominion University	Georgetown University	26%	upset
2	34	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Pennsylvania	10%	upset
2	35	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	72%
2	36	Cornell University	Fordham University	97%
2	37	Georgetown University	University of Pennsylvania	26%	upset
2	38	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	67%
2	39	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	86%
2	40	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Cornell University	8%	upset
2	41	University of Pennsylvania	St. Mary's College of Maryland	83%
2	42	Georgetown University	Fordham University	95%
2	43	Old Dominion University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	56%
2	44	Cornell University	U. S. Naval Academy	88%
2	45	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Fordham University	92%
2	46	University of Pennsylvania	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	93%
2	47	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	79%
2	48	Cornell University	Old Dominion University	86%
2	49	Fordham University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	18%	upset
2	50	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	33%	upset
2	51	University of Pennsylvania	Old Dominion University	87%
2	52	Cornell University	Georgetown University	74%
2	53	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Naval Academy	45%	upset
2	54	Old Dominion University	Fordham University	90%
2	55	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	65%
2	56	Cornell University	University of Pennsylvania	49%	upset
2	57	Cornell University	University of Pennsylvania	49%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Red	Quakers	Hoyas	Monarchs	Midshipmen	Statesmen	Seahawks	Rams
Cornell University Big Red	4–3	✕	L	W	W	L	L	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	6–1	W	✕	W	W	W	W	L	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	3–4	L	L	✕	L	W	L	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	3–4	L	L	W	✕	W	L	L	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	4–3	W	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	4–3	W	L	W	W	L	✕	W	L
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	3–4	L	W	L	W	L	L	✕	W
Fordham University Rams	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Red	Quakers	Hoyas	Monarchs	Midshipmen	Statesmen	Seahawks	Rams
Cornell University Big Red	7–1	✕	W	W	W	W	L	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	4–4	L	✕	L	W	L	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	5–2	L	W	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	4–3	L	L	W	✕	W	W	L	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3–4	L	W	L	L	✕	L	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	2–5	W	L	L	L	W	✕	L	L
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	3–4	L	L	L	W	L	W	✕	W
Fordham University Rams	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Monarchs	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
2	Statesmen	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
3	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
4	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6 DNF
5	Monarchs	2-3-5	def.	Hoyas	1-4-6
6	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
7	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
8	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
9	Quakers	1-2-6 DNF	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
10	Seahawks	1-4-5	def.	Monarchs	2-3-6
11	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
12	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
13	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Quakers	1-5-6
14	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6 DNF
15	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
16	Midshipmen	1-3-4	def.	Big Red	2-5-6
17	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
18	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
19	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
20	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
21	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
22	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
23	Quakers	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
24	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
25	Midshipmen	1-3-6	def.	Statesmen	2-4-5
26	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
27	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
28	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
29	Monarchs	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
30	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
31	Quakers	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
32	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
33	Monarchs	1-4-5	def.	Hoyas	2-3-6
34	Midshipmen	1-4-5	def.	Quakers	2-3-6
35	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
36	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
37	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
38	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
39	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
40	Statesmen	1-3-4	def.	Big Red	2-5-6
41	Quakers	1-4-5	def.	Seahawks	2-3-6
42	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
43	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
44	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
45	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
46	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
47	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
48	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
49	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
50	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
51	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
52	Big Red	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
53	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
54	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
55	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
56	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
57	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Cornell University	Big Red	Bridget Green '25 Lauren Ehnot '24 Sophia Devling '26 Winborne Majette '27	Sophia Mulvania '26 Kit Harned '27 Amelia Neumann '25 Sophia Pearce '26
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	Madeleine Rice '24 Sofia Segalla '25 Torrey Chisari '24	Hannah Bast '25 Eva Gonzalez-Whitehouse '26 Kiki Bruzzi '25 Anna Hoffman '26
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Kelly Bates '26 Morgan Rice '25 Piper Holthus '25	Margot Gordon '26 Louisa Buckingham '24 Addi Harris '24 Anna Brzezinski '27 Audrey Fung '24 Lucy Jervis '27
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Elizabeth Gildea '24 Gianna Dewey '27 Megan Geith '24	Morgan Auth '27 Cadence Goodnight '26 Allison Volk '25 Kristin Johnson '26 Lindsey Kaufmann '26 Emma Friedauer '26
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Aubin Hattendorf '24 Ava Farley '26 Eva Blauvelt '25	Catherine Aitken '24 Darby Dryden '27 Josephine Sherry '27 Eleanor Niehoff '26 Maggie Schuler '25 Mary Dwyer '27
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Brook Wood '25 Elizabeth Starck '25 Heather Kerns '24	Laura Therien '26 Maya Mahoney '27 Ella Donaldson '27 Stella Kim '27
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Cho-Cho Williams '26 Lily Flack '25 Madison Bashaw '24	Grace Phillips '27 Emily Shioutakon '26 Rachel O'Neill '24
Fordham University	Rams	Elizabeth Cutler '24 Isa Arrigo '27 Lizzie Cochran '27 Rebecca Keller '25	Ashley Abboud '26 Rebecca Keller '25 Alana Shigekane '27 Leah Spadaro '25

Conditions — 04/13/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 39% · Pressure 1010.5 hPa

Temperature

61°F

↑ 65°F ↓ 54°F

Feels like 51°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

14.8 kn

avg · max 17.8 kn

Gusts to 38.3 kn

From WNW (284°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover39% Sunshine8.0 hrs Humidity39% Pressure1010.5 hPa

What this breeze does at St. Mary's — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 16 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at St. Mary's in this breeze: a typical day (+0.01)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Mary's by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled fleet-race days at St. Mary's).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu