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Susan Rogers Women's Invite

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 2 43 43
2 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1 55 55
3 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 3 67 67
4 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 1 68 68
5 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 2 82 82
6 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 1 111 111
7 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1 114 114
8 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 4 142 142
9 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 3 154 154
10 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 155 155
11 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 5 157 157
12 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 2 158 158
13 SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 162 162
14 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 4 165 165
15 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2 201 201
16 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 3 227 227
17 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 237 237
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 TOT Sailors
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 2 3 4 3 4 3 3 5 7 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 43 Bridget Green '25
Kate Moran '27
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1 9 2 4 10 2 4 1 1 1 1 3 7 2 5 3 55 Madeleine Rice '24
Eva Gonzalez-Whitehouse '26
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 3 6 1 2 2 4 1 4 8 8 5 4 8 4 6 4 67 Sofia Segalla '25
Caroline Dannacher '25
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 1 2 9 5 7 1 2 3 3 6 11 2 5 3 2 7 68 J.J. Smith '24
Sophia Mulvania '26
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 2 1 8 7 1 8 14 2 5 2 2 6 14 7 3 2 82 Torrey Chisari '24
Kiki Bruzzi '25
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 1 4 11 8 6 7 11 8 4 7 10 5 10 5 7 8 111 Elizabeth Cutler '24
Leah Spadaro '25
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1 5 5 1 5 5 16 6 6 11 6 9 12 6 4 17 114 Annika Vanderhorst '27
Ruby Redmond '24
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 4 14 7 14 3 11 7 9 2 15 7 8 6 16 9 14 142 Adra Ivancich '26
Hannah Bast '25
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 3 12 10 12 14 13 10 7 10 5 8 16 3 11 14 9 154 Maya Conway '26 [1-12]
Ava Grace Sannino '26 [13-15]
Clara Hewson '24 [1-12]
Maeve Katics '26 [13-15]
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 DNS 6 9 11 15 8 14 13 10 12 7 2 12 12 6 155 Brook Wood '25 [1-15]
Stella Kim '27 [1-12]
Ella Donaldson '27 [13-15]
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 5 7 15 6 8 10 6 10 14 14 16 14 11 8 8 10 157 Margaux Cowles '27 [1-6, 13-15]
Annabelle Brameld '27 [7-12]
Anna Hoffman '26 [1-6, 13-15]
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 2 11 14 15 12 6 5 12 11 16 4 17 4 15 11 5 158 Lizzie Cochran '27
Ashley Abboud '26
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 10 12 10 13 9 9 13 12 4 15 10 13 9 10 13 162 Rebecca Runyan '25
Eva Leggett '24
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 4 8 3 11 9 17 12 11 9 12 9 11 15 10 13 15 165 Kit Harned '27
Sophia Fogarty '25
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2 13 13 16 17 12 13 15 15 9 13 12 9 17 15 12 201 Katherine Mason '27
Grace Jenkins '27
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 3 DNS 16 17 15 14 15 16 16 13 17 13 16 14 16 11 227 Samantha Hemans '27
Isa Arrigo '27
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 15 17 13 16 16 17 17 17 17 14 15 17 13 17 16 237 Bennett O'Keefe '27 [1-15]
Juliana Victor '26 [1-12]
Reilly Roedel '27 [13-15]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (27 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A15A
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 1111111222222333
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 2222222333333444
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 3333333444444555
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 4444444555555666
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams 1555555666666777
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams 2666666777777888
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams 3777777888888999
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1888888999999101010
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2999999101010101010111111
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1111111111111121212121212131313
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2121212121212131313131313141414
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers101010101010111111111111121212
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers 1131313131313141414141414151515
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers 2141414141414151515151515161616
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers 3151515151515161616161616171717
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers 4161616161616171717171717111
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers 5171717171717111111222

Conditions — 09/16/2023 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 67%  ·  Pressure 1016.3 hPa

Temperature

64°F
↑ 68°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 62°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.7 kn
avg  ·  max 9.7 kn
Gusts to 22.9 kn
From NNW (326°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover15% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity67% Pressure1016.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 10 kn · S 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Cornell: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.09 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.17
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.04 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Cornell by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled days at Cornell).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →