| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Cornell University | Big Red | 11–1 |
| 2 |  |
University of Pennsylvania | Quakers | 7–5 |
| 3 |  |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Herons | 4–8 |
| 4 |  |
U. S. Naval Academy | Women | 2–10 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 20,646 team race matches sailed before 2023-04-01, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 20 of 24 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.499 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.04 ± 0.37: a typical event, more orderly than 38% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cornell University Big Red | 1 | 8.87 school −0.17, home +0.41 | Bridget Green / Gabbi Delbello 3.36 Meredith Moran / Sophia Pearce 2.65 8–0 J.J. Smith / Amelia Neumann 2.60 8–0 Meredith Moran / Amelia Neumann 2.56 3–1 J.J. Smith / Lucija Ruzevic 2.65 3–1 | 88% | 11–1 (92%) | +0.5 |
| 2 | University of Pennsylvania Quakers | 2 | 7.43 school +0.34 | Torrey Chisari / Hannah Bast 2.73 Madeleine Rice / Anna Hoffman 2.43 Adra Ivancich / Kiki Bruzzi | 53% | 7–5 (58%) | +0.6 |
| 3 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges Herons | 4 | 6.00 school +0.14 | Heather Kerns / Frances Depke 2.29 Brook Wood / Valyn Mogensen 1.84 3–5 Elizabeth Starck / Ksenia Lowry-Neufeld 1.71 3–5 Brook Wood / Ksenia Lowry-Neufeld 1.83 1–3 Elizabeth Starck / Laura Therien 1.69 1–3 | 18% | 4–8 (33%) | +1.9 |
| 4 | U. S. Naval Academy Women | 3 | 7.00 school +0.34 | Aubin Hattendorf / Catherine Aitken 1.75 Ava Farley / Linnea Forsberg 2.11 Eva Blauvelt / Julia Christie 2.77 | 42% | 2–10 (17%) | −3.0 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges | 6.00 | 6.94 | 4–8 | 2.1 | +0.94 | 1.4 | 14% |
| 1 | Cornell University | 8.87 | 9.33 | 11–1 | 10.5 | +0.46 | 0.2 | 55% |
| 2 | University of Pennsylvania | 7.43 | 7.71 | 7–5 | 6.4 | +0.28 | 0.1 | 48% |
| 4 | U. S. Naval Academy | 7.00 | 5.41 | 2–10 | 5.0 | −1.58 | 3.2 | 99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Chisari | University of Pennsylvania | 2.73 | 3.00 | 7–5 | 6.4 | +0.28 | 0.1 | 48% |
| Madeleine Rice | University of Pennsylvania | 2.43 | 2.70 | 7–5 | 6.4 | +0.28 | 0.1 | 48% |
| Adra Ivancich | University of Pennsylvania | 1.90 | 2.17 | 7–5 | 6.4 | +0.28 | 0.1 | 48% |
| Aubin Hattendorf | U. S. Naval Academy | 1.75 | 0.16 | 2–10 | 5.0 | −1.58 | 3.2 | 99% |
| Ava Farley | U. S. Naval Academy | 2.11 | 0.53 | 2–10 | 5.0 | −1.58 | 3.2 | 99% |
| Eva Blauvelt | U. S. Naval Academy | 2.77 | 1.18 | 2–10 | 5.0 | −1.58 | 3.2 | 99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Red | Quakers | Herons | Women | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cornell University Big Red | 11–1 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| University of Pennsylvania Quakers | 7–5 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Herons | 4–8 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| U. S. Naval Academy Women | 2–10 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Women | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Herons | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Big Red | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Quakers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Herons | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Big Red | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Women | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Quakers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Women | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Big Red | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Herons | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Women | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Herons | 2-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Big Red | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Herons | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Quakers | 2-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Big Red | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Women | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Quakers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Women | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Herons | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Big Red | 2-3-6 |
| 13 | |
Herons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Women | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Big Red | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Quakers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Herons | 2-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Big Red | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Women | 3-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Quakers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Women | 1-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Big Red | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Herons | 2-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Herons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Women | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Big Red | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Quakers | 1-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Quakers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Herons | 3-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Big Red | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Women | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Quakers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Women | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Big Red | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Herons | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Cornell University | Big Red | Bridget Green '25 J.J. Smith '24 Meredith Moran '23 |
Gabbi Delbello '23 Lucija Ruzevic '24 Amelia Neumann '25 Sophia Pearce '26 |
|
University of Pennsylvania | Quakers | Adra Ivancich '26 Madeleine Rice '24 Torrey Chisari '24 |
Kiki Bruzzi '25 Anna Hoffman '26 Hannah Bast '25 |
|
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Herons | Brook Wood '25 Elizabeth Starck '25 Heather Kerns '24 |
Valyn Mogensen '26 Ksenia Lowry-Neufeld '25 Laura Therien '26 Frances Depke '25 |
|
U. S. Naval Academy | Women | Aubin Hattendorf '24 Ava Farley '26 Eva Blauvelt '25 |
Catherine Aitken '24 Linnea Forsberg '25 Julia Christie '24 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
