| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen | 7–1 |
| 2 |  |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Statesmen | 6–2 |
| 3 |  |
University of Pennsylvania | Quakers | 3–5 |
| 4 |  |
George Washington University | Revolutionaries | 3–5 |
| 5 |  |
Old Dominion University | Monarchs | 1–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 25,143 team race matches sailed before 2025-03-01, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 15 of 20 matches (75%) with a log-loss of 0.497 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.10 ± 0.46: a typical event, more orderly than 53% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges | 9.05 | 10.30 | 6–2 | 4.3 | +1.26 | 1.5 | 16% |
| 4 | George Washington University | 8.02 | 8.59 | 3–5 | 2.1 | +0.58 | 0.4 | 36% |
| 1 | U. S. Naval Academy | 10.86 | 10.57 | 7–1 | 7.2 | −0.28 | 0.0 | 82% |
| 3 | University of Pennsylvania | 8.75 | 8.29 | 3–5 | 3.7 | −0.46 | 0.2 | 84% |
| 5 | Old Dominion University | 8.25 | 6.88 | 1–7 | 2.6 | −1.37 | 1.5 | 97% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jedidiah Bechtel | George Washington University | 2.64 | 3.22 | 3–5 | 2.1 | +0.58 | 0.4 | 36% |
| Drew D’Orsi | University of Pennsylvania | 2.27 | 1.82 | 3–5 | 3.7 | −0.46 | 0.2 | 84% |
| Diogo Silva | Old Dominion University | 2.64 | 1.26 | 1–7 | 2.6 | −1.37 | 1.5 | 97% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Midshipmen | Statesmen | Quakers | Revolutionaries | Monarchs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 4–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 3–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| University of Pennsylvania Quakers | 0–4 | L | L | ✕ | L | L |
| George Washington University Revolutionaries | 2–2 | L | L | W | ✕ | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 1–3 | L | L | W | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Midshipmen | Statesmen | Quakers | Revolutionaries | Monarchs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 3–1 | ✕ | W | L | W | W |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 3–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| University of Pennsylvania Quakers | 3–1 | W | L | ✕ | W | W |
| George Washington University Revolutionaries | 1–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 0–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Revolutionaries | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Revolutionaries | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Quakers | 1-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Revolutionaries | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Revolutionaries | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-6 DNF | def. | |
Quakers | 3-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Revolutionaries | 3-4-6 DNF |
| 12 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Revolutionaries | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Monarchs | 2-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Statesmen | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Quakers | 1-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Revolutionaries | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Quakers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 2-3-6 |
| 17 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Monarchs | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Quakers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Revolutionaries | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Monarchs | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Quakers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen | Henry Allgeier '27 Jack Welburn '26 Nathan Smith '26 |
Fiona Cullen '27 Ellie Alex '26 Darby Graham '26 Ryan Wahba '25 |
|
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Statesmen | James Kopack '28 Jj Klempen '27 Juan Carlos Lacerda Jones '26 |
Frances Depke '25 Cooper Delbridge '26 Rachel Duggan '25 Henry Breslin '27 Stella Kim '27 Elijah Goldman '26 |
|
University of Pennsylvania | Quakers | Cole Woodworth '26 Drew D’Orsi '28 Jackson Mcaliley '27 |
Eva Gonzalez-Whitehouse '26 Sadie Yoder '28 Kiki Bruzzi '25 |
|
George Washington University | Revolutionaries | Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia '26 Jedidiah Bechtel '26 Tryg Van Wyk '26 Tyler Wood '26 |
Brooke Kelley '28 Ella Adelman '26 Sam Schuhwerk '27 Hayden Clary '28 |
|
Old Dominion University | Monarchs | Blake Goodwin '27 Diogo Silva '26 Pierce Brindley '28 |
Cadence Goodnight '26 Molly Hanson '27 Emil Body-Goldberg '27 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
