| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Boston College | Eagles | 9–1 |
| 2 |  |
Georgetown University | Hoyas | 9–1 |
| 3 |  |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Statesmen | 4–6 |
| 4 |  |
Roger Williams University | Hawks | 4–6 |
| 5 |  |
Old Dominion University | Monarchs | 4–6 |
| 5 |  |
University of Pennsylvania | Quakers | 4–6 |
| 7 |  |
Fordham University | Rams | 3–7 |
| 8 |  |
Connecticut College | Camels | 3–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 28,606 team race matches sailed before 2026-03-07, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 28 of 38 matches (74%) with a log-loss of 0.475 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.44 ± 0.36: an orderly event, more orderly than 89% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boston College | 10.96 | 12.59 | 9–1 | 6.9 | +1.63 | 2.2 | 10% |
| 5 | Old Dominion University | 8.47 | 9.08 | 4–6 | 2.8 | +0.61 | 0.5 | 30% |
| 3 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges | 9.62 | 10.20 | 5–5 | 3.9 | +0.58 | 0.5 | 31% |
| 2 | Georgetown University | 11.27 | 11.50 | 9–2 | 8.6 | +0.23 | 0.1 | 56% |
| 8 | Connecticut College | 8.67 | 8.50 | 3–7 | 3.3 | −0.17 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 4 | Roger Williams University | 9.93 | 9.16 | 4–7 | 5.7 | −0.77 | 1.0 | 93% |
| 5 | University of Pennsylvania | 9.67 | 8.82 | 3–5 | 4.3 | −0.85 | 0.8 | 93% |
| 7 | Fordham University | 8.68 | 7.34 | 1–5 | 2.4 | −1.34 | 1.3 | 96% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Eagles | Hoyas | Statesmen | Hawks | Monarchs | Quakers | Rams | Camels | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College Eagles | 8–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 6–2 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 4–3 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | L | W |
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 3–4 | L | L | L | ✕ | L | W | W | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 2–5 | L | L | L | W | ✕ | L | W | L |
| University of Pennsylvania Quakers | 3–4 | L | L | L | L | W | ✕ | W | W |
| Fordham University Rams | 2–5 | L | L | W | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Connecticut College Camels | 1–6 | L | L | L | L | W | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Statesmen | Hawks | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 1–0 | ✕ | W |
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 0–1 | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Eagles | Hoyas | Statesmen | Hawks | Monarchs | Quakers | Rams | Camels | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College Eagles | 2–1 | ✕ | L | W | W | – | – | – | – |
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 3–0 | W | ✕ | W | W | – | – | – | – |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 0–3 | L | L | ✕ | L | – | – | – | – |
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 1–2 | L | L | W | ✕ | – | – | – | – |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 2–1 | – | – | – | – | ✕ | W | W | L |
| University of Pennsylvania Quakers | 1–2 | – | – | – | – | L | ✕ | L | W |
| Fordham University Rams | 1–2 | – | – | – | – | L | W | ✕ | L |
| Connecticut College Camels | 2–1 | – | – | – | – | W | L | W | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Hawks | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Camels | 2-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Quakers | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Camels | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Quakers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Monarchs | 1-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hawks | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Camels | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Monarchs | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Quakers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Camels | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Hawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Monarchs | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Statesmen | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Hawks | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Quakers | 2-3-6 |
| 18 | |
Camels | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 2-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Rams | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Statesmen | 1-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hoyas | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-4-5 |
| 23 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Camels | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hawks | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Quakers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Camels | 3-4-6 |
| 36 | |
Eagles | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Hoyas | 1-4-6 |
| 35 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Hawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Statesmen | 1-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Hoyas | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Eagles | 1-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Rams | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Quakers | 1-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Camels | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 2-4-6 |
| 39 | |
Quakers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Camels | 3-4-6 |
| 40 | |
Monarchs | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Rams | 2-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Camels | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Rams | 1-4-6 |
| 42 | |
Monarchs | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Quakers | 2-4-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
