Princeton University '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.01 (fleet 1.44) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.03 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 10–17 (37%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 1 | 0–7 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 4–7 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 6–3 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (27 matches) the record is 10–17 against 12.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-16 | Washington College Open Team Race | skipper | 1.28 | -1.72 | 0–7 | 2.1 | ≤−3.00 | 4.3 | >99% |
| 2023-03-04 | Tom Noble Team Race | skipper | 0.57 | 0.65 | 4–7 | 3.9 | +0.08 | 0.0 | 60% |
| 2022-03-05 | Tom Noble Team Race | skipper | 0.03 | -0.11 | 6–3 | 6.2 | −0.14 | 0.0 | 73% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Seawolf Women's Open Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.0 | 2.08 |
| MAISA Spring Women's Fleet Race Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 12.4 | 0.81 |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Regatta at KP Invite Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 13.7 | — |
| Stu Nelson@ Connecticut College Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 11.3 | 1.98 |
| MAISA Women's Fall Dinghy Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 11.8 | 1.16 |
| Jesuit Invite | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.9 | -1.24 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Open Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 0% | — |
| Seawolf Women's Spring Open Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 1.2 | 3.59 |
| MAISA Spring Women's Fleet Race Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.0 | 1.84 |
| CNU Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.1 | 0.36 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Regatta at KP Invite Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 11.5 | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 11 | 13.4 | 0.51 |
| McCurdy Memorial | Skipper | A | 12 | 3.7 | 1.34 |
| MAISA Women's Fall Dinghy Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 10.9 | 0.50 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Tom Noble Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 47% | — |
| Delaware River Dinghy Regatta | Skipper | A | 11 | 3.2 | 1.88 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Princeton Fall Open | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.0 | -0.29 |
| Kings Point Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 11.4 | — |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Tom Noble Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 67% | — |
| MAISA Spring Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 12.4 | -0.57 |
| Engineer's Cup | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.1 | -0.40 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Fall | Skipper | B | 9 | 9.0 | -0.11 |
| Philly Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 4 | 9.5 | -1.07 |
| John Quinn | Skipper | B | 5 | 9.0 | 0.72 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
