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Tom Noble Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 14–1
2 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 11–4
3 Washington College Washington College Shoremen 8–7
4 Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 7–8
5 Florida Institute of Technology Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 6–6
6 Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 1–10
7 University of Delaware University of Delaware Blue Hens 0–11

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 19,057 team race matches sailed before 2023-03-04, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 44 of 48 matches (92%) with a log-loss of 0.283 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.14 ± 0.26: a typical event, more orderly than 58% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1U. S. Naval Academy
Midshipmen		17.57
school +0.47		Caden Scheiblauer / Darby Graham 2.44 12–1
Robert Ziman / Hunter Anderson 2.07 12–0
Tanner Kelly / Alexander Brenia 2.50 9–1
Tanner Kelly / Eleanor Niehoff 2.50 5–0
Robert Ziman / Eleanor Niehoff 1.96 2–1
Caden Scheiblauer / Eleanor Niehoff 2.45 2–0		92%14–1 (93%)+0.2
2St. Mary's College of Maryland
Seahawks		26.34
school +0.28		Max Kleha / Emily Shioutakon
Miles Wolff / Shannon Brecher
Jonathan Weed / Lillian Newman		74%11–4 (73%)−0.1
3Washington College
Shoremen		35.33
school −0.15, home +0.36		Joseph Bonacci / Emma Macturk 1.41
Stewart Gurnell / Kennedy Jones 2.59
Jonathan Kelly / Andrew Tran		56%8–7 (53%)−0.5
4Princeton University
Tigers		44.94
school −0.13		Connor Mraz / Virginia Cobbs 2.61 6–7
Carly Mraz / Robert Rubin 0.57 4–7
Asher Green / Kaitlyn Greppin 3–8
Bryan Lawrence / Cole Crosby 1.12 4–0
Asher Green / Robert Rubin 2–0
Connor Mraz / Berkley Yiu 2.63 1–1
William Roberts / Hali Liu 1–1		49%7–8 (47%)−0.4
5Florida Institute of Technology
Panthers		53.56Brendan Smucker / Hattie Lechner
Brandon Depalma / Alvin Tang
Sofia Scarpa / William Mullray		37%6–6 (50%)+1.6
6Drexel University
Dragons		62.14Kieran Elliott / Evelyn Carpenter
Yanni Tsetsekos / Henry Nguyen
Iain Shand / Charlotte Shaw		19%2–10 (17%)−0.3
7University of Delaware
Blue Hens		70.67
school −0.11		Pearce Bragaw / Ian Kaplan
David Berson / John Fulkerson
Tamryn Whyte / Quinn Joy -0.28		4%0–12 (0%)−0.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
5Florida Institute of Technology3.564.776–64.4+1.211.514%
1U. S. Naval Academy7.577.8314–113.7+0.260.064%
2St. Mary's College of Maryland6.346.2711–411.1−0.070.070%
4Princeton University4.944.737–87.4−0.210.174%
3Washington College5.335.098–78.5−0.240.176%
6Drexel University2.141.752–102.3−0.390.183%
7University of Delaware0.67-2.330–120.5≤−3.000.8>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Bryan LawrencePrinceton University1.124.124–03.8≥+3.000.381%
Brendan SmuckerFlorida Institute of Technology1.502.706–64.4+1.211.514%
Brandon DepalmaFlorida Institute of Technology0.741.946–64.4+1.211.514%
Tanner KellyU. S. Naval Academy2.502.7614–113.7+0.260.064%
Carly MrazPrinceton University0.570.654–73.9+0.080.060%
Max KlehaSt. Mary's College of Maryland1.561.4811–411.1−0.070.070%
Connor MrazPrinceton University2.612.407–87.4−0.210.174%
Joseph BonacciWashington College1.411.178–78.5−0.240.176%
Jonathan KellyWashington College1.030.798–78.5−0.240.176%
Asher GreenPrinceton University1.701.365–85.6−0.340.179%
Yanni TsetsekosDrexel University0.01-0.382–102.3−0.390.183%
Pearce BragawUniversity of Delaware0.26-2.740–120.5≤−3.000.8>99%
Tamryn WhyteUniversity of Delaware-0.28-3.280–120.5≤−3.000.8>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11U. S. Naval AcademyFlorida Institute of Technology99%
12Princeton UniversityDrexel University93%
13St. Mary's College of MarylandUniversity of Delaware100%
14Washington CollegeFlorida Institute of Technology87%
15U. S. Naval AcademyDrexel University100%
16Princeton UniversityUniversity of Delaware99%
17St. Mary's College of MarylandWashington College69%
18Florida Institute of TechnologyDrexel University81%
19U. S. Naval AcademyUniversity of Delaware100%
110Princeton UniversitySt. Mary's College of Maryland21%upset
111Washington CollegeDrexel University96%
112Florida Institute of TechnologyUniversity of Delaware95%
113U. S. Naval AcademySt. Mary's College of Maryland79%
114Washington CollegePrinceton University61%
115Drexel UniversityUniversity of Delaware81%
116St. Mary's College of MarylandFlorida Institute of Technology94%
117Princeton UniversityU. S. Naval Academy7%upset
118Washington CollegeUniversity of Delaware99%
119St. Mary's College of MarylandDrexel University98%
120Florida Institute of TechnologyPrinceton University23%upset
121U. S. Naval AcademyWashington College91%
222U. S. Naval AcademyFlorida Institute of Technology98%
223Princeton UniversityDrexel University89%
224St. Mary's College of MarylandUniversity of Delaware100%
225Florida Institute of TechnologyWashington College16%upset
226U. S. Naval AcademyDrexel University100%
227Princeton UniversityUniversity of Delaware99%
228St. Mary's College of MarylandWashington College74%
229Florida Institute of TechnologyDrexel University80%
230U. S. Naval AcademyUniversity of Delaware100%
231St. Mary's College of MarylandPrinceton University81%
232Washington CollegeDrexel University95%
233Florida Institute of TechnologyUniversity of Delaware95%
234U. S. Naval AcademySt. Mary's College of Maryland76%
235Washington CollegePrinceton University58%
236Drexel UniversityUniversity of Delaware82%
237St. Mary's College of MarylandFlorida Institute of Technology94%
238U. S. Naval AcademyPrinceton University92%
239Washington CollegeUniversity of Delaware99%
240St. Mary's College of MarylandDrexel University98%
241Princeton UniversityFlorida Institute of Technology77%
242U. S. Naval AcademyWashington College91%
243St. Mary's College of MarylandWashington College76%
244U. S. Naval AcademyPrinceton University92%
245St. Mary's College of MarylandPrinceton University81%
246U. S. Naval AcademyWashington College91%
247Washington CollegePrinceton University57%
248U. S. Naval AcademySt. Mary's College of Maryland75%

Round 1

TeamRec.MidshipmenSeahawksShoremenTigersPanthersDragonsHens
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen5–1✕WWLWWW
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks4–2L✕WLWWW
Washington College Shoremen4–2LL✕WWWW
Princeton University Tigers4–2WWL✕LWW
Florida Institute of Technology Panthers3–3LLLW✕WW
Drexel University Dragons1–5LLLLL✕W
University of Delaware Blue Hens0–6LLLLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.MidshipmenSeahawksShoremenTigersPanthersDragonsHens
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen9–0✕WWWWWW
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks7–2L✕WWWWW
Washington College Shoremen4–5LL✕WLWW
Princeton University Tigers3–6LLL✕WWW
Florida Institute of Technology Panthers3–3LLWL✕WW
Drexel University Dragons1–5LLLLL✕W
University of Delaware Blue Hens0–6LLLLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-3 def. Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 4-5-6
2 Princeton University Tigers 1-3-4 def. Drexel University Dragons 2-5-6 DNF
3 St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1-2-3 def. University of Delaware Blue Hens 4-5-6 DNF
4 Washington College Shoremen 1-2-4 def. Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 3-5-6
5 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-3 def. Drexel University Dragons 4-5-6 DNF,DNF
6 Princeton University Tigers 1-2-5 def. University of Delaware Blue Hens 3-4-6 DNF
7 St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1-2-3 def. Washington College Shoremen 4-5-6
8 Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 1-2-3 def. Drexel University Dragons 4-5-6
9 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-3 def. University of Delaware Blue Hens 4-5-6 DNF
10 Princeton University Tigers 1-3-6 def. St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2-4-5 DSQ
11 Washington College Shoremen 1-2-3 def. Drexel University Dragons 4-5-6
12 Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 1-3-4 def. University of Delaware Blue Hens 2-5-6
13 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-6 def. St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3-4-5
14 Washington College Shoremen 1-4-5 def. Princeton University Tigers 2-3-6
15 Drexel University Dragons 1-4-6 DNS def. University of Delaware Blue Hens 2-3-5 DNS
16 St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1-2-3 def. Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 4-5-6
17 Princeton University Tigers 1-2-6 def. U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3-4-5
18 Washington College Shoremen 1-2-3 def. University of Delaware Blue Hens 4-5-6
19 St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1-3-5 def. Drexel University Dragons 2-4-6
20 Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 2-3-4 def. Princeton University Tigers 1-5-6
21 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-6 def. Washington College Shoremen 3-4-5
22 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-6 def. Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 3-4-5 DSQ
23 Princeton University Tigers 1-2-3 def. Drexel University Dragons 4-5-6
24 St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1-2-5 def. University of Delaware Blue Hens 3-4-6
25 Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 1-2-4 def. Washington College Shoremen 3-5-6
26 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-3 def. Drexel University Dragons 4-5-6
27 Princeton University Tigers 1-2-4 def. University of Delaware Blue Hens 3-5-6
28 St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1-2-4 def. Washington College Shoremen 3-5-6
29 Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 1-2-6 def. Drexel University Dragons 3-4-5
30 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-3 def. University of Delaware Blue Hens 4-5-6
31 St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1-2-5 def. Princeton University Tigers 3-4-6
32 Washington College Shoremen 1-2-5 def. Drexel University Dragons 3-4-6
33 Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 1-2-3 def. University of Delaware Blue Hens 4-5-6
34 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-3 def. St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 4-5-6
35 Washington College Shoremen 1-2-3 def. Princeton University Tigers 4-5-6
36 Drexel University Dragons 1-2-5 def. University of Delaware Blue Hens 3-4-6
37 St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2-4-5 def. Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 1-3-6 DSQ
38 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-3 def. Princeton University Tigers 4-5-6
39 Washington College Shoremen 1-2-5 def. University of Delaware Blue Hens 3-4-6
40 St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1-2-3 def. Drexel University Dragons 4-5-6
41 Princeton University Tigers 1-2-6 def. Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 3-4-5
42 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-3 def. Washington College Shoremen 4-5-6
43 St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1-2-5 def. Washington College Shoremen 3-4-6
44 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-4 def. Princeton University Tigers 3-5-6
45 St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1-2-5 def. Princeton University Tigers 3-4-6
46 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-4-5 def. Washington College Shoremen 2-3-6
47 Washington College Shoremen 1-3-6 def. Princeton University Tigers 2-4-5
48 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-6 def. St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3-4-5

Conditions — 03/04/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 53%  ·  Pressure 1004.9 hPa

Temperature

50°F
↑ 52°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 38°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
16.9 kn
avg  ·  max 20.3 kn
Gusts to 39.1 kn
From WNW (296°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover52% Sunshine8.3 hrs Humidity53% Pressure1004.9 hPa

What this breeze does at Washington College — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 17 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Washington College in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.05)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Washington College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (17 labelled fleet-race days at Washington College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →