Drexel University '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.20 (fleet 0.28) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 2–10 (17%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 2–10 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (12 matches) the record is 2–10 against 2.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-04 | Tom Noble Team Race | skipper | 0.01 | -0.38 | 2–10 | 2.3 | −0.39 | 0.1 | 83% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Tom Noble Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 8% | — |
| Ocean County Spring Open | Skipper | A | 5 | 6.2 | 1.33 |
| Drexel Open | Skipper | A | 2 | 2.5 | 1.06 |
| Delaware Spring Open | Crew | A | 4 | 3.2 | -0.17 |
| America Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 17.6 | -1.32 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Mccurdy Memorial | Crew | B | 2 | 6.0 | — |
| Luce Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 11.9 | -1.23 |
| The John Quinn Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.0 | -0.37 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Drexel Open | Skipper | B | 2 | 5.0 | -1.53 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Fall | Skipper | B | 9 | 9.4 | -0.29 |
| McCurdy Memorial | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.0 | 0.59 |
| Luce Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 13.3 | -0.62 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Fall | Skipper | A | 4 | 8.8 | 0.34 |
| McCurdy Memorial | Skipper | A | 11 | 4.7 | -0.19 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Drexel Open | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.7 | 0.28 |
| Delaware Spring Open | Skipper | B | 10 | 3.2 | 0.40 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
