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The John Quinn Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 19 11 30
2 Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 1 23 38 61
3 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2 25 38 63
4 George Washington University George Washington University Buff and Blue 51 36 87
5 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1 51 40 91
6 Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 2 73 55 128
7 Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 60 86 146
8 Monmouth University Monmouth University Hawks 61 87 148
9 Loyola University Maryland Loyola University Maryland Greyhounds 90 80 170
10 Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 90 91 181
11 University of Delaware University of Delaware Blue Hens 103 98 201
12 Retrievers Retrievers Retrievers 150 MRP 150 MRP 300 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 2 1 BKD 2 1 1 2 5 1 2 19 Payne Donaldson '24
Kenna Reed '24
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 1 1 2 1 4 3 3 1 3 BKD 3 23 Connor Mraz '23
Nelson Chow '23
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2 4 3 2 1 2 5 3 1 3 1 25 Cole Tillson '26
Caleb Keister '26
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1 3 5 7 6 4 2 4 9 7 4 51 Lewis Bragg '26
Andrew Campbell '23
George Washington University George Washington University Buff and Blue 5 7 4 3 9 4 6 2 6 5 51 Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia '26 [1-6]
Jedidiah Bechtel '26 [7-10]
Elizabeth Ellis '24 [1-6]
Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 7 4 6 8 8 6 5 6 2 8 60 Joe Cooner '23
Olivia Pasquale '23
Monmouth University Monmouth University Hawks 9 8 3 5 5 9 7 4 5 6 61 Abigail Brooks '23 [1-2]
Patrick Cashin '24 [3-10]
Cheyenne Fair '25 [1-3]
Isabella Hughes '24 [4-10]
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 2 6 6 8 7 7 8 11 7 4 9 73 Richard Kertatos '26 [1-10]
Isabel Kim '24 [1-8]
Hali Liu '25 [9-10]
Loyola University Maryland Loyola University Maryland Greyhounds 8 9 9 9 10 7 8 10 10 10 90 Clare Leeper '23 [1-10]
Amelia Dunat '25 [1-4]
Moira Mckinley '24 [5-8]
William Crabtree '25 [9-10]
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons DNS DNS 5 10 6 10 10 8 8 7 90 Yanni Tsetsekos '23
Chris Bahr '26
University of Delaware University of Delaware Blue Hens 10 10 10 11 11 11 9 11 9 11 103 Ethan Deutsch '25
Phillip Furlong '25
Retrievers Retrievers Retrievers DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 150 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 11 Rayne Duff '25
Kadi Zheng '24
George Washington University George Washington University Buff and Blue 6 3 3 2 4 7 2 2 4 3 36 Tryg Van Wyk '26
Ella Adelman '26
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 1 3 4 6 7 3 5 3 3 2 2 38 Asher Green '24
Anna Eaton '24
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2 5 2 2 4 5 3 4 5 3 5 38 William Hussey '26
William Tetrev '26
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1 2 5 5 3 1 4 7 4 5 4 40 Charlie Lawrence '26
Caelan Mcmichael '26
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 2 4 6 7 5 6 2 5 6 6 8 55 Eddie O’Keefe '25 [1-10]
Calif Chen '23 [1-2, 5-10]
Hali Liu '25 [3-4]
Loyola University Maryland Loyola University Maryland Greyhounds 8 7 4 6 8 10 9 10 8 10 80 Luke Plecinoga '25 [1-4, 9-10]
Caroline Fortier '23 [5-8]
Mary Geise '24 [1-4, 9-10]
Jackson Martin '25 [5-8]
Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 10 9 9 8 7 6 11 7 10 9 86 Ella Kilgore '25 [1-10]
Noah Turkel '23 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Bobby Stevens '25 [3-4, 7-8]
Monmouth University Monmouth University Hawks 11 11 8 11 10 8 6 8 7 7 87 Abigail Eck '24 [1-3]
Sarah Ward '24 [4-10]
Maddie Woolley '24 [1-3]
Joseph Bitterman '25 [4-10]
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 7 8 11 9 11 9 8 11 11 6 91 Ben Muchin '24
Lillian Cardonne '23
University of Delaware University of Delaware Blue Hens 9 10 10 10 9 11 10 9 9 11 98 Evan Walter '23
Joey Betz '24
Retrievers Retrievers Retrievers DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 150 MRP
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
University of DelawareUniversity of Delaware Blue Hens991111113355
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons1133557799
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Buff and Blue22141466881010
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1779911111133
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 28810101212221414
Loyola University MarylandLoyola University Maryland Greyhounds335577991111
RetrieversRetrievers Retrievers1010121222141466
Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University Hawks1414668810101212
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers 1557799111111
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers 266881010121222
Villanova UniversityVillanova University Wildcats111111335577
Webb InstituteWebb Institute Clippers12122214146688

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
University of DelawareUniversity of Delaware Blue Hens1010121222141466
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons22141466881010
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Buff and Blue335577991111
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 18810101212221414
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2991111113355
Loyola University MarylandLoyola University Maryland Greyhounds1414668810101212
RetrieversRetrievers Retrievers111111335577
Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University Hawks557799111111
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers 166881010121222
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers 2779911111133
Villanova UniversityVillanova University Wildcats12122214146688
Webb InstituteWebb Institute Clippers1133557799
School / Team SkipperCrew
Drexel University Drexel University Yanni Tsetsekos '23 Chris Bahr '26
Dragons Ben Muchin '24 Lillian Cardonne '23
George Washington University George Washington University Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia '26 [1-6]
Jedidiah Bechtel '26 [7-10]		 Elizabeth Ellis '24 [1-6]
Buff and Blue Tryg Van Wyk '26 Ella Adelman '26
Loyola University Maryland Loyola University Maryland Clare Leeper '23 [1-10] Amelia Dunat '25 [1-4]
Moira Mckinley '24 [5-8]
William Crabtree '25 [9-10]
Greyhounds Luke Plecinoga '25 [1-4, 9-10]
Caroline Fortier '23 [5-8]		 Mary Geise '24 [1-4, 9-10]
Jackson Martin '25 [5-8]
Monmouth University Monmouth University Abigail Brooks '23 [1-2]
Patrick Cashin '24 [3-10]		 Cheyenne Fair '25 [1-3]
Isabella Hughes '24 [4-10]
Hawks Abigail Eck '24 [1-3]
Sarah Ward '24 [4-10]		 Maddie Woolley '24 [1-3]
Joseph Bitterman '25 [4-10]
Princeton University Princeton University Connor Mraz '23 Nelson Chow '23
Tigers 1 Asher Green '24 Anna Eaton '24
Princeton University Princeton University Richard Kertatos '26 [1-10] Isabel Kim '24 [1-8]
Hali Liu '25 [9-10]
Tigers 2 Eddie O’Keefe '25 [1-10] Calif Chen '23 [1-2, 5-10]
Hali Liu '25 [3-4]
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Lewis Bragg '26 Andrew Campbell '23
Mariners 1 Charlie Lawrence '26 Caelan Mcmichael '26
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Cole Tillson '26 Caleb Keister '26
Mariners 2 William Hussey '26 William Tetrev '26
University of Delaware University of Delaware Ethan Deutsch '25 Phillip Furlong '25
Blue Hens Evan Walter '23 Joey Betz '24
Villanova University Villanova University Joe Cooner '23 Olivia Pasquale '23
Wildcats Ella Kilgore '25 [1-10] Noah Turkel '23 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Bobby Stevens '25 [3-4, 7-8]
Webb Institute Webb Institute Payne Donaldson '24 Kenna Reed '24
Clippers Rayne Duff '25 Kadi Zheng '24

Conditions — 09/17/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 67%  ·  Pressure 1024.3 hPa

Temperature

71°F
↑ 72°F   ↓ 67°F
Feels like 71°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.7 kn
avg  ·  max 7.9 kn
Gusts to 18.5 kn
From ESE (104°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover44% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity67% Pressure1024.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Monmouth: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.08
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.08 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Monmouth by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 12 labelled days at Monmouth, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →