Princeton University '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.93 (fleet 1.33) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.03 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 24–46 (34%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 2 | 2–20 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 3 | 12–9 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 2 | 10–17 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (68 matches) the record is 24–44 against 27.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-16 | Washington College Open Team Race | skipper | 1.23 | -1.77 | 0–7 | 2.1 | ≤−3.00 | 4.3 | >99% |
| 2024-03-02 | Navy Team Race Invite | skipper | 1.11 | 0.63 | 2–13 | 2.9 | −0.48 | 0.3 | 83% |
| 2023-03-18 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 1.10 | 1.61 | 8–7 | 6.6 | +0.50 | 0.5 | 30% |
| 2023-03-04 | Tom Noble Team Race | skipper | 1.12 | 4.12 | 4–0 | 3.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.3 | 81% |
| 2022-03-19 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 1.18 | -0.07 | 2–13 | 4.8 | −1.25 | 2.3 | 98% |
| 2022-03-05 | Tom Noble Team Race | skipper | 0.87 | 1.25 | 8–4 | 7.2 | +0.37 | 0.2 | 42% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Open Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 0% | — |
| Navy Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 15 | 0% | — |
| Grant Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.5 | 0.89 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Fall | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.7 | 0.44 |
| Luce Trophy | Skipper | B | 2 | 2.5 | 3.40 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Wood Trophy Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 14% | — |
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 67% | — |
| Tom Noble Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 47% | — |
| Ocean County Spring Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.4 | 1.23 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Fall Open | Skipper | A | 9 | 9.3 | 0.77 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 16.0 | — |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 13% | — |
| Tom Noble Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 67% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 2 | 17.0 | -0.48 |
| Philly Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.8 | 1.63 |
| Kings Point Dinghy Open | Skipper | B | 9 | 11.7 | 1.33 |
| John Quinn | Skipper | B | 5 | 8.4 | 0.94 |
| David Lee Arnoff Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 11.4 | 1.12 |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Eckerd Interconference | Skipper | B | 12 | 14.1 | 0.23 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 4 | 15.2 | 0.30 |
| Princeton Fall Open | Skipper | B | 8 | 2.5 | 1.91 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 9.2 | 1.08 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
