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Princeton Fall Open

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 1 21 20 41
2 SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 12 38 50
3 William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 40 12 52
4 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 44 34 78
5 Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 2 47 34 81
6 Columbia University Columbia University Lions 51 42 93
7 Monmouth University Monmouth University Hawks 43 54 97
8 Washington College Washington College Shoremen 38 62 100
9 University of Delaware University of Delaware Blue Hens 72 76 148
10 Rutgers University Rutgers University Scarlet Knights 77 82 159
11 Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 82 92 174
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 1 1 2 1 3 1 2 1 12 Jeremy Mccauley '20
Kristin Hess '22
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 1 5 6 1 3 1 2 1 2 21 Connor Mraz '23 [1-8]
Edward Bless '22 [1-2]
Samuel Rex '21 [3-6]
Millie Hernandez '22 [7-8]
Washington College Washington College Shoremen 2 2 6 2 5 7 7 7 38 Stewart Gurnell '23
Jonathan Kelly '23
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 3 8 5 4 4 8 BKD 3 40 Constantyn Van Der Voort '23 [1-8]
Maria Torregrosa '21 [1-4, 7-8]
Kirsten Magaard '21 [5-6]
Monmouth University Monmouth University Hawks 6 7 3 5 7 5 4 6 43 Katie Foley '20 [1-8]
Cassidy Hubmaster '22 [1-6]
Bronson Gallagher '21 [7-8]
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 9 4 4 6 8 6 3 4 44 Tanner Comer '20
Joshua Wine '23
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 2 7 3 7 9 2 3 6 10 47 Zak Dasaro '21 [1-2, 5-6]
William Cowen-Breen '22 [3-4, 7-8]
Jack Nusbaum '22 [1-6]
Sean Edling '22 [7-8]
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 4 5 8 7 6 4 9 8 51 David Treatman '20 [1-6]
Emily Ringrose '23 [7-8]
Oona Dederer '23 [1-6]
University of Delaware University of Delaware Blue Hens 8 9 9 8 9 9 BKD 11 72 Tamryn Whyte '23
Alexandra Starr '22
Rutgers University Rutgers University Scarlet Knights 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 9 77 Richard Chui '22
Ian Martin '23
Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 5 5 82 River Dixon '20
Emmilee Stocker '21
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 12 Nathan Whisner '23 [1-8]
Emma Powers '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Grace Holloway '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 1 3 3 2 1 6 2 2 1 20 Bryan Lawrence '24 [1-8]
Aliya Ismagilova '22 [1-6]
Kensuke Nakamura '23 [7-8]
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2 4 6 5 2 6 7 2 34 Kevin Johnston '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Tyler Butler '22 [3-4, 7-8]
Jillian Lovingood '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 2 5 2 3 2 4 7 5 6 34 Liliana Taub '24 [1-8]
Vassiliki Mancoridis '23 [1-6]
Rakesh Potluri '23 [7-8]
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 4 6 5 4 7 4 4 4 38 Jonathan Gorman '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Samantha Mislinski '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Ryan Magill '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 6 5 4 8 5 3 6 5 42 Mateo Navarro Goldaraz '20 [1-4]
Alix Trébaol '21 [5-8]
Alix Trébaol '21 [1-2]
Alison Keenan '22 [3-8]
Monmouth University Monmouth University Hawks 8 7 8 7 3 5 8 8 54 Abigail Brooks '23 [1-2, 5-8]
Daniel Dickson '23 [3-4]
Bronson Gallagher '21 [1-2]
Nicholas Box '22 [3-6]
Montserrat Brenes '23 [7-8]
Washington College Washington College Shoremen 7 8 7 6 8 8 9 9 62 John Mecca '21
Andrew Tran '23
University of Delaware University of Delaware Blue Hens 9 9 9 9 9 9 11 11 76 Damien Hollyday '22
Mackenna Caryl '22
Rutgers University Rutgers University Scarlet Knights DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 3 7 82 Sophia Rosahl '23
Emily Witheridge '23
Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 10 10 92 Robert Chapman '22
Lorinf Dunton '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions11335577
University of DelawareUniversity of Delaware Blue Hens9911112244
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners8810101133
Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University Hawks22446688
Ocean County CollegeOcean County College Vikings33557799
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers 14466881010
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers 25577991111
Rutgers UniversityRutgers University Scarlet Knights6688101011
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves7799111122
Washington CollegeWashington College Shoremen1010113355
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe1111224466

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions22446688
University of DelawareUniversity of Delaware Blue Hens1010113355
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners9911112244
Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University Hawks33557799
Ocean County CollegeOcean County College Vikings4466881010
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers 15577991111
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers 26688101011
Rutgers UniversityRutgers University Scarlet Knights7799111122
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves8810101133
Washington CollegeWashington College Shoremen1111224466
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe11335577
School / Team SkipperCrew
Columbia University Columbia University David Treatman '20 [1-6]
Emily Ringrose '23 [7-8]		 Oona Dederer '23 [1-6]
Lions Mateo Navarro Goldaraz '20 [1-4]
Alix Trébaol '21 [5-8]		 Alix Trébaol '21 [1-2]
Alison Keenan '22 [3-8]
Monmouth University Monmouth University Katie Foley '20 [1-8] Cassidy Hubmaster '22 [1-6]
Bronson Gallagher '21 [7-8]
Hawks Abigail Brooks '23 [1-2, 5-8]
Daniel Dickson '23 [3-4]		 Bronson Gallagher '21 [1-2]
Nicholas Box '22 [3-6]
Montserrat Brenes '23 [7-8]
Ocean County College Ocean County College River Dixon '20 Emmilee Stocker '21
Vikings Robert Chapman '22 Lorinf Dunton '20
Princeton University Princeton University Connor Mraz '23 [1-8] Edward Bless '22 [1-2]
Samuel Rex '21 [3-6]
Millie Hernandez '22 [7-8]
Tigers 1 Bryan Lawrence '24 [1-8] Aliya Ismagilova '22 [1-6]
Kensuke Nakamura '23 [7-8]
Princeton University Princeton University Zak Dasaro '21 [1-2, 5-6]
William Cowen-Breen '22 [3-4, 7-8]		 Jack Nusbaum '22 [1-6]
Sean Edling '22 [7-8]
Tigers 2 Liliana Taub '24 [1-8] Vassiliki Mancoridis '23 [1-6]
Rakesh Potluri '23 [7-8]
Rutgers University Rutgers University Richard Chui '22 Ian Martin '23
Scarlet Knights Sophia Rosahl '23 Emily Witheridge '23
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Jeremy Mccauley '20 Kristin Hess '22
Seawolves Jonathan Gorman '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Samantha Mislinski '19 [3-4, 7-8]		 Ryan Magill '22 [1-2, 5-6]
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Tanner Comer '20 Joshua Wine '23
Mariners Kevin Johnston '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Tyler Butler '22 [3-4, 7-8]		 Jillian Lovingood '23 [1-2, 5-6]
University of Delaware University of Delaware Tamryn Whyte '23 Alexandra Starr '22
Blue Hens Damien Hollyday '22 Mackenna Caryl '22
Washington College Washington College Stewart Gurnell '23 Jonathan Kelly '23
Shoremen John Mecca '21 Andrew Tran '23
William and Mary William and Mary Constantyn Van Der Voort '23 [1-8] Maria Torregrosa '21 [1-4, 7-8]
Kirsten Magaard '21 [5-6]
Tribe Nathan Whisner '23 [1-8] Emma Powers '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Grace Holloway '21 [3-4, 7-8]

Conditions — 09/21/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 44%  ·  Pressure 1022.5 hPa

Temperature

78°F
↑ 85°F   ↓ 59°F
Feels like 78°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.3 kn
avg  ·  max 3.9 kn
Gusts to 8.7 kn
From WSW (246°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover20% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity44% Pressure1022.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 5 kn · SW 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Princeton: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.04 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Princeton by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 5 labelled days at Princeton, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →