University of Delaware '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.54 (fleet -0.73) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 0–24 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 0–12 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 0–12 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (24 matches) the record is 0–24 against 0.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-04 | Tom Noble Team Race | skipper | -0.28 | -3.28 | 0–12 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.8 | >99% |
| 2022-03-05 | Tom Noble Team Race | skipper | -0.57 | -3.57 | 0–12 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Tom Noble Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 0% | — |
| Drexel Open | Skipper | A | 2 | 4.5 | -0.52 |
| Delaware Spring Open | Skipper | A | 2 | 4.5 | -0.13 |
| Delaware River Dinghy Regatta | Skipper | A | 3 | 9.0 | -3.10 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Fall Open | Skipper | B | 2 | 11.5 | -0.81 |
| Philly Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 3 | 7.7 | -0.64 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Tom Noble Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 0% | — |
| College Sailing Regional Teams Nat'l Invitational | Skipper | A | 5 | 16.4 | -2.12 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Fall | Skipper | A | 5 | 11.4 | -0.97 |
| Philly Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 6 | 11.5 | -2.04 |
| Luce Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 15.6 | -1.06 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Princeton Fall Open | Skipper | A | 7 | 9.0 | -1.13 |
| McCurdy Memorial | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.2 | 0.18 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
