Philly Fleet Race

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 3 3 6
2 Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 8 9 17
3 SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 19 10 29
4 Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 17 15 32
5 Hamilton College Hamilton College Continentals 14 19 33
6 University of Delaware University of Delaware Blue Hens 16 23 39
7 Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 23 19 42
8 Washington College Washington College Shoremen 17 27 44
9 University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers 31 18 49
10 U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Black Knights 28 28 56
11 Rutgers University Rutgers University Scarlet Knights 42 MRP 47 MRP 89 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 1 1 1 3 Calvin Schmid '26
Walter Wolfe '26
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 3 2 3 8 Jasper Waldman '25
Vincent Nguyen '25
Hamilton College Hamilton College Continentals 2 10 2 14 Michael Stewart '25 [1-3]
Elizabeth Price '25 [1-2]
Hannah Budner '23 [3]
University of Delaware University of Delaware Blue Hens 6 3 7 16 Ethan Deutsch '25
Ian Kaplan '25
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 4 5 8 17 Iain Shand '24
Meredith Davies '26
Washington College Washington College Shoremen 9 4 4 17 Jonathan Kelly '23
Shalis Hunt '23
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 7 7 5 19 Ryan Magill '22
Morgan Bittmann '24
Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 5 8 10 23 Julia Priebke '25
Katie Lee '23
U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Black Knights 8 11 9 28 Henry Jensen '23 [1-3]
Alyssa Lee '24 [1-2]
Gabriel Kunze '25 [3]
University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers 11 9 11 31 Vaughan Hood '24
Kayla Smith '17
Rutgers University Rutgers University Scarlet Knights 10 6 6 42 MRP Anish Jayewardene '24
Sophia Rosahl '23
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 1 1 1 3 Everett Botwinick '26
Millay Metz '26
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 2 4 3 9 Eddie O’Keefe '25
Chai Mauliola '24
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 3 5 2 10 Brendan Strein '23
Jessica Schaefer '23
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 4 3 8 15 Ben Muchin '24 [1-2]
Patrick Hartshorne '24 [3]
Patrick Hartshorne '24 [1-2]
Ben Muchin '24 [3]
University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers 11 2 5 18 Henry Powell '26
Hunter Sugg '23
Hamilton College Hamilton College Continentals 5 8 6 19 Andrew Patterson '26
Kate Constan '26
Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 8 7 4 19 Meghan Sarlund '25
Noah Turkel '23
University of Delaware University of Delaware Blue Hens 6 6 11 23 Tamryn Whyte '23
Phillip Furlong '25
Washington College Washington College Shoremen 10 10 7 27 Andrew Tran '23
Benjamin Francis '25
U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Black Knights 7 11 10 28 Gil Hankinson '23 [1-3]
Raymond Shattuck '24 [1-2]
Alecsander Imig '24 [3]
Rutgers University Rutgers University Scarlet Knights 9 9 9 47 MRP Robert Chapman '24
Calvin Ristad '25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2022 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A
U. S. Military AcademyU. S. Military Academy Black Knights668
University of DelawareUniversity of Delaware Blue Hens779
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons113
Hamilton CollegeHamilton College Continentals224
University of Maryland/Baltimore CountyUniversity of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers8810
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers335
Rutgers UniversityRutgers University Scarlet Knights446
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves557
Villanova UniversityVillanova University Wildcats9911
Washington CollegeWashington College Shoremen10101
Webb InstituteWebb Institute Clippers11112

Division B

Team1B2B3B
U. S. Military AcademyU. S. Military Academy Black Knights779
University of DelawareUniversity of Delaware Blue Hens8810
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons224
Hamilton CollegeHamilton College Continentals335
University of Maryland/Baltimore CountyUniversity of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers9911
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers446
Rutgers UniversityRutgers University Scarlet Knights557
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves668
Villanova UniversityVillanova University Wildcats10101
Washington CollegeWashington College Shoremen11112
Webb InstituteWebb Institute Clippers113

Conditions — 09/10/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 55%  ·  Pressure 1023.5 hPa

Temperature

76°F
↑ 82°F   ↓ 62°F
Feels like 78°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.3 kn
avg  ·  max 7.4 kn
Gusts to 13.6 kn
From SW (228°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover86% Sunshine10.2 hrs Humidity55% Pressure1023.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 6 kn · NE 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Drexel: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.02
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.11 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Drexel by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 11 labelled days at Drexel, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →