Drexel University '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.33 (fleet 1.84) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 7–12 (37%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 1 | 5–2 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 2–10 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (19 matches) the record is 7–12 against 6.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-02 | Tom Noble Open Team Race | skipper | 1.36 | 1.71 | 5–2 | 4.5 | +0.36 | 0.1 | 53% |
| 2023-03-04 | Tom Noble Team Race | skipper | 1.15 | 0.76 | 2–10 | 2.3 | −0.39 | 0.1 | 83% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Drexel Open | Skipper | A | 4 | 1.2 | 3.01 |
| Delaware Spring Open | Skipper | A | 13 | 2.9 | 1.75 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Tom Noble Open Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 67% | — |
| Grant Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 5.2 | 1.46 |
| Drexel Open | Skipper | A | 2 | 2.0 | 0.86 |
| America Trophy - Conference Championship | Skipper | B | 15 | 13.0 | 2.01 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Fall | Skipper | B | 11 | 6.7 | 1.33 |
| WAR MEMORIAL | Skipper | B | 12 | 14.3 | 1.33 |
| McCurdy Memorial | Skipper | A | 12 | 2.3 | 2.14 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Tom Noble Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 8% | — |
| The Grant | Skipper | B | 8 | 3.5 | 2.53 |
| Engineer's Cup | Skipper | A | 3 | 1.7 | 1.83 |
| Drexel Open | Skipper | A | 3 | 1.0 | — |
| Delaware Spring Open | Skipper | A | 4 | 1.2 | 3.20 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Fall Open | Skipper | A | 9 | 6.3 | 1.91 |
| Philly Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 3 | 5.7 | 0.55 |
| Mccurdy Memorial | Skipper | A | 6 | 1.8 | 2.52 |
| Luce Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 9.6 | 1.06 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Drexel Open | Skipper | A | 4 | 1.8 | 2.69 |
| Delaware Spring Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 3.9 | 0.56 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Iain Shand |  Unregistered-MASSA |
'19 |
| ISSA | Iain Shand |  North East River High School |
'19 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
