| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Washington College | Shoremen | 7–2 |
| 2 |  |
Queen's University | Gaels | 4–5 |
| 3 |  |
Drexel University | Dragons | 6–3 |
| 4 |  |
Princeton University | Tigers 1 | 4–5 |
| 5 | |
Princeton University | Tigers 2 | 4–5 |
| 6 |  |
University of Delaware | Blue Hens | 0–9 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 22,017 team race matches sailed before 2024-03-02, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 14 of 18 matches (78%) with a log-loss of 0.402 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.06 ± 0.51: a typical event, more orderly than 49% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Washington College Shoremen | 1 | 3.96 school −0.19, home +0.43 | Matthew Collinson / Mia Snyder 0.70 Joseph Bonacci / Rachel Morgen 1.45 Kennedy Jones / Nora Ciak 4–2 Kennedy Jones / Laurel Krause 1–0 | 80% | 5–2 (71%) | −0.6 |
| 3 | Drexel University Dragons | 2 | 3.54 school −0.07 | Iain Shand / Dren Gara 1.36 Toby Sullivan / Chris Bahr Lucas Randle / Meredith Davies | 65% | 5–2 (71%) | +0.5 |
| 4 | Princeton University Tigers 1 | 3 | 2.78 school −0.09 | Jasper Waldman / Kaitlyn Greppin 1.57 Eddie O’Keefe / Vincent Nguyen Evelyn Walsh / Ana Bucevic | 57% | 4–3 (57%) | −0.0 |
| 5 | Princeton University Tigers 2 | 4 | 2.55 school −0.09 | Berkley Yiu / Hali Liu William Roberts / Nicholas Lorenzen 0.83 Advik Eswaran / Victoria Davies | 47% | 4–4 (50%) | +0.3 |
| 6 | University of Delaware Blue Hens | 5 | -1.00 school −0.12 | Ethan Deutsch / Ian Kaplan Phillip Furlong / John Fulkerson Myles Wommack / Brian Polak | 2% | 0–7 (0%) | −0.1 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Drexel University Dragons | 3.54 | 3.90 | 5–2 | 4.5 | +0.36 | 0.1 | 53% |
| 5 | Princeton University Tigers 2 | 2.55 | 2.75 | 4–4 | 3.7 | +0.20 | 0.0 | 57% |
| 4 | Princeton University Tigers 1 | 2.78 | 2.76 | 4–3 | 4.0 | −0.02 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 1 | Washington College Shoremen | 3.96 | 3.43 | 5–2 | 5.6 | −0.53 | 0.2 | 86% |
| 6 | University of Delaware Blue Hens | -1.00 | -4.00 | 0–7 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.2 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Randle | Drexel University | -0.01 | 0.34 | 5–2 | 4.5 | +0.36 | 0.1 | 53% |
| Berkley Yiu | Princeton University | 0.61 | 0.81 | 4–4 | 3.7 | +0.20 | 0.0 | 57% |
| William Roberts | Princeton University | 0.83 | 1.03 | 4–4 | 3.7 | +0.20 | 0.0 | 57% |
| Advik Eswaran | Princeton University | 0.96 | 1.16 | 4–4 | 3.7 | +0.20 | 0.0 | 57% |
| Eddie O’Keefe | Princeton University | 1.08 | 1.06 | 4–3 | 4.0 | −0.02 | 0.0 | 68% |
| Evelyn Walsh | Princeton University | 0.00 | -0.02 | 4–3 | 4.0 | −0.02 | 0.0 | 68% |
| Joseph Bonacci | Washington College | 1.45 | 0.93 | 5–2 | 5.6 | −0.53 | 0.2 | 86% |
| Ethan Deutsch | University of Delaware | 0.09 | -2.91 | 0–7 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.2 | >99% |
| Phillip Furlong | University of Delaware | -0.56 | -3.56 | 0–7 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.2 | >99% |
| Myles Wommack | University of Delaware | -0.71 | -3.71 | 0–7 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.2 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Shoremen | Gaels | Dragons | 1 | 2 | Hens | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington College Shoremen | 4–1 | ✕ | W | L | W | W | W |
| Queen's University Gaels | 4–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Drexel University Dragons | 3–2 | W | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Princeton University Tigers 1 | 4–6 | L | L | L | ✕ | ✕ | W |
| Princeton University Tigers 2 | 4–6 | L | L | L | ✕ | ✕ | W |
| University of Delaware Blue Hens | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Shoremen | Gaels | Dragons | 1 | 2 | Hens | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington College Shoremen | 3–1 | ✕ | W | W | L | L | W |
| Queen's University Gaels | 2–2 | L | ✕ | L | W | W | W |
| Drexel University Dragons | 3–1 | L | W | ✕ | W | W | – |
| Princeton University Tigers 1 | 4–4 | W | L | L | ✕ | ✕ | W |
| Princeton University Tigers 2 | 4–4 | W | L | L | ✕ | ✕ | W |
| University of Delaware Blue Hens | 0–4 | L | L | – | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Tigers 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tigers 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Gaels | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Dragons | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Shoremen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Blue Hens | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Tigers 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Dragons | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Shoremen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tigers 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Gaels | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Blue Hens | 2-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Dragons | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Shoremen | 2-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Gaels | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tigers 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Tigers 2 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Blue Hens | 2-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Shoremen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Gaels | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Dragons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tigers 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Tigers 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Blue Hens | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Gaels | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Tigers 2 | 2-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Shoremen | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Tigers 1 | 2-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Dragons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Blue Hens | 3-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Tigers 2 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Tigers 1 | 1-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Dragons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Gaels | 3-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Shoremen | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Blue Hens | 2-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Dragons | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Tigers 1 | 1-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Tigers 2 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Shoremen | 2-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Gaels | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Blue Hens | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Shoremen | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Dragons | 2-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Gaels | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tigers 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Tigers 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Blue Hens | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Shoremen | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Gaels | 2-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Dragons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tigers 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Tigers 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Blue Hens | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Washington College | Shoremen | Joseph Bonacci '25 Kennedy Jones '24 Matthew Collinson '24 |
Rachel Morgen '26 Laurel Krause '24 Nora Ciak '27 Mia Snyder '26 |
|
Drexel University | Dragons | Iain Shand '24 Lucas Randle '27 Toby Sullivan '24 |
Dren Gara '25 Meredith Davies '26 Chris Bahr '26 |
|
Princeton University | Tigers 1 | Eddie O’Keefe '25 Evelyn Walsh '26 Jasper Waldman '25 |
Vincent Nguyen '25 Ana Bucevic '27 Kaitlyn Greppin '26 |
|
Princeton University | Tigers 2 | Advik Eswaran '27 Berkley Yiu '25 William Roberts '26 |
Victoria Davies '27 Hali Liu '25 Nicholas Lorenzen '27 |
|
University of Delaware | Blue Hens | Ethan Deutsch '25 Myles Wommack '27 Phillip Furlong '25 |
Ian Kaplan '25 Brian Polak '27 John Fulkerson '26 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
