Washington College '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.59 (fleet 0.77) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.03 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 19–7 (73%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 2 | 7–7 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 12–0 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (26 matches) the record is 19–7 against 15.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.9). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-16 | Washington College Open Team Race | skipper | 0.84 | 2.39 | 2–5 | 0.6 | +1.56 | 1.7 | 12% |
| 2024-03-02 | Tom Noble Open Team Race | skipper | 0.70 | 0.17 | 5–2 | 5.6 | −0.53 | 0.2 | 86% |
| 2022-03-05 | Tom Noble Team Race | skipper | 0.54 | 3.54 | 12–0 | 8.9 | ≥+3.00 | 5.2 | 2% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Open Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 29% | — |
| Tom Noble Open Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 78% | — |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Webb/Wollum | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.7 | 0.97 |
| Washington College Fall | Skipper | A | 11 | 8.1 | 0.93 |
| New York Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.8 | 1.26 |
| Luce Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.6 | 0.47 |
| Chesapeake Invitational | Skipper | A | 11 | 16.7 | — |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Tom Noble Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 100% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Kings Point Dinghy Open | Skipper | A | 9 | 17.6 | 0.28 |
| John Quinn | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.1 | 1.54 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Matthew Collinson |  Sts. Peter & Paul |
'20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
