SUNY Stony Brook '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.78 (fleet 1.08) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 3–18 (14%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 3–18 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (21 matches) the record is 3–18 against 3.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-18 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 0.66 | 0.49 | 3–18 | 3.2 | −0.17 | 0.0 | 77% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 14% | — |
| Stony Brook Cup | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.2 | 1.11 |
| Peter Wenner Rainbow Invitational | Skipper | B | 2 | 11.0 | 0.52 |
| Ocean County Spring Open | Skipper | A | 13 | 6.6 | 1.11 |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 13.6 | 0.59 |
| The Grant | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.9 | 1.08 |
| Connecticut Valley Dinghy Championship Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 12.2 | 0.99 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Stony Brook Fall Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.8 | 0.89 |
| Philly Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 3 | 3.3 | 1.50 |
| Luce Trophy | Skipper | B | 2 | 10.5 | -0.48 |
| Coho Regatta | Skipper | B | 9 | 3.3 | 0.38 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
