Stony Brook Fall Open

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 11 16 27
2 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 28 18 46
3 SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 1 24 30 54
4 Hamilton College Hamilton College Continentals 38 33 71
5 Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 43 36 79
6 SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 2 38 49 87
7 U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Black Knights 57 47 104
8 Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 49 58 107
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 1 3 1 2 1 1 1 1 11 Everett Botwinick '26
Walter Wolfe '26
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 1 3 1 3 1 4 6 2 4 24 Kai Rauch '24
Gerrit Bittmann '24
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2 2 4 4 2 2 4 8 28 Lewis Bragg '26 [1-8]
Alexis Katsabekis '25 [1-5]
Micah Warren '23 [6-8]
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 2 4 5 2 8 7 7 3 2 38 Brendan Strein '23
Jessica Schaefer '23
Hamilton College Hamilton College Continentals 6 4 6 5 5 3 6 3 38 Michael Stewart '25
Elizabeth Price '25
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 5 7 7 3 3 4 7 7 43 Alec Wyers '23 [1-8]
Laura Jayne '25 [1-3, 7-8]
Katie Metis '26 [4-6]
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 7 6 5 6 6 8 5 6 49 Tristan Feves '26
Anthony Webster '25
U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Black Knights 8 8 8 7 8 5 8 5 57 Henry Jensen '23 [1-8]
Alyssa Lee '24 [1-3]
Claudia Brodsky '26 [4-6]
Gabriel Kunze '25 [7-8]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 1 1 5 2 2 1 2 2 16 Calvin Schmid '26
Millay Metz '26
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2 5 2 1 1 2 1 4 18 Charlie Lawrence '26
Caelan Mcmichael '26
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 1 4 3 6 3 3 3 3 5 30 Ryan Magill '22
Chih-Yu Liu '23
Hamilton College Hamilton College Continentals 3 2 1 7 8 7 BKD 1 33 Ethan Stone '25 [1-3, 7-8]
Allen Underwood Iii '25 [4-6]
Allen Underwood Iii '25 [1-3, 7-8]
Hannah Budner '23 [4-6]
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 6 4 3 8 4 4 4 3 36 Maren Behnke '25
Faith Otoole '24
U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Black Knights 5 6 4 5 6 6 7 8 47 Gil Hankinson '23 [1-6]
Raymond Shattuck '24 [7-8]
Raymond Shattuck '24 [1-3]
Colby Buzzelli '26 [4-6]
Alecsander Imig '24 [7-8]
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 2 7 8 8 4 5 5 6 6 49 Rose Von Eckartsberg '25 [1-3, 7-8]
Isabel Steinmetz '23 [4-6]
Jada Seto '25 [1-3, 7-8]
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 8 7 7 6 7 8 8 7 58 Gianmarco Costa '26
Anthony Webster '25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (23 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
U. S. Military AcademyU. S. Military Academy Black Knights77711133
Hamilton CollegeHamilton College Continentals11133355
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners66688822
Stevens Institute of TechnologyStevens Institute of Technology Ducks44466688
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 122244466
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 233355577
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange55577711
Webb InstituteWebb Institute Clippers88822244

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
U. S. Military AcademyU. S. Military Academy Black Knights88822244
Hamilton CollegeHamilton College Continentals22244466
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners77711133
Stevens Institute of TechnologyStevens Institute of Technology Ducks55577711
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 133355577
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 244466688
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange66688822
Webb InstituteWebb Institute Clippers11133355

Conditions — 10/15/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 62%  ·  Pressure 1016.4 hPa

Temperature

63°F
↑ 68°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 61°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.5 kn
avg  ·  max 8.2 kn
Gusts to 19.4 kn
From SSE (165°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity62% Pressure1016.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 8 kn · NW 6 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Stony Brook: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.02
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.14 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stony Brook by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (15 labelled days at Stony Brook).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →