Washington College '23
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 97.19 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.116 rating points from 26 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.52 (fleet 3.50) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 23–43 (35%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 20–16 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 3–12 | — |
| Spring 2020 | 1 | 0–15 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (66 matches) the record is 23–43 against 26.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-18 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 2.49 | 2.73 | 12–9 | 11.3 | +0.24 | 0.1 | 44% |
| 2023-03-04 | Tom Noble Team Race | skipper | 2.59 | 2.34 | 8–7 | 8.5 | −0.24 | 0.1 | 76% |
| 2022-03-19 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 2.47 | 1.21 | 3–12 | 6.3 | −1.26 | 2.9 | 99% |
| 2020-02-29 | Tom Noble Team Race | skipper | 1.79 | -1.21 | 0–15 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 57% | — |
| Tom Noble Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| Ocean County Spring Open | Skipper | A | 13 | 1.3 | 4.86 |
| Hanbury Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 4.1 | 3.65 |
| The Grant | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.9 | 3.66 |
| America Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.3 | 3.05 |
| 85th Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | A | 14 | 11.6 | 3.30 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Webb/Wollum | Skipper | A | 18 | 3.0 | 2.57 |
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 7 | 8.9 | 3.63 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 13 | 5.0 | 3.69 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.5 | 3.23 |
| Luce Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 4.6 | 2.95 |
| David Lee Arnoff Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.1 | 2.35 |
| Chesapeake Invitational | Skipper | A | 13 | 10.3 | 1.79 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 20% | — |
| Hanbury Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.7 | 2.25 |
| The Grant | Skipper | A | 14 | 3.8 | 3.10 |
| Charleston Spring | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.0 | 2.96 |
| America Trophy - MAISA Open Dinghy Championships | Skipper | A | 13 | 11.4 | 3.02 |
| 84th Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | A | 9 | 10.0 | 3.21 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.9 | 3.47 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.3 | 2.77 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 17 | 8.8 | 3.32 |
| Luce Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.6 | 2.67 |
| David Lee Arnoff Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.8 | 2.21 |
| Chesapeake Invitational | Skipper | A | 8 | 11.2 | 2.84 |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| MAISA South Coed Conference Championships | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.5 | 1.63 |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Tom Noble Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 0% | — |
| Charleston Spring Coed | Skipper | A | 16 | 9.2 | 2.36 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Fall | Skipper | A | 4 | 5.0 | 2.02 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.2 | 3.39 |
| Princeton Fall Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.8 | 1.23 |
| NYM Fall Open | Skipper | B | 15 | 3.3 | 3.12 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 6.2 | 2.58 |
| Luce Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 6.2 | 2.24 |
| The John Quinn | Skipper | B | 12 | 1.8 | 2.71 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Stewart Gurnell |  Xavier High School |
'19 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
