Riley Cup

HostOld Dominion
Date09/10/2022
TypeFundamental
BoatFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Georgetown University	Hoyas 2	74	44	118
2	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen 1	68	61	129
3	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	76	70	146
4	Old Dominion University	Big Blue	78	73	151
5	Georgetown University	Hoyas 1	69	88	157
6	George Washington University	Colonials	93	71	164
7	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks 1	125	50	175
8	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen 2	115	80	195
9	Washington College	Shoremen	65	135	200
10	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks 2	101	127	228
11	Hampton University	Pirates	107	143	250
12	Christopher Newport University	Captains	125	138	263
13	University of Virginia	Wahoos	146	164	310
14	Virginia Tech	Hokies	148	170	318
15	William and Mary	Tribe	177	183	360
16	American University	Eagles	201	175	376

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	TOT	Sailors
Washington College	Shoremen	1	9	2	9	13	4	2	3	8	3	1	3	7	65	Stewart Gurnell '23 Kennedy Jones '24
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen 1	4	1	1	5	8	7	1	6	6	7	4	9	9	68	Nathan Smith '26 Ellie Alex '26
Georgetown University	Hoyas 1	3	6	7	2	3	14	6	1	2	1	3	15	6	69	Jack Corbett '23 Elizabeth Fortunato '23
Georgetown University	Hoyas 2	8	3	4	8	1	8	7	2	9	5	7	2	10	74	Daniel Hughes '25 Morgan Rice '25
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	6	2	8	1	2	1	14	5	3	6	14	11	3	76	Parker Purrington '24 Isabelle Kanach '25
Old Dominion University	Big Blue	7	11	6	3	7	10	3	4	5	13	2	6	1	78	Noyl Odom '24 Alivia Markham '23
George Washington University	Colonials	9	10	5	7	9	2	11	8	11	8	6	5	2	93	Oscar Macgillivray '24 Kaleigh Morgan '24
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks 2	5	12	10	10	10	9	12	11	7	2	5	4	4	101	Miles Wolff '26 Shannon Brecher '26
Hampton University	Pirates	15	15	16	6	6	3	5	7	4	4	11	1	14	107	Can Dilikoglu '23 Mateo Manzanares '23
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen 2	11	7	3	11	11	6	8	13	1	11	15	10	8	115	Colin Macgillivray '23 Margo Cicero '26
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks 1	2	5	9	12	12	13	4	10	12	15	13	7	11	125	Max Kleha '25 [1-13] Henry Haddon '25 [1-10] Emily Shioutakon '26 [11-13]
Christopher Newport University	Captains	12	4	12	4	5	15	13	14	10	9	9	13	5	125	Brian Fox '23 Carson Rozell '23
University of Virginia	Wahoos	10	8	11	14	14	5	10	12	15	14	12	8	13	146	Andrew Montague '25 [1-13] Laura Rhodes '24 [1-4, 11-13] Luca Bonanno '25 [5-10]
Virginia Tech	Hokies	14	13	14	16	4	11	9	9	13	10	8	12	15	148	Aidan Young '24 Ava Walker '23
William and Mary	Tribe	13	14	13	13	16	16	15	15	14	12	10	14	12	177	Sam Dutilly '24 Gabrielle Buffaloe '23
American University	Eagles	16	16	15	15	15	12	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	201	Jacob Juros '24 [1-13] Charles Degen '23 [1-6, 11-13] Jesse Barba '24 [7-10]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	TOT	Sailors
Georgetown University	Hoyas 2	11	7	2	1	3	6	2	1	1	3	1	1	5	44	Enzo Menditto '26 Spencer Kriegstein '25
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks 1	4	4	8	4	7	3	5	3	3	2	2	3	2	50	Felix Cutler '26 Anna Flynn '25
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen 1	7	9	4	5	2	7	1	4	4	1	5	6	6	61	Cooper Walshe '25 Linnea Forsberg '25
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	2	10	3	2	1	10	4	12	5	6	6	5	4	70	Tyler Brown '26 Lindsey Kaufmann '26
George Washington University	Colonials	1	3	1	3	5	8	7	10	11	11	4	4	3	71	Tyler Wood '26 [1-6, 9-13] Jedidiah Bechtel '26 [7-8] Abbie Chipps '25 [1-6, 11-13] Elizabeth Ellis '24 [7-8] Henry Mcpherson '25 [9-10]
Old Dominion University	Big Blue	5	5	5	10	8	4	8	7	2	9	7	2	1	73	Diogo Silva '26 [1-13] Asianna Acosta '26 [1-10] Jarred Hosking '26 [11-13]
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen 2	6	2	12	6	9	1	6	2	6	4	3	13	10	80	Ryan Wahba '25 Alexander Brenia '26
Georgetown University	Hoyas 1	3	1	6	8	4	5	3	11	7	10	9	12	9	88	Jeffrey Petersen '25 Marguerite Montagner '25
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks 2	13	11	9	7	14	9	13	8	12	5	10	8	8	127	Cho-Cho Williams '26 Dexter Mueller '24
Washington College	Shoremen	12	12	10	16	13	11	9	6	9	12	8	10	7	135	Joseph Bonacci '25 Emma Macturk '23
Christopher Newport University	Captains	8	8	14	12	10	13	11	9	13	7	15	7	11	138	Joshua Bendura '26 Sebastian Beavers '26
Hampton University	Pirates	10	6	15	9	6	2	10	5	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	12	143	Stefano Palamara '25 Tommaso Ciaglia '25
University of Virginia	Wahoos	16	15	7	13	12	12	14	16	8	13	11	14	13	164	Jackson Eshelman '26 [1-13] Colin Miedler '26 [1-4, 9-10, 13] Sarah Besecky '23 [5-8, 11-12]
Virginia Tech	Hokies	9	14	13	14	11	16	15	13	14	14	12	11	14	170	Brock Diaz '23 Adam Ginsburg '25
American University	Eagles	14	13	16	15	16	15	16	14	10	8	14	9	15	175	Anika Liner '25 Julia Kane '25
William and Mary	Tribe	15	16	11	11	15	14	12	15	15	15	13	15	16	183	Julia Hudson '24 [1-13] Peyton Bernstein '24 [1-2, 9-13] Maddie Sharpe '23 [3-8]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.060+0.06

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2010 (49 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A	13A
American University Eagles	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13
Christopher Newport University Captains	2	2	16	16	14	14	12	12	10	10	8	8	6
George Washington University Colonials	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15
Georgetown University Hoyas 1	4	4	2	2	16	16	14	14	12	12	10	10	8
Georgetown University Hoyas 2	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	1
Hampton University Pirates	6	6	4	4	2	2	16	16	14	14	12	12	10
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	11	11	13	13	15	15	1	1	3	3	5	5	7
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	12	12	10	10	8	8	6	6	4	4	2	2	16
Old Dominion University Big Blue	8	8	6	6	4	4	2	2	16	16	14	14	12
Old Dominion University Monarchs	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	1	1	3
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	1	1	3	3	5
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2	10	10	8	8	6	6	4	4	2	2	16	16	14
University of Virginia Wahoos	13	13	15	15	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9
Virginia Tech Hokies	14	14	12	12	10	10	8	8	6	6	4	4	2
Washington College Shoremen	15	15	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11
William and Mary Tribe	16	16	14	14	12	12	10	10	8	8	6	6	4

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B	12B	13B
American University Eagles	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14
Christopher Newport University Captains	1	1	15	15	13	13	11	11	9	9	7	7	5
George Washington University Colonials	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16
Georgetown University Hoyas 1	3	3	1	1	15	15	13	13	11	11	9	9	7
Georgetown University Hoyas 2	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	2
Hampton University Pirates	5	5	3	3	1	1	15	15	13	13	11	11	9
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	12	12	14	14	16	16	2	2	4	4	6	6	8
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	11	11	9	9	7	7	5	5	3	3	1	1	15
Old Dominion University Big Blue	7	7	5	5	3	3	1	1	15	15	13	13	11
Old Dominion University Monarchs	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	2	2	4
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	2	2	4	4	6
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2	9	9	7	7	5	5	3	3	1	1	15	15	13
University of Virginia Wahoos	14	14	16	16	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10
Virginia Tech Hokies	13	13	11	11	9	9	7	7	5	5	3	3	1
Washington College Shoremen	16	16	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12
William and Mary Tribe	15	15	13	13	11	11	9	9	7	7	5	5	3

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
American University	Jacob Juros '24 [1-13]	Charles Degen '23 [1-6, 11-13] Jesse Barba '24 [7-10]
Eagles	Anika Liner '25	Julia Kane '25
Christopher Newport University	Brian Fox '23	Carson Rozell '23
Captains	Joshua Bendura '26	Sebastian Beavers '26
George Washington University	Oscar Macgillivray '24	Kaleigh Morgan '24
Colonials	Tyler Wood '26 [1-6, 9-13] Jedidiah Bechtel '26 [7-8]	Abbie Chipps '25 [1-6, 11-13] Elizabeth Ellis '24 [7-8] Henry Mcpherson '25 [9-10]
Georgetown University	Jack Corbett '23	Elizabeth Fortunato '23
Hoyas 1	Jeffrey Petersen '25	Marguerite Montagner '25
Georgetown University	Daniel Hughes '25	Morgan Rice '25
Hoyas 2	Enzo Menditto '26	Spencer Kriegstein '25
Hampton University	Can Dilikoglu '23	Mateo Manzanares '23
Pirates	Stefano Palamara '25	Tommaso Ciaglia '25
Old Dominion University	Noyl Odom '24	Alivia Markham '23
Big Blue	Diogo Silva '26 [1-13]	Asianna Acosta '26 [1-10] Jarred Hosking '26 [11-13]
Old Dominion University	Parker Purrington '24	Isabelle Kanach '25
Monarchs	Tyler Brown '26	Lindsey Kaufmann '26
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Max Kleha '25 [1-13]	Henry Haddon '25 [1-10] Emily Shioutakon '26 [11-13]
Seahawks 1	Felix Cutler '26	Anna Flynn '25
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Miles Wolff '26	Shannon Brecher '26
Seahawks 2	Cho-Cho Williams '26	Dexter Mueller '24
U. S. Naval Academy	Nathan Smith '26	Ellie Alex '26
Midshipmen 1	Cooper Walshe '25	Linnea Forsberg '25
U. S. Naval Academy	Colin Macgillivray '23	Margo Cicero '26
Midshipmen 2	Ryan Wahba '25	Alexander Brenia '26
University of Virginia	Andrew Montague '25 [1-13]	Laura Rhodes '24 [1-4, 11-13] Luca Bonanno '25 [5-10]
Wahoos	Jackson Eshelman '26 [1-13]	Colin Miedler '26 [1-4, 9-10, 13] Sarah Besecky '23 [5-8, 11-12]
Virginia Tech	Aidan Young '24	Ava Walker '23
Hokies	Brock Diaz '23	Adam Ginsburg '25
Washington College	Stewart Gurnell '23	Kennedy Jones '24
Shoremen	Joseph Bonacci '25	Emma Macturk '23
William and Mary	Sam Dutilly '24	Gabrielle Buffaloe '23
Tribe	Julia Hudson '24 [1-13]	Peyton Bernstein '24 [1-2, 9-13] Maddie Sharpe '23 [3-8]

Conditions — 09/10/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 61% · Pressure 1021.8 hPa

Temperature

80°F

↑ 82°F ↓ 74°F

Feels like 81°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

9.8 kn

avg · max 11.2 kn

Gusts to 20.8 kn

From E (95°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover82% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity61% Pressure1021.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 10 kn · SE 9 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at Old Dominion: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment −0.07 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.10

Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.39 ± 0.07)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Old Dominion by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (76 labelled days at Old Dominion).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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