University of Virginia '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.66 (fleet 2.32) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 6–15 (29%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 6–15 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (21 matches) the record is 6–15 against 8.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-18 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 1.38 | 0.24 | 6–15 | 8.1 | −1.13 | 1.6 | 97% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| W&M Spring Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 2.0 | 2.85 |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Jefferson Cup | Skipper | A | 7 | 3.3 | 1.90 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Hanbury Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.9 | 1.57 |
| 2024 SailPack Oriental Intercollegiate | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.1 | 2.31 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Kingsmill Cup | Skipper | A | 12 | 2.4 | 2.41 |
| Jefferson Cup | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.0 | 2.52 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 29% | — |
| Spring Open | Skipper | A | 5 | 2.6 | 2.63 |
| Hanbury Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.0 | 1.40 |
| The Grant | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.0 | 2.00 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 7 | 14.6 | 1.92 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 13 | 11.2 | 1.59 |
| Luce Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 5.4 | 2.72 |
| Kingsmill Cup | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.0 | 0.85 |
| Jefferson Cup | Skipper | B | 1 | 1.0 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
