Jefferson Cup

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 1 15 9 24
2 Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 14 21 35
3 University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 23 29 52
4 William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 34 19 53
5 American University American University Eagles 31 32 63
6 University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 2 31 40 71
7 Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Cardinals 48 42 90
8 Johnnies Johnnies Johnnies 63 63 126
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 1 2 1 1 4 4 1 14 Aidan Young '24
Adam Ginsburg '25
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 1 2 1 4 2 1 1 4 15 Marco Centanaro Garcia '23 [1-6]
Maxwell Penders '25 [7]
Laura Rhodes '24 [1-6]
Claire Miller '26 [7]
University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 4 3 3 3 2 2 6 23 William Mccollum '23 [1-7]
Umd Test '25 [1-3, 5-7]
Hayden Lamb '24 [4]
American University American University Eagles 3 4 7 6 3 3 5 31 Karl Wagerson '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Ryan Curtis '26 [3-4, 7]
Charles Degen '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Thomas Clauson '26 [3-4, 7]
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 2 5 6 2 5 6 5 2 31 Jackson Eshelman '26 [1-4]
Anna Groszkowski '26 [5-7]
Zoe Apsel '23 [1-4]
Lauren Laughlin '23 [5-7]
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 6 5 5 4 5 6 3 34 Julia Hudson '24
Charlotte-Emilie Pirnik '24
Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Cardinals 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 48 Caroline Grogan '26
Catey Knopf '23
Johnnies Johnnies Johnnies DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 63
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 9 Mason Chapman '26 [1-6]
Andrew Montague '25 [7]
Colin Miedler '26 [1-6]
Lila Gibson '26 [7]
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 2 3 2 3 2 3 4 19 Sam Dutilly '24
Levi Nathans '23
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies BKD 1 3 4 3 4 3 21 Brock Diaz '23
Caleb Mcginn '23
University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 4 4 4 2 6 7 2 29 Eric Garvey '23 [1-7]
Alexandra Terres '24 [1-3, 5-7]
Maia Brydon '23 [4]
American University American University Eagles 3 5 6 6 4 1 7 32 Anika Liner '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Jacob Juros '24 [3-4, 7]
Julia Kane '25 [1-2, 5-6]
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 2 5 6 5 7 5 6 6 40 Patrick Mcbride '25 [1-4]
Lydia Sweeney '25 [5-7]
Brooke Davi '25 [1-4]
Grant Giangrasso '24 [5-7]
Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Cardinals 6 7 7 5 7 5 5 42 Benedict Gorman '25 [1-7]
Jillian Ingram '25 [1-6]
Eilis Mccormick '23 [7]
Johnnies Johnnies Johnnies DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 63
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.160+0.16
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
American UniversityAmerican University Eagles1133557
Catholic University of AmericaCatholic University of America Cardinals2244661
University of MarylandUniversity of Maryland Terps4466772
JohnniesJohnnies Johnnies3388888
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos 15577113
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos 26655224
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Hokies7711335
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe8822446

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
American UniversityAmerican University Eagles2244662
Catholic University of AmericaCatholic University of America Cardinals3355771
University of MarylandUniversity of Maryland Terps5577113
JohnniesJohnnies Johnnies4888888
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos 16666224
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos 27711335
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Hokies8422446
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe1133557
School / Team SkipperCrew
American University American University Karl Wagerson '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Ryan Curtis '26 [3-4, 7]
Charles Degen '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Thomas Clauson '26 [3-4, 7]
Eagles Anika Liner '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Jacob Juros '24 [3-4, 7]
Julia Kane '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Caroline Grogan '26 Catey Knopf '23
Cardinals Benedict Gorman '25 [1-7] Jillian Ingram '25 [1-6]
Eilis Mccormick '23 [7]
University of Maryland University of Maryland William Mccollum '23 [1-7] Umd Test '25 [1-3, 5-7]
Hayden Lamb '24 [4]
Terps Eric Garvey '23 [1-7] Alexandra Terres '24 [1-3, 5-7]
Maia Brydon '23 [4]
University of Virginia University of Virginia Marco Centanaro Garcia '23 [1-6]
Maxwell Penders '25 [7]
Laura Rhodes '24 [1-6]
Claire Miller '26 [7]
Wahoos 1 Mason Chapman '26 [1-6]
Andrew Montague '25 [7]
Colin Miedler '26 [1-6]
Lila Gibson '26 [7]
University of Virginia University of Virginia Jackson Eshelman '26 [1-4]
Anna Groszkowski '26 [5-7]
Zoe Apsel '23 [1-4]
Lauren Laughlin '23 [5-7]
Wahoos 2 Patrick Mcbride '25 [1-4]
Lydia Sweeney '25 [5-7]
Brooke Davi '25 [1-4]
Grant Giangrasso '24 [5-7]
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Aidan Young '24 Adam Ginsburg '25
Hokies Brock Diaz '23 Caleb Mcginn '23
William and Mary William and Mary Julia Hudson '24 Charlotte-Emilie Pirnik '24
Tribe Sam Dutilly '24 Levi Nathans '23

Conditions — 10/15/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 48%  ·  Pressure 1015.0 hPa

Temperature

67°F
↑ 76°F   ↓ 47°F
Feels like 62°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.3 kn
avg  ·  max 9.9 kn
Gusts to 23.3 kn
From SSW (202°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover3% Sunshine10.5 hrs Humidity48% Pressure1015.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 12 kn · SE 4 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Virginia: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.30 ± 0.21)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Virginia by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Virginia, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →