University of Virginia '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.55 (fleet 0.79) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 6–15 (29%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 6–15 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (21 matches) the record is 6–15 against 8.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-18 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 0.90 | -0.23 | 6–15 | 8.1 | −1.13 | 1.6 | 97% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| W&M Spring Open | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.8 | 1.44 |
| Hanbury Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 12.8 | -2.58 |
| The Grant | Skipper | A | 12 | 11.1 | 0.27 |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 14 | 17.5 | -0.69 |
| Kingsmill Cup | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.1 | 1.29 |
| Jefferson Cup | Skipper | B | 7 | 3.3 | 1.57 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Spring Open | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.5 | 1.63 |
| Jeremy A. Pinkerton Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| Hanbury Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 10.5 | 0.26 |
| America Trophy - Conference Championship | Skipper | B | 15 | 16.9 | 0.10 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Webb/Wollum | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.0 | 1.45 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 4 | 12.5 | 0.26 |
| Luce Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.9 | 1.07 |
| Kingsmill Cup | Skipper | B | 8 | 3.8 | 0.78 |
| Jefferson Cup | Skipper | B | 8 | 2.0 | 1.96 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 29% | — |
| Spring Open | Skipper | B | 1 | 3.0 | — |
| Ocean County Spring Open | Skipper | A | 13 | 6.2 | 1.26 |
| The Grant | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.1 | 1.26 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 4 | 15.2 | 1.13 |
| Princeton Fall Open | Skipper | A | 7 | 2.4 | 2.22 |
| Luce Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 6.9 | 1.07 |
| Kingsmill Cup | Skipper | B | 4 | 2.5 | 1.87 |
| Jefferson Cup | Skipper | A | 1 | 4.0 | — |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Spring Open | Skipper | B | 5 | 3.4 | 0.61 |
| Jeremy A. Pinkerton Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 8 | 1.8 | 2.22 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Kingsmill Cup | Skipper | B | 2 | 4.5 | 0.96 |
| Kings Point Dinghy Open | Skipper | B | 6 | 15.2 | 0.87 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
