Jefferson Cup

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 12 15 27
2 Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 15 28 43
3 University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 1 23 23 46
4 William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 32 19 51
5 University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 36 35 71
6 American University American University Eagles 52 34 86
7 Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 41 46 87
8 University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 2 41 52 93
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 2 1 1 2 2 3 1 12 Ryan Brelage '28
Julia Boutet '27
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 1 3 3 4 1 1 2 15 James Lilyquist '28
Arturo Soriano Iii '27
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 1 4 2 7 1 4 2 3 23 Andrew Montague '25
Lila Gibson '26
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 5 4 2 5 6 6 4 32 Finian Knight '28
Alexa Bodor '26
University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 3 8 5 6 3 4 7 36 Jared Cohen '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Brian Zagalsky '25 [3-4, 7]
Emma Retzlaff '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Linnea Spear '27 [3-4, 7]
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 6 6 6 8 5 5 5 41 Justin Marquez '28 [1-2, 7]
Makenna Labor '25 [3-6]
Brady Watkins '24 [1-2]
John Murray Iii '27 [3-4, 7]
Riley Cook '27 [5-6]
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 2 7 5 4 3 7 7 8 41 Henry Myrick '26 [1-4]
James Unger '27 [5-7]
Morgan Rathjen '28 [1-4]
Rhett Armentrout '28 [5-7]
American University American University Eagles 8 7 8 7 8 8 6 52 James Cottage '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Ryan Curtis '26 [3-4, 7]
Julia Kane '25 [1-2, 7]
Ella Napolitano '26 [3-4]
Edie Pressel '26 [5-6]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 1 4 6 1 1 1 1 15 William Wheary '28
Joseph Morgan '27
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 4 2 1 3 3 2 4 19 Charlotte Stillman '27
Meredith Endres '26
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 1 5 1 3 2 5 4 3 23 Maxwell Penders '25 [1-7]
Iliana Vasslides '27 [1-4]
Claire Calkins '28 [5-7]
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 3 3 2 4 6 8 2 28 Zachary Bender '28 [1-4, 7]
Elizabeth Heckler '26 [5-6]
Adam Ginsburg '25 [1-4]
Georgia Kimball '24 [5-6]
Daniel Langdon '26 [7]
American University American University Eagles 2 7 5 5 4 5 6 34 Hannah Arey '27 [1-7]
Katherine Anderson '27 [1-2, 7]
Ella Lane '25 [3-6]
University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 6 5 7 7 2 3 5 35 Eli Leopold '28 [1-2, 5-6]
Caroline Fuller '28 [3-4, 7]
Samantha Osborne '26 [1-2, 5-6]
Carmen Benitez '27 [3-4, 7]
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 8 8 4 6 7 6 7 46 Erich Laughlin '28 [1-2]
Nathan Mascia '26 [3-7]
Chace Theodori '26 [1-2, 7]
Riley Cook '27 [3-4]
Erich Laughlin '28 [5-6]
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 2 7 6 8 8 8 7 8 52 Anne Krieger '27 [1-4]
Robert Cantus '25 [5-7]
Joseph Liberatore '25 [1-4]
Rachel Eid '28 [5-7]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.160+0.16
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
American UniversityAmerican University Eagles1133557
University of MarylandUniversity of Maryland Terps4466882
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack2244668
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions3355771
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos 15577113
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos 26688224
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Hokies7711335
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe8822446

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
American UniversityAmerican University Eagles2244668
University of MarylandUniversity of Maryland Terps5577113
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack3355771
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions4466882
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos 16688224
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos 27711335
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Hokies8822446
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe1133557
School / Team SkipperCrew
American University American University James Cottage '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Ryan Curtis '26 [3-4, 7]
Julia Kane '25 [1-2, 7]
Ella Napolitano '26 [3-4]
Edie Pressel '26 [5-6]
Eagles Hannah Arey '27 [1-7] Katherine Anderson '27 [1-2, 7]
Ella Lane '25 [3-6]
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Ryan Brelage '28 Julia Boutet '27
Wolfpack William Wheary '28 Joseph Morgan '27
Penn State University Penn State University Justin Marquez '28 [1-2, 7]
Makenna Labor '25 [3-6]
Brady Watkins '24 [1-2]
John Murray Iii '27 [3-4, 7]
Riley Cook '27 [5-6]
Nittany Lions Erich Laughlin '28 [1-2]
Nathan Mascia '26 [3-7]
Chace Theodori '26 [1-2, 7]
Riley Cook '27 [3-4]
Erich Laughlin '28 [5-6]
University of Maryland University of Maryland Jared Cohen '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Brian Zagalsky '25 [3-4, 7]
Emma Retzlaff '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Linnea Spear '27 [3-4, 7]
Terps Eli Leopold '28 [1-2, 5-6]
Caroline Fuller '28 [3-4, 7]
Samantha Osborne '26 [1-2, 5-6]
Carmen Benitez '27 [3-4, 7]
University of Virginia University of Virginia Andrew Montague '25 Lila Gibson '26
Wahoos 1 Maxwell Penders '25 [1-7] Iliana Vasslides '27 [1-4]
Claire Calkins '28 [5-7]
University of Virginia University of Virginia Henry Myrick '26 [1-4]
James Unger '27 [5-7]
Morgan Rathjen '28 [1-4]
Rhett Armentrout '28 [5-7]
Wahoos 2 Anne Krieger '27 [1-4]
Robert Cantus '25 [5-7]
Joseph Liberatore '25 [1-4]
Rachel Eid '28 [5-7]
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech James Lilyquist '28 Arturo Soriano Iii '27
Hokies Zachary Bender '28 [1-4, 7]
Elizabeth Heckler '26 [5-6]
Adam Ginsburg '25 [1-4]
Georgia Kimball '24 [5-6]
Daniel Langdon '26 [7]
William and Mary William and Mary Finian Knight '28 Alexa Bodor '26
Tribe Charlotte Stillman '27 Meredith Endres '26

Conditions — 10/05/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 57%  ·  Pressure 1021.2 hPa

Temperature

74°F
↑ 78°F   ↓ 60°F
Feels like 74°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.7 kn
avg  ·  max 5.6 kn
Gusts to 14.2 kn
From NNE (14°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover1% Sunshine10.7 hrs Humidity57% Pressure1021.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 7 kn · S 8 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Virginia: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.03
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.16 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Virginia by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Virginia, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →