Spring Open

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 22 6 28
2 University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 21 14 35
3 Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 11 33 44
4 William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 24 23 47
5 Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 23 28 51
6 American University American University Eagles 29 31 60
7 University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 38 33 71
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 1 1 3 4 1 1 11 Barrett Lhamon '26 [1-6]
Makenna Labor '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Aditya Patel '25 [3-4]
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 6 4 1 5 2 3 21 Maxwell Penders '25 [1-6]
Aliyah Oakley '27 [1-4]
Iliana Vasslides '27 [5-6]
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 4 5 4 2 5 2 22 Joshua Bendura '26
Berend Vandermeer '27
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 2 7 2 1 6 5 23 Aidan Young '24 [1-6]
Daniel Langdon '26 [1-2]
Natalie Rogers '27 [3-4]
Emil Morin '26 [5-6]
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 3 3 5 3 3 7 24 Julia Hudson '24 [1-6]
Audrey Craig '25 [1-4]
William Kobos '24 [5-6]
American University American University Eagles 5 2 7 7 4 4 29 Hannah Arey '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Ella Lane '25 [3-4]
Katherine Anderson '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Ella Napolitano '26 [3-4]
University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 7 6 6 6 7 6 38 Anthony Thonnard '26
Audrey Bongiovanni '25
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 1 1 1 1 1 1 6 Aston Atherton '26
Gabrielle Byrne '26
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 2 2 2 2 3 3 14 Mason Chapman '26
Martha Dwyer '27
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 5 7 3 4 2 2 23 Sebastian Morales-Talero '27 [1-2]
Eric Johnson '27 [3-6]
Donald St. Claire '24 [1-2]
Daniel Shpigel '25 [3-4]
Charlotte-Emilie Pirnik '24 [5-6]
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 3 3 6 7 5 4 28 Malik Deslauriers '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Sam Springer '24 [3-4]
Maya Moschallski '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Colin Peters '27 [3-4]
American University American University Eagles 4 4 5 5 7 6 31 James Cottage '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Ryan Curtis '26 [3-4]
Julia Kane '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Ella Dentinger '26 [3-4]
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 6 5 7 6 4 5 33 Nathan Mascia '26 [1-2, 5-6]
Jack Springer '27 [3-4]
Mckenna Wall '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Ryan Galella '27 [3-4]
University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 7 6 4 3 6 7 33 Emma Retzlaff '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Jared Cohen '25 [3-4]
Carmen Benitez '27 [1-4]
Jared Cohen '25 [5-6]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.180+0.18
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2024 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
American UniversityAmerican University Eagles225577
Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport University Captains446688
University of MarylandUniversity of Maryland Terps668822
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions557799
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos779944
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Hokies882255
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe994466

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
American UniversityAmerican University Eagles446688
Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport University Captains557799
University of MarylandUniversity of Maryland Terps779944
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions668822
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos882255
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Hokies994466
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe225577
School / Team SkipperCrew
American University American University Hannah Arey '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Ella Lane '25 [3-4]
Katherine Anderson '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Ella Napolitano '26 [3-4]
Eagles James Cottage '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Ryan Curtis '26 [3-4]
Julia Kane '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Ella Dentinger '26 [3-4]
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Joshua Bendura '26 Berend Vandermeer '27
Captains Aston Atherton '26 Gabrielle Byrne '26
Penn State University Penn State University Barrett Lhamon '26 [1-6] Makenna Labor '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Aditya Patel '25 [3-4]
Nittany Lions Nathan Mascia '26 [1-2, 5-6]
Jack Springer '27 [3-4]
Mckenna Wall '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Ryan Galella '27 [3-4]
University of Maryland University of Maryland Anthony Thonnard '26 Audrey Bongiovanni '25
Terps Emma Retzlaff '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Jared Cohen '25 [3-4]
Carmen Benitez '27 [1-4]
Jared Cohen '25 [5-6]
University of Virginia University of Virginia Maxwell Penders '25 [1-6] Aliyah Oakley '27 [1-4]
Iliana Vasslides '27 [5-6]
Wahoos Mason Chapman '26 Martha Dwyer '27
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Aidan Young '24 [1-6] Daniel Langdon '26 [1-2]
Natalie Rogers '27 [3-4]
Emil Morin '26 [5-6]
Hokies Malik Deslauriers '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Sam Springer '24 [3-4]
Maya Moschallski '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Colin Peters '27 [3-4]
William and Mary William and Mary Julia Hudson '24 [1-6] Audrey Craig '25 [1-4]
William Kobos '24 [5-6]
Tribe Sebastian Morales-Talero '27 [1-2]
Eric Johnson '27 [3-6]
Donald St. Claire '24 [1-2]
Daniel Shpigel '25 [3-4]
Charlotte-Emilie Pirnik '24 [5-6]

Conditions — 03/30/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 47%  ·  Pressure 1013.0 hPa

Temperature

64°F
↑ 74°F   ↓ 42°F
Feels like 60°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.8 kn
avg  ·  max 10.3 kn
Gusts to 24.7 kn
From WSW (241°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover75% Sunshine10.5 hrs Humidity47% Pressure1013.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 8 kn · E 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at William and Mary: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.03
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.21 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at William and Mary by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 10 labelled days at William and Mary, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →