Jefferson Cup

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 1 16 16 32
2 Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 39 13 52
3 University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 2 25 34 59
4 William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 31 31 62
5 American University American University Eagles 32 36 68
6 University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 37 35 72
7 Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Cardinals 47 55 102
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 1 1 6 2 2 1 1 1 2 16 Andrew Montague '25
Lila Gibson '26
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 2 4 5 1 1 3 2 4 5 25 Connor Lothrop '24 [1-8]
Iliana Vasslides '27 [1-4]
Claire Miller '26 [5-8]
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 2 1 7 7 2 3 3 6 31 Sam Dutilly '24
Meredith Endres '26
American University American University Eagles 6 2 5 3 6 4 2 4 32 Karl Wagerson '24 [1-8]
Daniel Litwin '26 [1-4]
James Cottage '27 [5-8]
University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 3 3 4 4 5 DNF 7 3 37 Anthony Thonnard '26
Hayden Lamb '24
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 7 7 3 6 4 5 6 1 39 Daniel Hale '27
Arturo Soriano Iii '27
Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Cardinals 5 4 6 5 7 DNS 5 7 47 Benedict Gorman '25 [1-8]
Maylis De Saint Victor '24 [1-2]
Isabel Fay '27 [3-4, 7-8]
Adrian Avila '27 [5-6]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 1 1 2 3 2 2 1 1 13 Aidan Young '24
Adam Ginsburg '25
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 1 2 3 1 1 1 1 3 4 16 Maxwell Penders '25
Katie Yost '26
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 3 4 3 2 5 3 5 6 31 Julia Hudson '24
Shelby Woodward '25
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 2 6 6 6 4 BKD BKD 2 2 34 Anne Krieger '27 [1-2]
Benjamin D’Amico '27 [3-4]
James Unger '27 [5-8]
Joseph Liberatore '25 [1-2]
Anne Krieger '27 [3-4]
Martha Dwyer '27 [5-8]
University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 5 7 4 5 3 BKD 4 3 35 Carter Saunders '25 [1-8]
Alexandra Terres '24 [1-5]
Maia Brydon '23 [6-8]
American University American University Eagles 4 2 5 6 4 4 6 5 36 Anika Liner '25
Julia Kane '25
Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Cardinals 7 5 7 7 6 DNF 7 DNF 55 Maylis De Saint Victor '24 [1-3, 5-8]
John Anthony Caraig '27 [4]
John Anthony Caraig '27 [1-3, 5-6]
Maylis De Saint Victor '24 [4]
Faith Dickerson '25 [7-8]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.160+0.16
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
American UniversityAmerican University Eagles11335577
Catholic University of AmericaCatholic University of America Cardinals22446611
University of MarylandUniversity of Maryland Terps33557722
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos 144661133
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos 255772244
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Hokies66113355
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe77224466

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
American UniversityAmerican University Eagles22446611
Catholic University of AmericaCatholic University of America Cardinals33557722
University of MarylandUniversity of Maryland Terps44661133
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos 155772244
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos 266113355
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Hokies77224466
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe11335577

Conditions — 10/14/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 82%  ·  Pressure 1004.6 hPa

Temperature

62°F
↑ 68°F   ↓ 53°F
Feels like 63°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.7 kn
avg  ·  max 6.1 kn
Gusts to 15.0 kn
From S (188°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover91% Sunshine6.6 hrs Humidity82% Pressure1004.6 hPa Rain0.11 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 6 kn · N 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Virginia: a typical day (+0.00)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.07
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.06 ± 0.22)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Virginia by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Virginia, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →