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David Lee Arnoff Trophy

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 84
2 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 106
3 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 160
4 Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 192
5 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 198
6 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 204
7 Washington College Washington College Shoremen 221
8 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 228
9 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 311
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red B 9 11 1 2 1 1 1 3 11 1 41 Sophia Peck '26 [1-4]
J.J. Smith '24 [5-10]
Sophia Fogarty '25 [1-4]
Rocco Cappetta '24 [5-10]
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red A 2 2 8 8 6 5 2 1 5 4 43 Lauren Ehnot '24 [1-8]
Hayden Earl '25 [9-10]
Sophia Mulvania '26 [1-8]
Sophia Fogarty '25 [9-10]
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers B 12 1 3 1 3 6 9 2 1 11 49 Christopher Sharpless '23 [1-10]
Caroline Dannacher '25 [1-4]
Laurentiu Taritsa '23 [5-10]
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers A 3 10 5 5 5 7 4 4 9 3 55 Connor Mraz '23 [1-10]
Isabella Impalli '22 [1-4, 9-10]
Vincent Nguyen '25 [5-8]
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers A 1 4 6 3 8 3 3 9 7 13 57 Samuel Gavula '24 [1-4, 9-10]
Cole Woodworth '26 [5-8]
Hannah Bast '25 [1-4, 9-10]
Anna Hoffman '26 [5-8]
Washington College Washington College Shoremen A 10 6 2 10 4 2 7 7 8 5 61 Stewart Gurnell '23
Kennedy Jones '24
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers A 5 5 9 4 2 4 11 5 10 9 64 Reed Weston '23 [1-10]
Maeve Katics '26 [1-4, 9-10]
Matthew Keberlein '25 [5-8]
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners A 6 8 11 6 BKD BKD 5 8 3 8 69 Lars Osell '24
Rey Jacob Alino '25
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 A 4 9 4 11 10 8 8 10 2 7 73 Nicholas Sessions '24
Valyn Mogensen '26
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 B 15 3 12 13 12 14 6 6 4 2 87 Richard Gleason '24 [1-10]
Rachel Duggan '25 [1-5]
Cooper Delbridge '26 [6-10]
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 A 8 13 7 7 13 13 10 13 12 6 102 Thomas Walker '24
Elijah Goldman '26
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 B 11 7 10 12 7 9 16 12 6 12 102 Pete Mcgriff '24
Colin Dubose '25
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers B 13 12 14 15 11 10 12 17 15 15 134 Abe Weston '25
Lauren Bemis '26
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers B 7 15 13 9 15 15 17 18 14 14 137 Jasper Waldman '25
Calif Chen '23
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines B 16 18 15 17 14 12 15 11 17 16 151 Gordon Fream '25
Lexi Sessions '26
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners B 18 17 16 18 18 18 13 15 16 10 159 Sunrae Sturmer '23
Andrew Campbell '23
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines A 14 16 17 16 17 16 14 14 18 18 160 Samuel Stephens '25 [1-8]
Jack Hammett '26 [9-10]
Bryson Denuyl '24 [1-8]
Isaac Bigsby '22 [9-10]
Washington College Washington College Shoremen B 17 14 18 14 16 17 18 16 13 17 160 Joseph Bonacci '25
Emma Macturk '23
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.160+0.16
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red1111222233
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1222211111818
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 23333444455
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners5555666677
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines6666555544
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers7777888899
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers4444333322
Washington CollegeWashington College Shoremen9999101010101111
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers8888777766

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red10101010999988
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 111111111121212121313
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 212121212111111111010
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners14141414131313131212
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines15151515161616161717
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers16161616151515151414
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers13131313141414141515
Washington CollegeWashington College Shoremen18181818171717171616
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers171717171818181811

Conditions — 10/15/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 57%  ·  Pressure 1010.0 hPa

Temperature

59°F
↑ 67°F   ↓ 50°F
Feels like 52°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.7 kn
avg  ·  max 14.7 kn
Gusts to 31.7 kn
From SSW (206°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover43% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity57% Pressure1010.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 25 kn · S 11 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Hobart & William: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.10)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.08 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast +0.02
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.20 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hobart & William by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 14 labelled days at Hobart & William, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →