University of Delaware '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.15 (fleet 0.20) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 1–32 (3%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 1–32 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (33 matches) the record is 1–32 against 1.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-18 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 0.46 | 1.11 | 1–20 | 0.6 | +0.65 | 0.2 | 46% |
| 2023-03-04 | Tom Noble Team Race | skipper | 0.26 | -2.74 | 0–12 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.8 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 5% | — |
| Tom Noble Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 0% | — |
| College Sailing National Invitational | Skipper | A | 9 | 13.0 | — |
| The Grant | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.4 | 1.48 |
| Drexel Open | Skipper | A | 1 | 2.0 | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Fall Open | Skipper | A | 9 | 9.9 | 0.67 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Drexel Open | Skipper | A | 5 | 4.0 | 0.42 |
| College Sailing Regional Teams Nat'l Invitational | Skipper | A | 8 | 15.0 | -0.68 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| McCurdy Memorial | Skipper | A | 5 | 4.0 | 0.56 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Philly Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 6 | 13.0 | -1.95 |
| McCurdy Memorial | Skipper | B | 4 | 2.2 | 1.26 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
