Navigate

Jesuit Invite

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1 32 32
2 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 2 39 39
3 SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1 46 46
4 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 3 55 55
5 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 1 57 57
6 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1 60 60
7 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2 63 63
8 SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 2 65 65
9 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 2 71 71
10 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 3 76 76
11 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3 98 98
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1 1 1 4 6 3 4 2 5 2 4 32 Thomas Green '23
Patrick York '24
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 2 OCS 3 3 1 2 3 4 6 4 1 39 Benjamin Honig '26
Amelia Popp '25
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1 10 4 8 2 4 2 9 2 3 2 46 Spencer Barnes '24
Shawn Tirone '25
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 3 3 2 1 OCS 5 8 1 10 7 6 55 John Majernik '25
Caroline Dannacher '25
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 1 2 6 10 3 8 7 6 7 1 7 57 Will Donovan '25
Leah Spadaro '25
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1 5 7 6 4 6 1 7 3 10 11 60 Madeleine Rice '24 [1-10]
Eva Gonzalez-Whitehouse '26 [1-4]
Claire Dubois '23 [5-10]
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2 9 8 5 7 1 5 5 9 9 5 63 Lars Osell '24
Andrew Campbell '23
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 2 4 9 2 9 9 9 10 4 6 3 65 Isabelle Gautier '26 [1-5]
Rebecca Runyan '25 [6-10]
Nicole Schafer '23 [1-5]
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 2 8 5 7 8 7 6 11 1 8 10 71 Lucas Thress '26
Ryan Thompson '26
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 3 7 10 9 5 10 10 3 8 5 9 76 James Owen '25
Margot Dugan '24
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3 6 11 11 10 11 11 8 11 11 8 98 Patrick Modin '23
William Tetrev '26
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2022 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams 11111122222
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams 22222233333
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams 33333344444
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 113131313131414141414
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 214141414141515151515
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 315151515151616161616
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers 14444466666
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers 2666661313131313
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers 116161616161717171717
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers 217171717171818181818
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers 3181818181811111

Conditions — 10/08/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 55%  ·  Pressure 1020.8 hPa

Temperature

55°F
↑ 58°F   ↓ 49°F
Feels like 49°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.7 kn
avg  ·  max 8.0 kn
Gusts to 16.7 kn
From NW (312°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover43% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity55% Pressure1020.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 9 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Fordham: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.08 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.13
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.39 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Fordham by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (25 labelled days at Fordham).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →