University of Pennsylvania '26
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.56 (fleet 3.61) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.05 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 18–29 (38%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 5 | 18–29 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (45 matches) the record is 18–27 against 22.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-13 | Thompson Trophy-CGA | skipper | 2.75 | 2.24 | 5–15 | 6.8 | −0.52 | 0.6 | 88% |
| 2024-04-06 | MAISA Open Team Race/Prosser Trophy | skipper | 2.87 | 2.03 | 4–6 | 5.8 | −0.84 | 1.1 | 94% |
| 2024-03-23 | Admiral Moore Open Team Race | skipper | 2.74 | 3.42 | 6–2 | 5.0 | +0.67 | 0.5 | 36% |
| 2024-03-09 | John Jackson Memorial Team Race | skipper | 2.58 | 1.20 | 3–4 | 4.5 | −1.38 | 1.4 | 97% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Western Open National Semi-Finals | Skipper | B | 7 | 10.4 | 3.12 |
| Thompson Trophy-CGA | Skipper | TR | 19 | 21% | — |
| MAISA Open Team Race/Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 36% | — |
| John Jackson Memorial Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 43% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 33% | — |
| America Trophy - Conference Championship | Skipper | B | 15 | 7.1 | 3.58 |
| Admiral Moore Open Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 78% | — |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| WAR MEMORIAL | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.5 | 3.72 |
| Open Atlantic Coast Championships Round 1A | Skipper | B | 8 | 11.6 | 2.83 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.3 | 3.49 |
| KP Open Invite | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.3 | 1.88 |
| Jack Boehringer '52 Open Invite | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.4 | 3.11 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.1 | 4.73 |
| Atlantic Coast Open Championship Finals | Skipper | B | 6 | 13.2 | 3.28 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Owen Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 7.9 | 2.66 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Top 9 Open | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.9 | 2.96 |
| New York Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | A | 1 | 2.0 | — |
| Jesuit Invite | Skipper | A | 9 | 3.0 | 3.45 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
