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# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 127
2 SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 132
3 George Washington University George Washington University Buff and Blue 176
4 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 196
5 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 1 264
6 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 1 265
7 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 2 287
8 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 291
9 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 2 314
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers B 2 6 4 5 1 3 1 8 3 2 9 1 45 Nick Chisari '23
Shawn Tirone '25
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 A 4 1 6 1 7 1 13 4 2 3 4 11 57 Will Murray '24
Valyn Mogensen '26
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers B 10 8 12 8 5 2 2 1 1 1 6 3 59 Benjamin Honig '26
Amelia Popp '25
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 B 3 3 5 9 6 7 3 3 13 8 5 5 70 Juan Carlos Lacerda Jones '26
Rachel Duggan '25
George Washington University George Washington University Buff and Blue A 12 16 1 4 13 5 6 7 8 5 3 6 86 Owen Timms '23 [1-4]
Oscar Macgillivray '24 [5-12]
Ella Adelman '26 [1-11]
Henry Mcpherson '25 [12]
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers A 14 4 3 6 2 6 5 9 4 11 15 8 87 Spencer Barnes '24
Eva Leggett '24
George Washington University George Washington University Buff and Blue B 5 5 11 10 10 4 7 2 12 12 8 4 90 Tyler Wood '26
Abbie Chipps '25
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 2 A 7 13 9 2 3 9 15 14 9 4 2 7 94 Beckett Kumler '24
Lauren Miller '23
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 A 6 10 10 7 9 11 9 15 6 10 1 10 104 Richard Gleason '24
Cooper Delbridge '26
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 1 A 1 2 7 11 4 10 10 5 15 14 17 12 108 Kenneth Corsig '23
Kristen Healy '24
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 2 A 11 9 13 3 8 13 11 12 7 9 13 2 111 Sophia Peck '26
Lilly Bjerke '25
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 1 B 13 11 14 17 11 8 12 6 10 13 7 9 131 Lauren Ehnot '24
Clara Hewson '24
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 1 A 8 7 8 15 16 12 17 13 5 7 12 14 134 Aidan Lane '24
Rocco Cappetta '24
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers A 9 12 2 13 12 16 14 16 11 6 11 15 137 Cole Woodworth '26
Anna Hoffman '26
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 1 B 15 14 15 16 14 15 4 11 14 15 10 13 156 Patrick Dolan '25
Bella Rabeni '24
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 B 18 15 17 12 15 14 16 17 16 16 14 17 187 Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon '26 [1-8]
Owen Carolan '26 [9-12]
Elijah Goldman '26 [1-8]
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 2 B 16 18 16 14 17 17 8 18 17 18 18 16 193 Lucas Thress '26
Leah Spadaro '25
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 2 B 17 17 18 18 18 18 18 10 18 17 16 18 203 Ava Grace Sannino '26 [1-4]
Ethan Stoffman '24 [5-12]
Isabel Dhar '23 [1-10]
Peter Jordan '23 [11-12]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 1111122223333
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 22222111118181818
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams 1333344445555
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams 2444433332222
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Buff and Blue555566667777
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1666655554444
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2777788889999
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers888877776666
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers99991010101011111111

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 11010101099998888
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 2111111111212121213131313
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams 1121212121111111110101010
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams 2131313131414141415151515
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Buff and Blue141414141313131312121212
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1151515151616161617171717
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2161616161515151514141414
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers17171717181818181111
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers181818181717171716161616

Conditions — 09/24/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 65%  ·  Pressure 1016.5 hPa

Temperature

57°F
↑ 61°F   ↓ 49°F
Feels like 55°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.3 kn
avg  ·  max 5.2 kn
Gusts to 14.0 kn
From NW (316°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover58% Sunshine10.6 hrs Humidity65% Pressure1016.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 7 kn* · S 8 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Cornell: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.11 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.18
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.20 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Cornell by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled days at Cornell).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →