Graham Hall Team Race

HostNavy
Date03/16/2024
TypeCross Regional
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Harvard University	Crimson	17–1
2	Yale University	Bulldogs	15–3
3	Brown University	Bears	14–4
4	Georgetown University	Hoyas	12–6
5	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	11–4
6	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	10–5
7	College of Charleston	Cougars	8–7
8	Cornell University	Big Red	6–9
9	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	6–9
10	Tulane University	Green Wave	6–9
11	Tufts University	Jumbos	5–10
12	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	5–10
13	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	5–10
14	Fordham University	Rams	3–12
15	George Washington University	Revolutionaries	2–13
16	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	1–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 22,767 team race matches sailed before 2024-03-16, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 105 of 126 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.382 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.32 ± 0.17: an orderly event, more orderly than 77% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Harvard University Crimson	1	12.15 school +0.23	Justin Callahan / Kennedy Leehealey 4.04 16–1 Mitchell Callahan / Alexandra Dorofeev 3.85 16–1 Lachlain Mcgranahan / Marbella Marlo 4.11 15–1 Robby Meek / Marbella Marlo 3.60 2–0 Robby Meek / Kennedy Leehealey 3.59 1–0 Robby Meek / Alexandra Dorofeev 3.72 1–0	88%	17–1 (94%)	+1.2
2	Yale University Bulldogs	2	11.60 school +0.27	Teddy Nicolosi / Ashley Highland 3.92 13–2 Morgan Pinckney / Jessi Avila-Shah 3.43 10–3 Jack Egan / Elle Sykes 3.92 10–2 Stephan Baker / Jessi Avila-Shah 3.67 5–0 Stephan Baker / Elle Sykes 3.73 2–0 Jack Egan / Carmen Berg 3.91 2–0 Teddy Nicolosi / Carmen Berg 3.89 1–1 Jack Egan / Nathan Sih 3.97 1–1 Stephan Baker / Ashley Highland 3.74 1–0	79%	15–3 (83%)	+0.8
3	Brown University Bears	3	11.25 school +0.25	Connor Nelson / Vera Allen 3.65 Guthrie Braun / Emily Mueller 3.63 13–4 Liam O'Keefe / Savannah Young 3.88 9–3 Liam O'Keefe / Caroline Keeffe-Jones 3.73 4–0 Cam Spriggs / Caroline Keeffe-Jones 2.96 1–1 Cam Spriggs / Savannah Young 3.11 1–0	76%	14–4 (78%)	+0.4
4	Georgetown University Hoyas	5	10.49 school +0.24	Mateo Di Blasi / Addi Harris 3.31 Diego Escobar / Caro Gaston 3.25 11–6 Mariner Fagan / Emily Panarella 3.68 9–4 Mariner Fagan / Spencer Kriegstein 3.66 3–2 Enzo Menditto / Spencer Kriegstein 3.28 1–0	61%	12–6 (67%)	+1.0
5	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	10	9.27 school +0.23	Charlie Anderson / Katherine Shermock 2.67 Owen Hennessey / Zoe Hoctor 3.49 Madison Bashaw / Rachel O'Neill 2.85 8–4 Madison Bashaw / Raam Fox 2.92 3–0	45%	11–4 (73%)	+4.2
6	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	4	10.49 school +0.24, home +0.40	Jack Welburn / Ellie Alex 3.25 Henry Allgeier / Madeline Smith 3.44 Eva Blauvelt / Ryan Wahba 3.05 7–3 Nathan Smith / Darby Graham 3.31 3–2	68%	10–5 (67%)	−0.2
7	College of Charleston Cougars	6	9.70 school +0.36	Noah Zittrer / Lucy Klempen 3.14 Benjamin Dufour / Noelle Owen 3.17 5–5 Axel Stordahl / Andrea Melnik 2.82 4–5 Brandon Geller / Andrea Melnik 3.23 4–2 Brandon Geller / Noelle Owen 3.26 2–2 Axel Stordahl / Noelle Owen 2.86 1–0	53%	8–7 (53%)	+0.1
8	Cornell University Big Red	12	8.88 school −0.14	Bridget Green / Sophia Mulvania 3.43 Winborne Majette / Amelia Neumann 2.75 6–8 Sophia Devling / Sophia Pearce 2.83 5–6 Sophia Devling / Kate Moran 2.72 1–1 Lauren Ehnot / Sophia Pearce 2.79 0–1 Sophia Devling / Amelia Neumann 2.73 0–1 Winborne Majette / Sophia Pearce 2.88 0–1	37%	6–9 (40%)	+0.5
9	Old Dominion University Monarchs	11	8.94 school +0.31	Diogo Silva / Ethan Tutt 2.80 Noyl Odom / Parker Younger 2.88 5–8 Parker Purrington / Asianna Acosta 2.78 2–6 Parker Purrington / Cadence Goodnight 3.05 4–3 Noyl Odom / Cadence Goodnight 3.02 1–1	38%	6–9 (40%)	+0.2
10	Tulane University Green Wave	8	9.47 school +0.07	Hamilton Barclay / Cj Ricci 3.29 Zander King / Alex Makoid 3.06 6–8 Kelly Holthus / Gillian Perrell 3.01 6–7 Kelly Holthus / Abigail Borggaard 3.08 0–2 Zander King / Gillian Perrell 2.98 0–1	48%	6–9 (40%)	−1.2
11	Tufts University Jumbos	9	9.31 school +0.15	Ben Mueller / Henry Tindall 3.26 Trevor Davis / Celia Byrne 3.27 5–9 Wyatt Bischoff / Cindy Wang 2.62 5–9 Trevor Davis / William Eykyn 3.25 0–1 Wyatt Bischoff / Celia Byrne 2.65 0–1	47%	5–10 (33%)	−2.0
12	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	13	8.64 school +0.19	Will Murray / Frances Depke 2.93 Juan Carlos Lacerda Jones / Rachel Duggan 2.84 Jj Klempen / Anna Mcbride 2.67	33%	5–10 (33%)	+0.1
13	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	7	9.54 school +0.31	Jordan Bruce / Shaanti Choi-Bose 3.54 3–10 Jackson Mcaliley / Joshua Zeelander 2.99 3–7 Cole Woodworth / Caroline Dannacher 2.52 2–6 Torrey Chisari / Kiki Bruzzi 3.12 3–2 Madeleine Rice / Anna Hoffman 2.77 2–0 Jordan Bruce / Joshua Zeelander 3.58 2–0 Benjamin Honig / Caroline Dannacher 2.63 0–2 Torrey Chisari / Joshua Zeelander 2.98 0–1 Madeleine Rice / Kiki Bruzzi 2.95 0–1 Cole Woodworth / Kiki Bruzzi 2.82 0–1	50%	5–10 (33%)	−2.5
14	Fordham University Rams	14	8.55	Peter Lobaugh / Kristen Healy 2.95 Jacob Zils / Bella Rabeni 3.00 3–11 Connor Bennett / Ava Brimicombe 2.58 1–8 Beckett Kumler / Rebecca Keller 2.54 2–4 Connor Bennett / Bella Rabeni 2.77 0–1	32%	3–12 (20%)	−1.8
15	George Washington University Revolutionaries	15	7.84 school +0.15	Jedidiah Bechtel / Andre Bochat 2.15 Tyler Wood / Avery Slayton 2.84 1–9 Oscar Macgillivray / Ian Milko 2.52 1–9 Oscar Macgillivray / Sam Schuhwerk 2.52 1–4 Tyler Wood / Sam Schuhwerk 3.02 1–4	20%	2–13 (13%)	−1.1
16	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	16	6.32 school −0.29	Spencer Barnes / Marcus Adam 2.76 Brooks Turcotte / Eva Leggett 1.99 Ben Hosford / Nicholas Cunha 1.82	5%	1–14 (7%)	+0.2

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
5	St. Mary's College of Maryland	9.27	10.98	11–4	6.8	+1.71	5.0	1%
1	Harvard University	12.15	13.09	17–1	15.8	+0.95	0.7	32%
2	Yale University	11.60	11.98	15–3	14.2	+0.38	0.2	44%
4	Georgetown University	10.49	10.87	12–6	11.0	+0.38	0.3	38%
16	SUNY Maritime College	6.32	6.63	1–14	0.8	+0.31	0.1	55%
8	Cornell University	8.88	9.07	6–9	5.5	+0.19	0.1	49%
3	Brown University	11.25	11.42	14–4	13.6	+0.17	0.0	54%
9	Old Dominion University	8.94	9.03	6–9	5.8	+0.09	0.0	56%
12	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	8.64	8.68	5–10	4.9	+0.04	0.0	60%
7	College of Charleston	9.70	9.73	8–7	7.9	+0.03	0.0	61%
6	U. S. Naval Academy	10.49	10.41	10–5	10.2	−0.08	0.0	68%
10	Tulane University	9.47	9.00	6–9	7.2	−0.47	0.4	86%
15	George Washington University	7.84	7.17	2–13	3.1	−0.67	0.5	88%
11	Tufts University	9.31	8.53	5–10	7.0	−0.77	1.1	94%
14	Fordham University	8.55	7.71	3–12	4.8	−0.84	1.0	94%
13	University of Pennsylvania	9.54	8.57	5–10	7.5	−0.97	1.7	97%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Charlie Anderson	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.67	4.38	11–4	6.8	+1.71	5.0	1%
Madeleine Rice	University of Pennsylvania	2.77	3.61	2–1	1.8	+0.84	0.1	71%
Ben Hosford	SUNY Maritime College	1.82	2.14	1–14	0.8	+0.31	0.1	55%
Winborne Majette	Cornell University	2.75	2.94	6–9	5.5	+0.19	0.1	49%
Diogo Silva	Old Dominion University	2.80	2.88	6–9	5.8	+0.09	0.0	56%
Noyl Odom	Old Dominion University	2.88	2.97	6–9	5.8	+0.09	0.0	56%
Benjamin Dufour	College of Charleston	3.17	3.12	5–5	5.1	−0.05	0.0	68%
Axel Stordahl	College of Charleston	2.82	2.67	5–5	5.3	−0.15	0.0	72%
Eva Blauvelt	U. S. Naval Academy	3.05	2.87	7–3	7.3	−0.18	0.0	75%
Beckett Kumler	Fordham University	2.54	1.93	2–4	2.6	−0.62	0.3	87%
Owen Hennessey	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.49	2.82	2–13	3.1	−0.67	0.5	88%
Jedidiah Bechtel	George Washington University	2.15	1.48	2–13	3.1	−0.67	0.5	88%
Torrey Chisari	University of Pennsylvania	3.12	2.39	3–3	3.7	−0.73	0.4	90%
Ben Mueller	Tufts University	3.26	2.48	5–10	7.0	−0.77	1.1	94%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Harvard University	College of Charleston	94%
1	2	Yale University	Tufts University	90%
1	3	Old Dominion University	SUNY Maritime College	93%
1	4	George Washington University	Tulane University	14%	upset
1	5	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	52%
1	6	Brown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	88%
1	7	Cornell University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	53%
1	8	University of Pennsylvania	Fordham University	69%
1	9	Harvard University	Old Dominion University	96%
1	10	Yale University	Tulane University	89%
1	11	College of Charleston	SUNY Maritime College	96%
1	12	Tufts University	George Washington University	83%
1	13	Georgetown University	Cornell University	85%
1	14	Brown University	University of Pennsylvania	87%
1	15	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	85%
1	16	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Fordham University	66%
1	17	Harvard University	SUNY Maritime College	100%
1	18	Yale University	George Washington University	97%
1	19	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	72%
1	20	Brown University	Tufts University	88%
1	21	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	83%
1	22	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Tulane University	45%	upset
1	23	Harvard University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	96%
1	24	Yale University	Fordham University	94%
1	25	College of Charleston	Cornell University	74%
1	26	Tufts University	University of Pennsylvania	48%	upset
1	27	Georgetown University	SUNY Maritime College	98%
1	28	Brown University	George Washington University	95%
1	29	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Old Dominion University	46%	upset
1	30	Tulane University	Fordham University	71%
1	31	Harvard University	U. S. Naval Academy	86%
1	32	Yale University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	93%
1	33	Cornell University	SUNY Maritime College	93%
1	34	University of Pennsylvania	George Washington University	83%
1	35	College of Charleston	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	79%
1	36	Tufts University	Fordham University	73%
1	37	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	85%
1	38	Brown University	Tulane University	88%
1	39	Harvard University	Cornell University	97%
1	40	Yale University	University of Pennsylvania	90%
1	41	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	SUNY Maritime College	91%
1	42	Fordham University	George Washington University	68%
1	43	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	39%	upset
1	44	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Tufts University	49%	upset
1	45	Cornell University	Old Dominion University	52%
1	46	Tulane University	University of Pennsylvania	52%
1	47	Harvard University	Georgetown University	85%
1	48	Yale University	Brown University	54%
1	49	U. S. Naval Academy	SUNY Maritime College	98%
1	50	St. Mary's College of Maryland	George Washington University	81%
1	51	College of Charleston	Old Dominion University	69%
1	52	Tulane University	Tufts University	54%
1	53	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	87%
1	54	Fordham University	Brown University	12%	upset
1	55	U. S. Naval Academy	Cornell University	82%
1	56	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Pennsylvania	49%	upset
1	57	Yale University	College of Charleston	86%
1	58	Harvard University	George Washington University	99%
1	59	Old Dominion University	Tufts University	38%	upset
1	60	Georgetown University	Tulane University	72%
1	61	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Fordham University	53%
1	62	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Pennsylvania	74%
1	63	Yale University	Cornell University	95%
1	64	Brown University	SUNY Maritime College	99%
1	65	St. Mary's College of Maryland	College of Charleston	44%	upset
1	66	Harvard University	Tufts University	95%
1	67	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	George Washington University	69%
1	68	Old Dominion University	Tulane University	41%	upset
1	69	Georgetown University	Yale University	25%	upset
1	70	Brown University	Cornell University	93%
1	71	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	87%
1	72	University of Pennsylvania	SUNY Maritime College	97%
1	73	College of Charleston	Tufts University	56%
1	74	Tulane University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	70%
1	75	Yale University	Old Dominion University	91%
1	76	Harvard University	Brown University	69%
1	77	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Georgetown University	23%	upset
1	78	SUNY Maritime College	Fordham University	10%	upset
1	79	University of Pennsylvania	Cornell University	70%
1	80	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	93%
1	81	Tufts University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	66%
1	82	Tulane University	College of Charleston	38%	upset
1	83	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	56%
1	84	Georgetown University	Fordham University	87%
1	85	Harvard University	University of Pennsylvania	92%
1	86	Brown University	U. S. Naval Academy	68%
1	87	George Washington University	SUNY Maritime College	83%
1	88	Yale University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	95%
1	89	Cornell University	Tulane University	36%	upset
1	90	Georgetown University	Tufts University	77%
1	91	College of Charleston	Fordham University	74%
1	92	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	80%
1	93	Brown University	Old Dominion University	91%
1	94	Harvard University	Yale University	66%
1	95	Cornell University	George Washington University	72%
1	96	Tulane University	SUNY Maritime College	96%
1	97	University of Pennsylvania	College of Charleston	58%
1	98	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	65%
1	99	Old Dominion University	Fordham University	62%
1	100	Yale University	U. S. Naval Academy	76%
1	101	Brown University	Georgetown University	72%
1	102	Tufts University	SUNY Maritime College	95%
1	103	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Cornell University	59%
1	104	Harvard University	Tulane University	94%
1	105	Old Dominion University	George Washington University	76%
1	106	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Pennsylvania	21%	upset
1	107	Brown University	College of Charleston	86%
1	108	U. S. Naval Academy	Tufts University	80%
1	109	St. Mary's College of Maryland	SUNY Maritime College	95%
1	110	Harvard University	Fordham University	96%
1	111	Georgetown University	George Washington University	93%
1	112	Old Dominion University	University of Pennsylvania	38%	upset
1	113	Brown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	93%
1	114	Cornell University	Tufts University	40%	upset
1	115	Yale University	SUNY Maritime College	100%
1	116	U. S. Naval Academy	Tulane University	77%
1	117	Harvard University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	95%
1	118	College of Charleston	George Washington University	84%
1	119	Georgetown University	University of Pennsylvania	77%
1	120	Fordham University	Cornell University	42%	upset
1	121	Yale University	Brown University	54%
1	122	Harvard University	Georgetown University	85%
1	123	Yale University	Georgetown University	75%
1	124	Brown University	Harvard University	31%	upset
1	125	Brown University	Georgetown University	72%
1	126	Harvard University	Yale University	66%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Crimson	Bulldogs	Bears	Hoyas	Seahawks	Midshipmen	Cougars	Red	Monarchs	Wave	Jumbos	Statesmen	Quakers	Rams	Revolutionaries	Privateers
Harvard University Crimson	17–1	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	15–3	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	14–4	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	L	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	12–6	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	11–4	L	L	L	W	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	10–5	L	L	L	L	W	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	8–7	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	L	W	W	L	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	6–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	L	L	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	6–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
Tulane University Green Wave	6–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	L	W
Tufts University Jumbos	5–10	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	5–10	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	5–10	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	W	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Fordham University Rams	3–12	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L
George Washington University Revolutionaries	2–13	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	✕	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	1–14	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
2	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
3	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
4	Revolutionaries	2-3-4	def.	Green Wave	1-5-6
5	Hoyas	1-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	2-5-6
6	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
7	Big Red	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
8	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
9	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
10	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
11	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
12	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Revolutionaries	3-4-6
13	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
14	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
15	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
16	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
17	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
18	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Revolutionaries	4-5-6
19	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
20	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
21	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
22	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
23	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
24	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
25	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
26	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Quakers	1-5-6
27	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
28	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Revolutionaries	2-5-6
29	Statesmen	1-3-6	def.	Monarchs	2-4-5
30	Green Wave	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
31	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
32	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
33	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
34	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Revolutionaries	4-5-6
35	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
36	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
37	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
38	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
39	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
40	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
41	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
42	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Revolutionaries	3-4-6
43	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
44	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
45	Big Red	1-3-5	def.	Monarchs	2-4-6
46	Green Wave	2-3-4	def.	Quakers	1-5-6
47	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
48	Bulldogs	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
49	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
50	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Revolutionaries	4-5-6
51	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
52	Green Wave	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
53	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
54	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
55	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
56	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
57	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
58	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Revolutionaries	4-5-6
59	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
60	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Green Wave	3-4-5
61	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
62	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
63	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
64	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
65	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
66	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
67	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Revolutionaries	3-4-6
68	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
69	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
70	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
71	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
72	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
73	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
74	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
75	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Monarchs	2-5-6
76	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
77	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
78	Privateers	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
79	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
80	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Revolutionaries	3-4-5
81	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
82	Green Wave	1-3-4	def.	Cougars	2-5-6
83	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
84	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
85	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
86	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	2-5-6
87	Revolutionaries	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
88	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
89	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
90	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
91	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
92	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
93	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
94	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
95	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Revolutionaries	3-5-6
96	Green Wave	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
97	Quakers	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6
98	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
99	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
100	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
101	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Hoyas	2-3-6
102	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
103	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
104	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
105	Monarchs	1-2-6	def.	Revolutionaries	3-4-5
106	Statesmen	2-3-4	def.	Quakers	1-5-6
107	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
108	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
109	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
110	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
111	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Revolutionaries	3-4-5
112	Monarchs	2-3-4	def.	Quakers	1-5-6
113	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
114	Big Red	1-3-5	def.	Jumbos	2-4-6
115	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
116	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
117	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
118	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Revolutionaries	3-4-6
119	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
120	Rams	1-3-5	def.	Big Red	2-4-6
121	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
122	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
123	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
124	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
125	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
126	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	1-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Harvard University	Crimson	Justin Callahan '26 Lachlain Mcgranahan '24 Mitchell Callahan '26 Robby Meek '27	Kennedy Leehealey '26 Marbella Marlo '24 Alexandra Dorofeev '25
Yale University	Bulldogs	Jack Egan '25 Morgan Pinckney '27 Stephan Baker '26 Teddy Nicolosi '24	Elle Sykes '27 Carmen Berg '26 Nathan Sih '25 Jessi Avila-Shah '25 Ashley Highland '27
Brown University	Bears	Cam Spriggs '27 Connor Nelson '24 Guthrie Braun '26 Liam O'Keefe '26	Savannah Young '25 Caroline Keeffe-Jones '26 Vera Allen '27 Emily Mueller '25
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Diego Escobar '25 Enzo Menditto '26 Mariner Fagan '24 Mateo Di Blasi '25	Caro Gaston '25 Spencer Kriegstein '25 Emily Panarella '24 Addi Harris '24
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Charlie Anderson '25 Madison Bashaw '24 Owen Hennessey '25	Katherine Shermock '24 Rachel O'Neill '24 Raam Fox '26 Zoe Hoctor '25
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Eva Blauvelt '25 Henry Allgeier '27 Jack Welburn '26 Nathan Smith '26	Ryan Wahba '25 Madeline Smith '24 Ellie Alex '26 Darby Graham '26
College of Charleston	Cougars	Axel Stordahl '24 Benjamin Dufour '26 Brandon Geller '23 Noah Zittrer '26	Andrea Melnik '27 Noelle Owen '24 Lucy Klempen '24
Cornell University	Big Red	Bridget Green '25 Lauren Ehnot '24 Sophia Devling '26 Winborne Majette '27	Sophia Mulvania '26 Sophia Pearce '26 Kate Moran '27 Amelia Neumann '25
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Diogo Silva '26 Noyl Odom '24 Parker Purrington '24	Ethan Tutt '24 Cadence Goodnight '26 Parker Younger '24 Asianna Acosta '26
Tulane University	Green Wave	Hamilton Barclay '27 Kelly Holthus '27 Zander King '25	Cj Ricci '25 Gillian Perrell '24 Abigail Borggaard '24 Alex Makoid '25
Tufts University	Jumbos	Ben Mueller '26 Trevor Davis '24 Wyatt Bischoff '27	Henry Tindall '25 William Eykyn '25 Celia Byrne '24 Cindy Wang '25
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Jj Klempen '27 Juan Carlos Lacerda Jones '26 Will Murray '24	Anna Mcbride '24 Rachel Duggan '25 Frances Depke '25
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	Benjamin Honig '26 Cole Woodworth '26 Jackson Mcaliley '27 Jordan Bruce '24 Madeleine Rice '24 Torrey Chisari '24	Caroline Dannacher '25 Kiki Bruzzi '25 Joshua Zeelander '24 Shaanti Choi-Bose '24 Anna Hoffman '26
Fordham University	Rams	Beckett Kumler '24 Connor Bennett '26 Jacob Zils '27 Peter Lobaugh '24	Rebecca Keller '25 Ava Brimicombe '25 Bella Rabeni '24 Kristen Healy '24
George Washington University	Revolutionaries	Jedidiah Bechtel '26 Oscar Macgillivray '24 Tyler Wood '26	Andre Bochat '27 Ian Milko '26 Sam Schuhwerk '27 Avery Slayton '27
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	Ben Hosford '25 Brooks Turcotte '26 Spencer Barnes '24	Nicholas Cunha '27 Eva Leggett '24 Marcus Adam '23

Conditions — 03/16/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 52% · Pressure 1011.9 hPa

Temperature

55°F

↑ 61°F ↓ 44°F

Feels like 51°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

3.9 kn

avg · max 6.5 kn

Gusts to 14.4 kn

From SW (232°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover1% Sunshine10.7 hrs Humidity52% Pressure1011.9 hPa

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: a typical day (−0.01)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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