| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | 9–0 |
| 2 |  |
University of Pennsylvania | Quakers | 7–2 |
| 3 |  |
Roger Williams University | Hawks | 5–4 |
| 4 |  |
Fordham University | Rams | 3–6 |
| 5 |  |
U. S. Coast Guard Academy | Bears | 3–5 |
| 6 |  |
Cornell University | Big Red | 2–6 |
| 7 |  |
SUNY Maritime College | Privateers | 1–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 23,158 team race matches sailed before 2024-03-23, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 24 of 30 matches (80%) with a log-loss of 0.386 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.59 ± 0.38: an orderly event, more orderly than 96% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 9.72 | 12.72 | 9–0 | 6.3 | ≥+3.00 | 4.7 | 3% |
| 2 | University of Pennsylvania | 9.50 | 10.23 | 7–2 | 5.9 | +0.73 | 0.6 | 32% |
| 5 | U. S. Coast Guard Academy | 7.37 | 7.51 | 3–5 | 2.8 | +0.14 | 0.0 | 59% |
| 7 | SUNY Maritime College | 6.55 | 6.06 | 1–7 | 1.5 | −0.49 | 0.2 | 82% |
| 4 | Fordham University | 8.54 | 7.92 | 3–6 | 3.9 | −0.62 | 0.4 | 88% |
| 3 | Roger Williams University | 9.71 | 8.88 | 5–4 | 6.5 | −0.84 | 0.9 | 94% |
| 6 | Cornell University | 7.52 | 6.65 | 2–6 | 3.1 | −0.87 | 0.7 | 92% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Anderson | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 2.77 | 5.78 | 9–0 | 6.3 | ≥+3.00 | 4.7 | 3% |
| Benjamin Honig | University of Pennsylvania | 2.74 | 3.42 | 6–2 | 5.0 | +0.67 | 0.5 | 36% |
| Peter Mcgonagle | U. S. Coast Guard Academy | 2.24 | 2.71 | 3–2 | 2.5 | +0.47 | 0.2 | 50% |
| Bradley Whiteway | U. S. Coast Guard Academy | 2.36 | 2.82 | 2–3 | 1.7 | +0.46 | 0.1 | 58% |
| Jack Derry | U. S. Coast Guard Academy | 2.47 | 2.61 | 3–5 | 2.8 | +0.14 | 0.0 | 59% |
| Ben Hosford | SUNY Maritime College | 1.75 | 1.26 | 1–7 | 1.5 | −0.49 | 0.2 | 82% |
| Luke Zylinski | U. S. Coast Guard Academy | 2.56 | 2.03 | 1–5 | 1.4 | −0.53 | 0.2 | 83% |
| Drew Mastovsky | Roger Williams University | 2.99 | 0.75 | 1–4 | 3.1 | −2.24 | 3.2 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Seahawks | Quakers | Hawks | Rams | Bears | Red | Privateers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 6–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| University of Pennsylvania Quakers | 5–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 4–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Fordham University Rams | 3–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 2–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Cornell University Big Red | 0–6 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | L |
| SUNY Maritime College Privateers | 1–5 | L | L | L | L | L | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Bears | Red | Privateers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 1–1 | ✕ | L | W |
| Cornell University Big Red | 2–0 | W | ✕ | W |
| SUNY Maritime College Privateers | 0–2 | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Seahawks | Quakers | Hawks | Rams | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| University of Pennsylvania Quakers | 2–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Fordham University Rams | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Quakers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Hawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Privateers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Big Red | 2-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Quakers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Rams | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 1-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Quakers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Hawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Privateers | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Seahawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Quakers | 1-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Bears | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Big Red | 1-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Hawks | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Rams | 2-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Quakers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Privateers | 2-3-6 |
| 18 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Hawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Big Red | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Quakers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Privateers | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Big Red | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Big Red | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Privateers | 2-3-6 |
| 22 | |
Quakers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Quakers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Hawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
