The John Quinn

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 George Washington University George Washington University Revolutionaries 9 19 28
2 Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 26 9 35
3 Washington College Washington College Shoremen 22 47 69
4 University of Delaware University of Delaware Blue Hens 39 33 72
5 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 44 42 86
6 Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 49 MRP 58 MRP 107 MRP
7 Monmouth University Monmouth University Hawks 58 53 111
8 Rutgers University Rutgers University Scarlet Knights 61 67 MRP 128 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
George Washington University George Washington University Revolutionaries 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 9 Tryg Van Wyk '26 [1-4]
Sam Schuhwerk '27 [5-8]
Ella Adelman '26 [1-4]
Washington College Washington College Shoremen 4 4 3 2 3 2 2 2 22 Austin Latimer '27 [1-6]
Imogene Nuss '28 [7-8]
Imogene Nuss '28 [1-6]
Austin Latimer '27 [7-8]
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 3 2 4 3 1 3 7 3 26 Advik Eswaran '27
Ana Bucevic '27
University of Delaware University of Delaware Blue Hens 6 5 6 4 4 4 5 5 39 Ethan Deutsch '25
Ian Kaplan '25
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 5 6 5 6 6 6 4 6 44 Griffin Jones '28 [1-4]
Matthew Mccarvill '28 [5-8]
Burton Keck '27 [1-4]
Daniel Lee '28 [5-8]
Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 2 3 2 5 5 5 3 4 49 MRP Julia Gordon '27
Bobby Stevens '25
Monmouth University Monmouth University Hawks 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 8 58 Cheyenne Fair '25
Kathryn Marshall '25
Rutgers University Rutgers University Scarlet Knights 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 61 Marlon Wool '26 [1-4]
Vaughn Lynch '27 [5-8]
Corbin Brito '26 [1-4]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 9 Nicholas Lorenzen '27
Ellen Toberman '25
George Washington University George Washington University Revolutionaries 3 2 2 3 2 4 2 1 19 Colin Bohula '25 [1-6]
Ian Milko '26 [7-8]
Caitlyn Schwartz '28 [1-6]
University of Delaware University of Delaware Blue Hens 5 4 3 2 4 3 6 6 33 Seton Dill '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Brendan Van Riper '27 [3-4, 7-8]
Mia Graziano '27 [1-2, 5-6]
John Fulkerson '26 [3-4, 7-8]
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2 8 4 4 6 7 7 4 42 Finnegan Mccue '28
Elliott Chamberland '27
Washington College Washington College Shoremen 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 7 47 Matthew Nadolny '27
Hunter Ward '25
Monmouth University Monmouth University Hawks 6 5 8 8 7 8 8 3 53 Julia Marich '28
Joseph Arrigo '25
Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 8 3 5 5 3 2 4 8 58 MRP Emily Amspacher '26
Hobie James '25
Rutgers University Rutgers University Scarlet Knights 4 7 7 7 8 6 3 5 67 MRP Karolina Debniak '26
Nathan Haase '27
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
University of DelawareUniversity of Delaware Blue Hens66882244
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Revolutionaries11335577
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners55771133
Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University Hawks22446688
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers33557711
Rutgers UniversityRutgers University Scarlet Knights44668822
Villanova UniversityVillanova University Wildcats77113355
Washington CollegeWashington College Shoremen88224466

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
University of DelawareUniversity of Delaware Blue Hens77113355
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Revolutionaries22446688
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners66882244
Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University Hawks33557711
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers44668822
Rutgers UniversityRutgers University Scarlet Knights55771133
Villanova UniversityVillanova University Wildcats88224466
Washington CollegeWashington College Shoremen11335577

Conditions — 09/14/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 64%  ·  Pressure 1024.2 hPa

Temperature

75°F
↑ 79°F   ↓ 65°F
Feels like 78°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.6 kn
avg  ·  max 5.8 kn
Gusts to 15.0 kn
From ENE (62°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover3% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity64% Pressure1024.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Monmouth: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.15 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.15
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.49 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Monmouth by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 12 labelled days at Monmouth, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →