Princeton Fall Open

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 20 14 34
2 Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 14 21 35
3 Washington College Washington College Shoremen 29 16 45
4 University of Delaware University of Delaware Blue Hens 38 29 67
5 Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 52 MRP 38 90 MRP
6 Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 45 MRP 49 MRP 94 MRP
7 Scarlet Knights Scarlet Knights Scarlet Knights 58 MRP 62 MRP 120 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 3 2 1 1 1 4 2 14 Aidan Gurskis '28
Jonathan Walerys '27
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 2 3 3 4 3 2 3 20 Nicholas Lorenzen '27
Hali Liu '25
Washington College Washington College Shoremen 4 4 2 3 7 3 6 29 Joseph Bonacci '25 [1-3]
Austin Latimer '27 [4-6]
Hunter Ward '25 [7]
Dru Schimke-Goetz '28 [1-3]
University of Delaware University of Delaware Blue Hens 6 6 7 2 5 5 7 38 Olivia Coffill '28 [1-7]
Brian Polak '27 [1, 3, 5, 7]
Tyler Needham '27 [2, 4, 6]
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 1 7 4 5 6 1 1 45 MRP Alexa Whitman '26 [1-7]
Melissa Young '26 [1-3, 7]
Gabriella Maldonado '25 [4-6]
Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 5 1 5 7 4 6 4 52 MRP Emily Amspacher '26 [1-3, 7]
Ella Kilgore '25 [4-6]
Amelka Cichy '28 [1-3]
Bobby Stevens '25 [4-6]
Tung Tran '28 [7]
Scarlet Knights Scarlet Knights Scarlet Knights 7 5 6 6 2 7 5 58 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 1 4 BKD 1 1 1 4 14 Sebastien Nordenson '27
Jeremiah Romagnoli '26
Washington College Washington College Shoremen 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 16 Imogene Nuss '28 [1-7]
Nora Ciak '27 [1-3]
Ethan Rower '28 [4-7]
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 3 BKD 2 4 5 3 1 21 Nathaniel Adams '26 [1-3]
Alexander Pfeffer '28 [4-7]
Alexander Pfeffer '28 [1-3]
Abbey Merrigan '28 [4-7]
University of Delaware University of Delaware Blue Hens 5 3 4 2 6 6 3 29 Anna Servidio '26
John Fulkerson '26
Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 6 6 5 5 3 7 6 38 Julia Priebke '25 [1-7]
Maeve Murray '28 [1-3]
Amelka Cichy '28 [4-7]
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 4 1 1 7 4 5 7 49 MRP Alice Kilkelly '26 [1-7]
Madalyn Norton '26 [1-3]
Maria Osorio '28 [4-7]
Scarlet Knights Scarlet Knights Scarlet Knights 7 7 6 6 7 4 5 62 MRP
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2013 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
University of DelawareUniversity of Delaware Blue Hens5557772
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons1113335
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers2224446
Scarlet KnightsScarlet Knights Scarlet Knights3335557
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange4446661
Villanova UniversityVillanova University Wildcats6661113
Washington CollegeWashington College Shoremen7772224

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
University of DelawareUniversity of Delaware Blue Hens6661113
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons2224446
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers3335557
Scarlet KnightsScarlet Knights Scarlet Knights4446661
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange5557772
Villanova UniversityVillanova University Wildcats7772224
Washington CollegeWashington College Shoremen1113335
School / Team SkipperCrew
Drexel University Drexel University Aidan Gurskis '28 Jonathan Walerys '27
Dragons Nathaniel Adams '26 [1-3]
Alexander Pfeffer '28 [4-7]
Alexander Pfeffer '28 [1-3]
Abbey Merrigan '28 [4-7]
Princeton University Princeton University Nicholas Lorenzen '27 Hali Liu '25
Tigers Sebastien Nordenson '27 Jeremiah Romagnoli '26
Syracuse University Syracuse University Alexa Whitman '26 [1-7] Melissa Young '26 [1-3, 7]
Gabriella Maldonado '25 [4-6]
Orange Alice Kilkelly '26 [1-7] Madalyn Norton '26 [1-3]
Maria Osorio '28 [4-7]
University of Delaware University of Delaware Olivia Coffill '28 [1-7] Brian Polak '27 [1, 3, 5, 7]
Tyler Needham '27 [2, 4, 6]
Blue Hens Anna Servidio '26 John Fulkerson '26
Villanova University Villanova University Emily Amspacher '26 [1-3, 7]
Ella Kilgore '25 [4-6]
Amelka Cichy '28 [1-3]
Bobby Stevens '25 [4-6]
Tung Tran '28 [7]
Wildcats Julia Priebke '25 [1-7] Maeve Murray '28 [1-3]
Amelka Cichy '28 [4-7]
Washington College Washington College Joseph Bonacci '25 [1-3]
Austin Latimer '27 [4-6]
Hunter Ward '25 [7]
Dru Schimke-Goetz '28 [1-3]
Shoremen Imogene Nuss '28 [1-7] Nora Ciak '27 [1-3]
Ethan Rower '28 [4-7]

Conditions — 10/05/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 55%  ·  Pressure 1020.8 hPa

Temperature

70°F
↑ 76°F   ↓ 60°F
Feels like 69°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.4 kn
avg  ·  max 6.6 kn
Gusts to 16.1 kn
From N (359°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover5% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity55% Pressure1020.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 8 kn · S 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Princeton: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.05
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.39 ± 0.23)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Princeton by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 5 labelled days at Princeton, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →