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Tom Curtis Memorial Regatta

Analysis
# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 4 8 8
2 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3 17 17
3 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 4 20 20
4 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 1 21 21
5 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 10 21 21
6 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 25 25
7 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 9 25 25
8 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 2 30 30
9 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 5 34 34
10 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 8 35 35
11 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 37 37
12 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 5 49 49
13 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 3 51 51
14 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 7 55 55
15 American University American University Eagles 2 60 60
16 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 6 63 63
17 American University American University Eagles 1 63 63
18 American University American University Eagles 3 66 66
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 4 1 1 4 2 8 Owen Kohut '29
Irene Lin '29
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3 8 3 3 3 17 Sean Trudell '28
Melania Gonzalez '28
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 4 2 9 8 1 20 Hugh Carty '27
Ethan Martin '29
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 1 3 7 2 9 21 Oscar Parzen '30
Leyla Amjad '30
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 10 6 2 1 12 21 Alex Baker '30
Abigail Chang '28
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 7 6 5 7 25 Umi Noritake '28 [1-4]
Mary Dwyer '27 [1, 3]
Molly Jethwa '28 [2, 4]
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 9 10 5 6 4 25 Conrad Cook '29
Lauren Montgomery '29
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 2 5 4 11 10 30 Maddie Rode '30
Alex Baker '30
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 5 4 12 7 11 34 Josephine Sherry '27
Darby Dryden '27
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 8 9 10 10 6 35 Jack Duffy '27
Audrey Smith '30
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 12 8 9 8 37 Teddy Martin '27
Jessica Green '29
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 5 11 11 14 13 49 James Rizek '28
India Harris '29
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 3 16 18 12 5 51 Isabel Massey '27
Clare Daniels '29
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 7 14 13 13 15 55 Ajai Singh '29
Lucy Fleckenstein '30
American University American University Eagles 2 BKD BKD 16 14 60 Miles White '29
Keira Cowher '29
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 6 13 15 17 18 63 Poshu Ng '27 [1-2]
Daya Singh '30 [3-4]
Skye Seymour '30 [1-2]
Kinsleigh Engler '30 [3-4]
American University American University Eagles 1 15 14 18 16 63 Hannah Arey '27 [1-2]
Alex Wicklund '27 [3-4]
Katherine Anderson '27 [1-2]
Claire Gover '27 [3-4]
American University American University Eagles 3 17 17 15 17 66 Mei-Elisabeth Berbine '30
James Cottage '27
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (21 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
American UniversityAmerican University Eagles 11111
American UniversityAmerican University Eagles 22222
American UniversityAmerican University Eagles 33333
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 14444
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 1013131313
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 25555
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 36666
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 47777
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 58888
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 69999
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 710101010
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 811111111
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 912121212
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 114141414
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 215151515
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 316161616
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 417171717
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 518181818

Conditions — 10/23/2026 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 51%  ·  Pressure 1027.3 hPa

Temperature

60°F
↑ 64°F   ↓ 49°F
Feels like 55°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.4 kn
avg  ·  max 7.4 kn
Gusts to 15.0 kn
From NE (41°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover29% Sunshine8.8 hrs Humidity51% Pressure1027.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: no wind record for this regatta; the venue average is used
In this breeze at Georgetown: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment −0.07 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.08
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.07 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Georgetown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (27 labelled days at Georgetown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →