Yale Women's Team Race

HostYale
Date04/05/2025
TypeCross Regional
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Yale University	Bulldogs	9–1
2	Brown University	Bears	7–3
2	Harvard University	Crimson	7–3
4	Dartmouth College	Big Green	4–6
5	Roger Williams University	Hawks	4–3
6	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	1–6
7	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	1–6
8	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	1–6

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 27,096 team race matches sailed before 2025-04-05, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 30 of 35 matches (86%) with a log-loss of 0.379 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.31 ± 0.32: a typical event, more orderly than 77% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Yale University Bulldogs	1	11.51 school +0.29, home +0.35	Dorothy Mendelblatt / Ximena Escobar 3.25 Carmen Cowles / Julia Miller 3.70 Emma Cowles / Jessi Avila-Shah 3.90 5–1 Emma Cowles / Carmen Berg 3.90 4–0	91%	9–1 (90%)	−0.1
2	Brown University Bears	2	10.24 school +0.38	Laura Hamilton / Kaitlyn Hamilton 3.26 4–2 Katharine Doble / Francesca Edmands 3.34 4–2 Katherine Mcnamara / Savannah Young 3.25 4–2 Laura Hamilton / Francesca Edmands 3.35 3–1 Katharine Doble / Savannah Young 3.35 3–1 Katherine Mcnamara / Katherine Majette 3.16 3–1	70%	7–3 (70%)	−0.0
2	Harvard University Crimson	3	9.55 school +0.29	Cordelia Burn / Sophia Montgomery 3.36 Zoey Ziskind / Peyton Hadfield 3.11 Kate Danielson / Amelie Zucker 2.77	57%	7–3 (70%)	+1.3
4	Dartmouth College Big Green	4	8.79 school +0.29	Bella Casaretto / Faye Benjamin 3.25 Olivia Drulard / Sudi Zhao 2.83 Charlotte West / Sophie Menyhart 2.39	41%	5–6 (45%)	+0.4
5	Roger Williams University Hawks	5	8.35 school +0.42	Lucy Meagher / Maren Matthews 3.13 Tavia Smith / Jancy Grayson 2.59 Katherine Mcgagh / Elyssa Franklin 2.18	40%	4–4 (50%)	+0.8
6	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	7	7.52 school +0.23	Eva Blauvelt / Maggie Schuler 3.25 1–5 Ava Farley / Josephine Sherry 2.42 1–5 Kate Zurinskas / Darby Dryden 1.66 1–5 Eva Blauvelt / Sarah Mcnelly 3.04 0–1 Ava Farley / Eva Ottenbreit 2.34 0–1 Kate Zurinskas / Josephine Sherry 1.63 0–1	24%	1–6 (14%)	−0.7
7	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	6	8.25	Lauren Russler / Kaile Olson 2.94 Kyra Phelan / Maizie Bartlett 2.74 Rebecca Schill / Luisa Louchheim 2.53 1–4 Rebecca Schill / Posie Cabaniss 2.50 0–2	37%	1–6 (14%)	−1.6
8	Old Dominion University Monarchs	8	7.22 school +0.31	Gianna Dewey / Morgan Auth 2.53 Olivia Gilmore / Allison Volk 1.76 1–4 Marina Conde / Kristin Johnson 2.58 0–5 Marina Conde / Isabelle Kanach 2.76 1–1 Olivia Gilmore / Isabelle Kanach 1.71 0–2	18%	1–6 (14%)	−0.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	Harvard University	9.55	10.44	7–3	5.7	+0.89	0.9	25%
5	Roger Williams University	8.35	8.92	4–4	3.2	+0.57	0.3	38%
4	Dartmouth College	8.79	9.02	5–6	4.6	+0.23	0.1	52%
2	Brown University	10.24	10.22	7–3	7.0	−0.03	0.0	69%
1	Yale University	11.51	11.41	9–1	9.1	−0.10	0.0	77%
8	Old Dominion University	7.22	6.91	1–6	1.3	−0.31	0.1	77%
6	U. S. Naval Academy	7.52	6.77	1–6	1.7	−0.75	0.3	88%
7	Bowdoin College	8.25	6.70	1–6	2.6	−1.55	1.6	98%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Cordelia Burn	Harvard University	3.36	4.25	7–3	5.7	+0.89	0.9	25%
Lucy Meagher	Roger Williams University	3.13	3.70	4–4	3.2	+0.57	0.3	38%
Katherine Mcgagh	Roger Williams University	2.18	2.75	4–4	3.2	+0.57	0.3	38%
Bella Casaretto	Dartmouth College	3.25	3.48	5–6	4.6	+0.23	0.1	52%
Carmen Cowles	Yale University	3.70	3.60	9–1	9.1	−0.10	0.0	77%
Emma Cowles	Yale University	3.90	3.81	9–1	9.1	−0.10	0.0	77%
Marina Conde	Old Dominion University	2.58	2.26	1–6	1.3	−0.31	0.1	77%
Eva Blauvelt	U. S. Naval Academy	3.25	2.50	1–6	1.7	−0.75	0.3	88%
Ava Farley	U. S. Naval Academy	2.42	1.68	1–6	1.7	−0.75	0.3	88%
Kate Zurinskas	U. S. Naval Academy	1.66	0.91	1–6	1.7	−0.75	0.3	88%
Lauren Russler	Bowdoin College	2.94	1.39	1–6	2.6	−1.55	1.6	98%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Harvard University	U. S. Naval Academy	91%
1	2	Yale University	Bowdoin College	96%
1	3	Dartmouth College	Old Dominion University	80%
1	4	Brown University	Roger Williams University	87%
1	5	Old Dominion University	Bowdoin College	29%	upset
1	6	Yale University	Dartmouth College	94%
1	7	Brown University	Harvard University	67%
1	8	Yale University	U. S. Naval Academy	98%
1	9	Roger Williams University	Dartmouth College	39%	upset
1	10	Harvard University	Bowdoin College	78%
1	11	Brown University	U. S. Naval Academy	94%
1	12	Roger Williams University	Old Dominion University	76%
1	13	Bowdoin College	U. S. Naval Academy	67%
1	14	Harvard University	Dartmouth College	68%
1	15	Yale University	Old Dominion University	99%
1	16	Dartmouth College	Bowdoin College	63%
1	17	Brown University	Old Dominion University	95%
1	18	Yale University	Roger Williams University	96%
1	19	Dartmouth College	Brown University	19%	upset
1	20	Yale University	Harvard University	88%
1	21	Roger Williams University	U. S. Naval Academy	69%
1	22	Brown University	Yale University	22%	upset
1	23	Roger Williams University	Bowdoin College	53%
1	24	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	61%
1	25	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	77%
1	26	Dartmouth College	U. S. Naval Academy	77%
1	27	Brown University	Bowdoin College	88%
1	28	Harvard University	Old Dominion University	92%
1	29	Dartmouth College	Roger Williams University	61%
4	30	Yale University	Harvard University	88%
4	31	Brown University	Dartmouth College	81%
4	32	Yale University	Dartmouth College	94%
4	33	Harvard University	Brown University	33%	upset
4	34	Harvard University	Dartmouth College	68%
4	35	Yale University	Brown University	78%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Bears	Crimson	Green	Hawks	Midshipmen	Bears	Monarchs
Yale University Bulldogs	6–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	6–1	W	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	5–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	5–3	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	4–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	L
Old Dominion University Monarchs	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Bears	Crimson	Green
Yale University Bulldogs	3–0	✕	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	1–2	L	✕	L	W
Harvard University Crimson	2–1	L	W	✕	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	0–3	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
2	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
3	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
4	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
5	Monarchs	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
6	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
7	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Crimson	2-4-6
8	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
9	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Big Green	2-4-6
10	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
11	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
12	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
13	Polar Bears	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
14	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
15	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
16	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
17	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
18	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
19	Big Green	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6
20	Bulldogs	1-3-5	def.	Crimson	2-4-6
21	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
22	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-3-6
23	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
24	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
25	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
26	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
27	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Polar Bears	2-4-6
28	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
29	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
30	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
31	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
32	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
33	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
34	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
35	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Yale University	Bulldogs	Carmen Cowles '25 Dorothy Mendelblatt '28 Emma Cowles '25	Julia Miller '26 Ximena Escobar '25 Carmen Berg '26 Jessi Avila-Shah '25
Brown University	Bears	Katharine Doble '26 Katherine Mcnamara '26 Laura Hamilton '27	Savannah Young '25 Francesca Edmands '25 Katherine Majette '27 Kaitlyn Hamilton '26
Harvard University	Crimson	Cordelia Burn '25 Kate Danielson '28 Zoey Ziskind '27	Sophia Montgomery '25 Amelie Zucker '28 Peyton Hadfield '27
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Bella Casaretto '26 Charlotte West '28 Olivia Drulard '27	Faye Benjamin '25 Sophie Menyhart '27 Sudi Zhao '26
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Katherine Mcgagh '26 Lucy Meagher '27 Tavia Smith '27	Elyssa Franklin '26 Maren Matthews '26 Jancy Grayson '28
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Ava Farley '26 Eva Blauvelt '25 Kate Zurinskas '27	Eva Ottenbreit '27 Josephine Sherry '27 Sarah Mcnelly '28 Maggie Schuler '25 Darby Dryden '27
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Kyra Phelan '26 Lauren Russler '26 Rebecca Schill '27	Maizie Bartlett '27 Kaile Olson '27 Luisa Louchheim '25 Posie Cabaniss '27
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Gianna Dewey '27 Marina Conde '28 Olivia Gilmore '27	Morgan Auth '27 Kristin Johnson '26 Isabelle Kanach '25 Allison Volk '25

Conditions — 04/05/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 74% · Pressure 1025.5 hPa

Temperature

45°F

↑ 47°F ↓ 42°F

Feels like 37°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

10.8 kn

avg · max 13.2 kn

Gusts to 28.4 kn

From ESE (111°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.1 hrs Humidity74% Pressure1025.5 hPa Rain0.26 in

What this breeze does at Yale — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Yale in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.14)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 12% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Yale by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (69 labelled fleet-race days at Yale).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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