| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Harvard University | Crimson | 14–2 |
| 2 |  |
College of Charleston | Cougars | 13–3 |
| 3 |  |
Tulane University | Green Wave | 5–11 |
| 4 |  |
U. S. Coast Guard Academy | Bears | 4–12 |
| 5 |  |
Old Dominion University | Monarchs | 4–12 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 28,966 team race matches sailed before 2026-03-14, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 31 of 40 matches (78%) with a log-loss of 0.464 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.02 ± 0.29: a typical event, more orderly than 44% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harvard University Crimson | 1 | 9.67 school +0.26 | Zoey Ziskind / Amelie Zucker 3.47 Kate Danielson / Jj Drummond 3.18 Sophia Montgomery / Katherine Shin 2.73 | 87% | 14–2 (88%) | +0.1 |
| 2 | College of Charleston Cougars | 2 | 8.69 school +0.40 | Ashley Alfortish / Lucy Zinn 2.80 Bella Shakespeare / Lucy Elvart 3.13 Georgia Shuster / Gaelen Adam 2.33 | 67% | 13–3 (81%) | +2.3 |
| 3 | Tulane University Green Wave | 5 | 6.61 | Ashley Hoguet / Megan Cassidy 2.45 Sophia Dias / Caitlin Briggs Eliza Corral / Skye Terrell | 18% | 5–11 (31%) | +2.1 |
| 4 | U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 4 | 7.31 school +0.09 | Julia Conneely / Olivia Spada 2.86 Meara Conley / Allison Nystrom 2.08 Madeline Murphy / Grace Boudreau | 33% | 4–12 (25%) | −1.3 |
| 5 | Old Dominion University Monarchs | 3 | 7.80 school +0.33 | Gianna Dewey / Petra Humphrey 2.34 Esther Ireland / Morgan Auth Marina Conde / Molly Hanson 2.78 | 45% | 4–12 (25%) | −3.2 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | College of Charleston | 8.69 | 9.71 | 13–3 | 10.7 | +1.01 | 1.6 | 13% |
| 3 | Tulane University | 6.61 | 7.41 | 5–11 | 2.9 | +0.80 | 1.3 | 14% |
| 1 | Harvard University | 9.67 | 9.75 | 14–2 | 13.9 | +0.08 | 0.0 | 64% |
| 4 | U. S. Coast Guard Academy | 7.31 | 6.80 | 4–12 | 5.3 | −0.51 | 0.5 | 87% |
| 5 | Old Dominion University | 7.80 | 6.65 | 4–12 | 7.2 | −1.15 | 2.6 | 99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Crimson | Cougars | Wave | Bears | Monarchs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harvard University Crimson | 3–1 | ✕ | W | W | W | L |
| College of Charleston Cougars | 3–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Tulane University Green Wave | 1–3 | L | L | ✕ | L | W |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 2–2 | L | L | W | ✕ | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 1–3 | W | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Crimson | Cougars | Wave | Bears | Monarchs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harvard University Crimson | 4–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| College of Charleston Cougars | 3–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Tulane University Green Wave | 0–4 | L | L | ✕ | L | L |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 2–2 | L | L | W | ✕ | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 1–3 | L | L | W | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Crimson | Cougars | Wave | Bears | Monarchs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harvard University Crimson | 3–1 | ✕ | L | W | W | W |
| College of Charleston Cougars | 4–0 | W | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Tulane University Green Wave | 2–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 0–4 | L | L | L | ✕ | L |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 1–3 | L | L | L | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Crimson | Cougars | Wave | Bears | Monarchs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harvard University Crimson | 4–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| College of Charleston Cougars | 3–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Tulane University Green Wave | 2–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 0–4 | L | L | L | ✕ | L |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 1–3 | L | L | L | W | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Crimson | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Green Wave | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Cougars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Crimson | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 2-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Green Wave | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Crimson | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Crimson | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Monarchs | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Cougars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Bears | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 2-3-6 |
| 11 | |
Crimson | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Green Wave | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Crimson | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Crimson | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Crimson | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Monarchs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Green Wave | 1-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Cougars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Crimson | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Cougars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-5 |
| 23 | |
Crimson | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Crimson | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Monarchs | 2-4-5 |
| 26 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Cougars | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Crimson | 1-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Green Wave | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Monarchs | 1-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Cougars | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Monarchs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Crimson | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Cougars | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 2-4-6 |
| 33 | |
Crimson | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-4-6 |
| 35 | |
Crimson | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 37 | |
Crimson | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 1-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Green Wave | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 1-4-6 |
| 39 | |
Cougars | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Monarchs | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Harvard University | Crimson | Kate Danielson '28 Sophia Montgomery '25 Zoey Ziskind '27 |
Jj Drummond '27 Katherine Shin '27 Amelie Zucker '28 |
|
College of Charleston | Cougars | Ashley Alfortish '27 Bella Shakespeare '27 Georgia Shuster '29 |
Lucy Zinn '28 Lucy Elvart '28 Gaelen Adam '29 |
|
Tulane University | Green Wave | Ashley Hoguet '26 Eliza Corral '29 Sophia Dias '29 |
Megan Cassidy '26 Skye Terrell '29 Caitlin Briggs '27 |
|
U. S. Coast Guard Academy | Bears | Julia Conneely '26 Madeline Murphy '29 Meara Conley '28 |
Olivia Spada '28 Grace Boudreau '29 Allison Nystrom '26 |
|
Old Dominion University | Monarchs | Esther Ireland '29 Gianna Dewey '27 Marina Conde '28 |
Morgan Auth '27 Petra Humphrey '29 Molly Hanson '27 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
