| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Stanford University | Cardinal | 15–0 |
| 2 |  |
College of Charleston | Cougars | 7–8 |
| 3 |  |
Tulane University | Green Wave | 5–10 |
| 4 |  |
Old Dominion University | Monarchs | 3–12 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 30,300 team race matches sailed before 2026-04-03, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 23 of 30 matches (77%) with a log-loss of 0.396 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.14 ± 0.32: a typical event, more orderly than 59% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stanford University Cardinal | 1 | 10.96 school +0.45 | Alice Schmid / Avery Baldwin 3.36 Ellie Harned / Kate Myles 3.56 Samara Walshe / Kit Harned 3.58 | 90% | 15–0 (100%) | +1.5 |
| 2 | College of Charleston Cougars | 3 | 9.04 school +0.47 | Bella Shakespeare / Paige Lubrano 3.12 Ashley Alfortish / Marina Dryer 2.96 Georgia Shuster / Lucy Elvart 2.46 | 48% | 7–8 (47%) | −0.1 |
| 3 | Tulane University Green Wave | 2 | 9.15 school +0.08, home +0.35 | Oakley Cunningham / Hope Breslin 2.64 Ava Anderson / Catherine Anderson 3.44 Gabriela Vassel / Caitlin Briggs 2.63 | 50% | 5–10 (33%) | −2.6 |
| 4 | Old Dominion University Monarchs | 4 | 7.46 school +0.23 | Arabella Duer / Morgan Auth 2.31 Gianna Dewey / Petra Humphrey 2.23 Marina Conde / Molly Hanson 2.67 | 12% | 3–12 (20%) | +1.2 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stanford University | 10.96 | 13.96 | 15–0 | 13.5 | ≥+3.00 | 2.2 | 20% |
| 4 | Old Dominion University | 7.46 | 8.11 | 3–12 | 1.8 | +0.65 | 0.6 | 26% |
| 2 | College of Charleston | 9.04 | 8.99 | 7–8 | 7.1 | −0.05 | 0.0 | 66% |
| 3 | Tulane University | 9.15 | 8.12 | 5–10 | 7.6 | −1.03 | 1.9 | 98% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alice Schmid | Stanford University | 3.36 | 6.36 | 15–0 | 13.5 | ≥+3.00 | 2.2 | 20% |
| Ellie Harned | Stanford University | 3.56 | 6.56 | 15–0 | 13.5 | ≥+3.00 | 2.2 | 20% |
| Samara Walshe | Stanford University | 3.58 | 6.58 | 15–0 | 13.5 | ≥+3.00 | 2.2 | 20% |
| Arabella Duer | Old Dominion University | 2.31 | 2.96 | 3–12 | 1.8 | +0.65 | 0.6 | 26% |
| Gianna Dewey | Old Dominion University | 2.23 | 2.88 | 3–12 | 1.8 | +0.65 | 0.6 | 26% |
| Marina Conde | Old Dominion University | 2.67 | 3.32 | 3–12 | 1.8 | +0.65 | 0.6 | 26% |
| Bella Shakespeare | College of Charleston | 3.12 | 3.07 | 7–8 | 7.1 | −0.05 | 0.0 | 66% |
| Ashley Alfortish | College of Charleston | 2.96 | 2.91 | 7–8 | 7.1 | −0.05 | 0.0 | 66% |
| Georgia Shuster | College of Charleston | 2.46 | 2.41 | 7–8 | 7.1 | −0.05 | 0.0 | 66% |
| Oakley Cunningham | Tulane University | 2.64 | 1.61 | 5–10 | 7.6 | −1.03 | 1.9 | 98% |
| Ava Anderson | Tulane University | 3.44 | 2.40 | 5–10 | 7.6 | −1.03 | 1.9 | 98% |
| Gabriela Vassel | Tulane University | 2.63 | 1.60 | 5–10 | 7.6 | −1.03 | 1.9 | 98% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Cardinal | Cougars | Wave | Monarchs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stanford University Cardinal | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| College of Charleston Cougars | 0–3 | L | ✕ | L | L |
| Tulane University Green Wave | 1–2 | L | W | ✕ | L |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 2–1 | L | W | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Cardinal | Cougars | Wave | Monarchs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stanford University Cardinal | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| College of Charleston Cougars | 1–2 | L | ✕ | W | L |
| Tulane University Green Wave | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 1–2 | L | W | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Cardinal | Cougars | Wave | Monarchs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stanford University Cardinal | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| College of Charleston Cougars | 2–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Tulane University Green Wave | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Cardinal | Cougars | Wave | Monarchs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stanford University Cardinal | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| College of Charleston Cougars | 2–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Tulane University Green Wave | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Cardinal | Cougars | Wave | Monarchs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stanford University Cardinal | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| College of Charleston Cougars | 2–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Tulane University Green Wave | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Monarchs | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Green Wave | 1-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Monarchs | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Cougars | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Green Wave | 1-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Cardinal | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Green Wave | 1-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Cardinal | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Green Wave | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 2-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Cardinal | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Green Wave | 1-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Cardinal | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Monarchs | 1-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Cougars | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Green Wave | 2-3-6 |
| 21 | |
Cougars | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Monarchs | 1-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Monarchs | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Cougars | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Green Wave | 2-3-6 |
| 27 | |
Cougars | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Monarchs | 1-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Cardinal | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Stanford University | Cardinal | Alice Schmid '27 Ellie Harned '26 Samara Walshe '29 |
Avery Baldwin '29 Kate Myles '29 Kit Harned '27 |
|
College of Charleston | Cougars | Ashley Alfortish '27 Bella Shakespeare '27 Georgia Shuster '29 |
Marina Dryer '26 Paige Lubrano '26 Lucy Elvart '28 |
|
Tulane University | Green Wave | Ava Anderson '27 Gabriela Vassel '28 Oakley Cunningham '27 |
Catherine Anderson '26 Caitlin Briggs '27 Hope Breslin '26 |
|
Old Dominion University | Monarchs | Arabella Duer '29 Gianna Dewey '27 Marina Conde '28 |
Morgan Auth '27 Petra Humphrey '29 Molly Hanson '27 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
