Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy

HostBrown
Date04/01/2023
TypeCross Regional
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Brown University	Bears	12–2
2	Yale University	Bulldogs	12–2
3	Tulane University	Green Wave	10–4
4	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	8–6
5	Stanford University	Cardinal	6–5
6	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	6–5
7	Harvard University	Crimson	6–5
8	Dartmouth College	Big Green	5–6
9	College of Charleston	Cougars	4–7
10	Boston College	Eagles	2–9
11	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	1–10
12	University of South Florida	Bulls	0–11

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 20,646 team race matches sailed before 2023-04-01, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 59 of 76 matches (78%) with a log-loss of 0.522 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.08 ± 0.22: a typical event, more orderly than 34% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Brown University Bears	3	9.72 school +0.23, home +0.41	Brielle Willoughby / Emilia Ruth 2.97 11–2 Blaire Mccarthy / Savannah Young 3.17 11–2 Caroline Bayless / Helen Horangic 2.92 11–2 Brielle Willoughby / Francesca Edmands 3.02 2–0 Blaire Mccarthy / Kaitlyn Hamilton 3.03 2–0 Caroline Bayless / Savannah Young 3.08 2–0	65%	13–2 (87%)	+3.2
2	Yale University Bulldogs	1	10.66 school +0.26	Emma Cowles / Helena Ware 3.33 9–3 Carmen Cowles / Carmen Berg 3.65 6–3 Mia Nicolosi / Ximena Escobar 3.41 7–0 Mia Nicolosi / Sarah Moeder 3.38 4–3 Carmen Cowles / Sarah Moeder 3.67 4–0 Emma Cowles / Carmen Berg 3.24 2–0 Carmen Cowles / Megan Grimes 3.80 2–0 Mia Nicolosi / Helena Ware 3.44 1–0 Emma Cowles / Sarah Moeder 3.28 1–0	84%	12–3 (80%)	−0.7
3	Tulane University Green Wave	7	8.65	Ciara Rodriguez-Horan / Lydia Brown 3.41 6–2 Caroline Benson / Ellie Spearman 2.88 5–2 Mia Hanes / Abigail Borggaard 2.42 5–2 Ciara Rodriguez-Horan / Catherine Anderson 3.25 4–2 Caroline Benson / Abigail Borggaard 2.76 4–1 Mia Hanes / Essie Clifton 2.55 3–1 Caroline Benson / Megan Cassidy 2.80 1–1 Mia Hanes / Annie Richard 2.39 1–1 Mia Hanes / Megan Cassidy 2.45 1–0	45%	10–4 (71%)	+3.7
4	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	5	9.08	Dana Haig / Shayne Bersin 3.31 8–4 Brooke Schmelz / Samantha Karlson 2.99 4–3 Lucy Brock / Grace Mao 2.83 4–2 Lucy Brock / Mercedes Escandon 2.76 1–4 Brooke Schmelz / Brooke Barry 2.99 1–3 Brooke Schmelz / Mercedes Escandon 3.00 3–0 Lucy Brock / Emily Scherer 2.79 3–0 Dana Haig / Samantha Karlson 3.21 0–2	54%	8–6 (57%)	+0.4
5	Stanford University Cardinal	2	10.16 school +0.47	Ellie Harned / Grace Austin Hannah Freeman / Abigail Tindall 3.45 Sophie Fisher / Anaclare Sole	79%	8–5 (62%)	−2.2
6	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	11	7.19 school −0.07	Emily Bornarth / Mia Quinlan 3.03 Emma Snead / Laura Slovensky 2.61 Julia Conneely / Leonora Krajewski 5–4 Julia Conneely / Celia Houston 2–2	19%	7–6 (54%)	+4.5
7	Harvard University Crimson	4	9.32 school +0.30	Cordelia Burn / Margo Silliman 3.01 Marbella Marlo / Juliana Ruggieri 2.98 3–4 Sarah Burn / Corinne Lee 3.03 3–4 Sarah Burn / Sophia Montgomery 3.06 3–3 Marbella Marlo / Corinne Lee 2.90 2–2 Marbella Marlo / Lily Bartlett 2.95 1–1	62%	6–7 (46%)	−2.1
8	Dartmouth College Big Green	6	8.70 school +0.39	Gray Hemans / Caroline Oyster 2.99 Sarah Young / Maya Nguyen 2.79 4–5 Taylor Eastman / Eliza Crocker 2.60 1–3 Bella Casaretto / Eliza Crocker 2.28 1–1 Taylor Eastman / Phoebe Lee 2.71 1–1 Bella Casaretto / Alexandra Pierce 2.45 1–0 Sarah Young / Taylor Eastman 2.75 1–0 Bella Casaretto / Madeleine Regulla 2.34 1–0 Sarah Young / Alexandra Pierce 2.72 0–1 Taylor Eastman / Madeleine Regulla 2.67 0–1	50%	5–6 (45%)	−0.5
9	College of Charleston Cougars	8	8.26 school +0.39	Grace Squires / Chloe Hudgins 2.80 3–7 Emily Alfortish / Kalea Woodard 2.44 2–5 Emma Tallman / Rowan Schanley 2.72 2–4 Emma Tallman / Roxanne Snyder 2.71 2–3 Fredrikke Foss / Kalea Woodard 2.18 1–1 Fredrikke Foss / Roxanne Snyder 2.29 1–1 Emily Alfortish / Chloe Hudgins 2.50 1–0	42%	4–7 (36%)	−0.7
10	Boston College Eagles	9	8.06 school +0.28	Caroline Sibilly / Elliot Dyroff 2.91 Libby Redmond / Katelyn Mcgauley 2.70 1–8 Elizabeth Shanahan / Lourdes Gallo 2.22 1–8 Libby Redmond / Sophia Hacket 2.63 1–1 Katelyn Mcgauley / Lourdes Gallo 2.00 1–1	38%	2–9 (18%)	−2.2
11	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	10	7.53 school +0.12	Elizabeth Kaplan / Holliss Hirsch 2.71 Kyra Phelan / Brooke Asherman 2.01 Lauren Russler / Luisa Louchheim 2.64	29%	1–10 (9%)	−2.2
12	University of South Florida Bulls	12	6.55	Emma Shakespeare / Kay Brunsvold 2.36 Heidi Hicks / Jewel "Min Min" Kelly 1.84 Sydney Monahan / Saleta Powell 2.38	13%	0–11 (0%)	−1.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
6	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	7.19	9.17	7–6	2.5	+1.98	6.9	<1%
1	Brown University	9.72	11.26	13–2	9.8	+1.54	3.3	4%
3	Tulane University	8.65	10.09	10–4	6.3	+1.45	3.8	2%
4	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	9.08	9.24	8–6	7.6	+0.16	0.0	53%
8	Dartmouth College	8.70	8.48	5–6	5.5	−0.22	0.1	75%
9	College of Charleston	8.26	7.94	4–7	4.7	−0.33	0.2	79%
2	Yale University	10.66	10.33	12–3	12.7	−0.33	0.2	81%
7	Harvard University	9.32	8.43	6–7	8.1	−0.89	1.4	96%
5	Stanford University	10.16	9.11	8–5	10.2	−1.05	1.8	97%
10	Boston College	8.06	6.79	2–9	4.2	−1.27	1.9	98%
11	Bowdoin College	7.53	5.85	1–10	3.2	−1.68	2.3	99%
12	University of South Florida	6.55	3.55	0–11	1.4	≤−3.00	2.1	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Mia Hanes	Tulane University	2.42	3.86	10–4	6.3	+1.45	3.8	2%
Ciara Rodriguez-Horan	Tulane University	3.41	4.85	10–4	6.3	+1.45	3.8	2%
Bella Casaretto	Dartmouth College	2.28	3.12	3–1	2.3	+0.84	0.4	43%
Fredrikke Foss	College of Charleston	2.18	2.45	2–2	1.8	+0.28	0.0	61%
Emma Cowles	Yale University	3.33	3.00	12–3	12.7	−0.33	0.2	81%
Carmen Cowles	Yale University	3.65	3.32	12–3	12.7	−0.33	0.2	81%
Cordelia Burn	Harvard University	3.01	2.12	6–7	8.1	−0.89	1.4	96%
Sarah Burn	Harvard University	3.03	2.14	6–7	8.1	−0.89	1.4	96%
Ellie Harned	Stanford University	3.05	2.00	8–5	10.2	−1.05	1.8	97%
Hannah Freeman	Stanford University	3.45	2.40	8–5	10.2	−1.05	1.8	97%
Elizabeth Kaplan	Bowdoin College	2.71	1.02	1–10	3.2	−1.68	2.3	99%
Lauren Russler	Bowdoin College	2.64	0.96	1–10	3.2	−1.68	2.3	99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Tulane University	Dartmouth College	57%
1	2	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston College	74%
1	3	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Harvard University	10%	upset
1	4	Brown University	College of Charleston	83%
1	5	Yale University	Bowdoin College	96%
1	6	Stanford University	University of South Florida	97%
1	7	Dartmouth College	Boston College	59%
1	8	Tulane University	Harvard University	35%	upset
1	9	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	64%
1	10	Yale University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	97%
1	11	College of Charleston	University of South Florida	86%
1	12	Stanford University	Bowdoin College	93%
1	13	Harvard University	Boston College	77%
1	14	Brown University	Dartmouth College	72%
1	15	Tulane University	Yale University	13%	upset
1	16	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of South Florida	93%
1	17	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bowdoin College	41%	upset
1	18	Stanford University	College of Charleston	86%
1	19	Brown University	Harvard University	59%
1	20	Yale University	Boston College	92%
1	21	Dartmouth College	University of South Florida	91%
1	22	Tulane University	Bowdoin College	77%
1	23	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	College of Charleston	68%
1	24	Stanford University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	95%
1	25	Brown University	Yale University	29%	upset
1	26	Harvard University	University of South Florida	94%
1	27	Boston College	Bowdoin College	64%
1	28	Dartmouth College	College of Charleston	56%
1	29	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Tulane University	20%	upset
1	30	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Stanford University	27%	upset
1	31	Yale University	University of South Florida	98%
1	32	Brown University	Bowdoin College	90%
1	33	Harvard University	College of Charleston	71%
1	34	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Boston College	29%	upset
1	35	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Dartmouth College	55%
1	36	Tulane University	Stanford University	17%	upset
1	37	Bowdoin College	University of South Florida	73%
1	38	Yale University	College of Charleston	91%
1	39	Brown University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	92%
1	40	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	56%
1	41	Tulane University	Boston College	62%
1	42	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	80%
1	43	College of Charleston	Bowdoin College	56%
1	44	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of South Florida	66%
1	45	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	85%
1	46	Tulane University	Brown University	27%	upset
1	47	Dartmouth College	Harvard University	36%	upset
1	48	Stanford University	Boston College	89%
1	49	College of Charleston	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	76%
1	50	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Bowdoin College	82%
1	51	Tulane University	University of South Florida	90%
1	52	Yale University	Dartmouth College	86%
1	53	Brown University	Boston College	83%
1	54	Harvard University	Stanford University	30%	upset
1	55	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	87%
1	56	Tulane University	College of Charleston	57%
1	57	Dartmouth College	Bowdoin College	71%
1	58	Boston College	University of South Florida	78%
1	59	Yale University	Harvard University	81%
1	60	Brown University	Stanford University	40%	upset
1	61	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Tulane University	64%
1	62	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Dartmouth College	18%	upset
1	63	College of Charleston	Boston College	60%
1	64	Harvard University	Bowdoin College	85%
1	65	Brown University	University of South Florida	96%
1	66	Yale University	Stanford University	65%
1	76	Brown University	Yale University	28%	upset
5	67	Stanford University	Harvard University	70%
5	68	Stanford University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	95%
5	69	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Harvard University	12%	upset
5	70	Yale University	Tulane University	87%
5	71	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	64%
5	72	Tulane University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	36%	upset
5	73	Yale University	Brown University	72%
5	74	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	85%
5	75	Brown University	Tulane University	73%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bears	Bulldogs	Wave	Engineers	Cardinal	Bears	Crimson	Green	Cougars	Eagles	Bears	Bulls
Brown University Bears	11–1	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	9–3	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Tulane University Green Wave	9–2	W	W	✕	L	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	8–3	L	L	W	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	6–5	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	6–5	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	6–5	L	L	L	W	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	5–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	4–7	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	2–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	1–10	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of South Florida Bulls	0–11	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 5

Team	Rec.	Bears	Bulldogs	Wave	Engineers	Cardinal	Bears	Crimson
Brown University Bears	2–1	✕	L	W	W	–	–	–
Yale University Bulldogs	3–0	W	✕	W	W	–	–	–
Tulane University Green Wave	1–2	L	L	✕	W	–	–	–
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	0–3	L	L	L	✕	–	–	–
Stanford University Cardinal	2–0	–	–	–	–	✕	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	1–1	–	–	–	–	L	✕	W
Harvard University Crimson	0–2	–	–	–	–	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
2	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
3	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Crimson	2-4-5
4	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6
5	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
6	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
7	Big Green	2-3-5	def.	Eagles	1-4-6
8	Green Wave	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
9	Bears	2-3-5	def.	Engineers	1-4-6
10	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
11	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
12	Cardinal	1-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	2-5-6
13	Crimson	1-4-5	def.	Eagles	2-3-6
14	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Big Green	2-4-5
15	Green Wave	2-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	1-4-6
16	Engineers	1-3-5	def.	Bulls	2-4-6
17	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
18	Cardinal	1-3-4	def.	Cougars	2-5-6
19	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
20	Bulldogs	1-4-5	def.	Eagles	2-3-6
21	Big Green	1-3-6	def.	Bulls	2-4-5
22	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
23	Engineers	1-3-4	def.	Cougars	2-5-6
24	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
25	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
26	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
27	Eagles	2-3-5	def.	Polar Bears	1-4-6
28	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6
29	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
30	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
31	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
32	Bears	2-3-5	def.	Polar Bears	1-4-6
33	Crimson	1-3-4	def.	Cougars	2-5-6
34	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
35	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
36	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Cardinal	4-5-6
37	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
38	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
39	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
40	Crimson	2-3-5	def.	Engineers	1-4-6
41	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6 DNS
42	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
43	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
44	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
45	Bulldogs	1-3-6	def.	Engineers	2-4-5
46	Green Wave	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
47	Big Green	1-3-6	def.	Crimson	2-4-5
48	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6 DNS
49	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
50	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
51	Green Wave	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
52	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
53	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6 DNS
54	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
55	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
56	Green Wave	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6
57	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
58	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
59	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
60	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Cardinal	2-5-6
61	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Green Wave	3-4-5
62	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
63	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
64	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
65	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
66	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Cardinal	3-5-6
76	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	2-5-6
67	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
68	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
69	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Crimson	2-4-6
70	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
71	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
72	Green Wave	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
73	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
74	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
75	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Brown University	Bears	Blaire Mccarthy '23 Brielle Willoughby '24 Caroline Bayless '23	Savannah Young '25 Kaitlyn Hamilton '26 Emilia Ruth '23 Francesca Edmands '25 Helen Horangic '25
Yale University	Bulldogs	Carmen Cowles '25 Emma Cowles '25 Mia Nicolosi '25	Carmen Berg '26 Sarah Moeder '26 Megan Grimes '24 Helena Ware '23 Ximena Escobar '25
Tulane University	Green Wave	Caroline Benson '23 Ciara Rodriguez-Horan '22 Mia Hanes '24	Abigail Borggaard '24 Megan Cassidy '26 Ellie Spearman '25 Lydia Brown '23 Catherine Anderson '26 Essie Clifton '25 Annie Richard '23
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Brooke Schmelz '25 Dana Haig '22 Lucy Brock '25	Mercedes Escandon '25 Brooke Barry '26 Samantha Karlson '25 Shayne Bersin '25 Emily Scherer '23 Grace Mao '23
Stanford University	Cardinal	Ellie Harned '26 Hannah Freeman '24 Sophie Fisher '26	Grace Austin '24 Abigail Tindall '23 Anaclare Sole '23
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Emily Bornarth '24 Emma Snead '23 Julia Conneely '26	Mia Quinlan '24 Laura Slovensky '25 Celia Houston '25 Leonora Krajewski '23
Harvard University	Crimson	Cordelia Burn '25 Marbella Marlo '24 Sarah Burn '24	Margo Silliman '25 Juliana Ruggieri '23 Corinne Lee '23 Lily Bartlett '24 Sophia Montgomery '25
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Bella Casaretto '26 Gray Hemans '25 Sarah Young '25 Taylor Eastman '24	Eliza Crocker '23 Alexandra Pierce '25 Madeleine Regulla '25 Caroline Oyster '24 Maya Nguyen '24 Taylor Eastman '24 Phoebe Lee '26
College of Charleston	Cougars	Emily Alfortish '25 Emma Tallman '25 Fredrikke Foss '25 Grace Squires '24	Kalea Woodard '24 Chloe Hudgins '24 Roxanne Snyder '23 Rowan Schanley '24
Boston College	Eagles	Caroline Sibilly '26 Elizabeth Shanahan '23 Katelyn Mcgauley '24 Libby Redmond '24	Elliot Dyroff '26 Lourdes Gallo '24 Katelyn Mcgauley '24 Sophia Hacket '25
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Elizabeth Kaplan '23 Kyra Phelan '26 Lauren Russler '26	Holliss Hirsch '25 Brooke Asherman '23 Luisa Louchheim '25
University of South Florida	Bulls	Emma Shakespeare '24 Heidi Hicks '25 Sydney Monahan '23	Kay Brunsvold '25 Jewel "Min Min" Kelly '24 Saleta Powell '25

Conditions — 04/01/2023 (8am–6pm)

🌧️Slight rain

Humidity 94% · Pressure 997.8 hPa

Temperature

56°F

↑ 60°F ↓ 49°F

Feels like 52°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

10.0 kn

avg · max 11.4 kn

Gusts to 26.6 kn

From SSW (210°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine1.0 hrs Humidity94% Pressure997.8 hPa Rain0.35 in

What this breeze does at Brown — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Brown in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.07)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Brown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (78 labelled fleet-race days at Brown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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