NEISA Women’s Team Race Champs/Legler Trophy

HostHarvard
Date04/13/2024
TypeConference Championship
BoatFJ/Z420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Yale University	Bulldogs	14–3
2	Boston College	Eagles	11–6
3	Harvard University	Crimson	10–7
4	Dartmouth College	Big Green	10–7
5	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	6–8
6	Brown University	Bears	5–9
7	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	4–5
8	Roger Williams University	Hawks	3–6
9	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	3–6
10	Tufts University	Jumbos	0–9

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 24,326 team race matches sailed before 2024-04-13, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 48 of 67 matches (72%) with a log-loss of 0.536 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.16 ± 0.24: a typical event, more orderly than 26% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Yale University Bulldogs	1	11.48 school +0.29	Mia Nicolosi / Ximena Escobar 3.72 Emma Cowles / Catherine Cheung 3.58 11–3 Carmen Cowles / Megan Grimes 3.89 9–2 Carmen Cowles / Carmen Berg 3.85 5–1 Emma Cowles / Carmen Berg 3.61 3–0	87%	14–3 (82%)	−0.8
2	Boston College Eagles	2	10.34 school +0.21	Colleen O'Brien / Sophia Hacket 3.39 6–4 Caroline Sibilly / Katelyn Mcgauley 3.33 6–4 Michaela O'Brien / Katelyn Mcgauley 3.43 5–2 Michaela O'Brien / Grace Beneke 3.31 4–2 Colleen O'Brien / Libby Redmond 3.44 4–2 Caroline Sibilly / Sara Schumann 3.33 4–2 Michaela O'Brien / Libby Redmond 3.39 2–2 Colleen O'Brien / Grace Beneke 3.37 1–0 Caroline Sibilly / Libby Redmond 3.30 1–0	68%	11–6 (65%)	−0.5
3	Harvard University Crimson	5	9.39 school +0.18, home +0.40	Sarah Burn / Lily Bartlett 2.85 Zoey Ziskind / Margo Silliman 2.78 Cordelia Burn / Emily Launderville 3.21 7–5 Cordelia Burn / Sarra Guezguez 3.08 2–1 Cordelia Burn / Peyton Hadfield 3.03 1–1	47%	10–7 (59%)	+2.1
4	Dartmouth College Big Green	3	10.19 school +0.27	Sarah Young / Madeline Koelbel 3.09 Maddie Hawkins / Elise Donovan 3.71 10–3 Gray Hemans / Sudi Zhao 3.16 4–5 Bella Casaretto / Phoebe Lee 3.04 5–2 Maddie Hawkins / Phoebe Lee 3.65 0–4 Gray Hemans / Faye Benjamin 3.15 1–0	64%	10–7 (59%)	−0.8
5	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	6	8.45 school +0.12	Brooke Schmelz / Samantha Karlson 3.22 Brooke Barry / Mercedes Escandon 2.05 Lucy Brock / Shayne Bersin 3.06	32%	6–8 (43%)	+1.5
6	Brown University Bears	4	9.28 school +0.28	Katherine Mcnamara / Lily Shore 2.83 3–7 Charlotte Costikyan / Menasha Leport 2.76 3–5 Brielle Willoughby / Kaitlyn Hamilton 3.33 3–4 Charlotte Costikyan / Francesca Edmands 2.81 3–4 Brielle Willoughby / Francesca Edmands 3.34 3–3 Katherine Mcnamara / Brianna Ross 2.93 3–2 Brielle Willoughby / Brianna Ross 3.36 0–2	52%	6–9 (40%)	−1.7
7	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	7	8.02 school +0.09	Emily Bornarth / Allison Nystrom 3.09 Laura Slovensky / Mia Quinlan 2.44 Julia Conneely / Charlotte Mccarthy 2.37	31%	4–6 (40%)	+0.9
8	Roger Williams University Hawks	9	7.65 school +0.35	Tavia Smith / Elyssa Franklin 2.51 Katherine Mcgagh / Maren Matthews 2.07 Lucy Meagher / Katharine Benagh 2.71 3–5 Lucy Meagher / Maggie Fleming 2.73 0–1	25%	3–6 (33%)	+0.8
9	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	8	7.70	Rebecca Schill / Katharine Kurtz 2.43 Kyra Phelan / Holliss Hirsch 2.46 Lauren Russler / Luisa Louchheim 2.81	26%	3–6 (33%)	+0.6
10	Tufts University Jumbos	10	7.44 school +0.23	Samantha Jensen / Lilly Ladd 2.30 Ella Hubbard / Lilah Parker 2.75 0–7 Maisie Macgillivray / Adelaide Straub 2.13 0–5 Meredith Broadus / Maisie Macgillivray 2.19 0–3 Ella Hubbard / Alessandra Torres 2.66 0–2 Maisie Macgillivray / Lilah Parker 2.35 0–1	21%	0–9 (0%)	−1.9

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
3	Harvard University	9.39	10.06	10–7	7.9	+0.67	1.0	18%
5	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	8.45	9.07	6–8	4.5	+0.62	0.7	25%
8	Roger Williams University	7.65	8.17	3–6	2.2	+0.52	0.3	39%
7	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	8.02	8.52	4–6	3.1	+0.50	0.3	37%
9	Bowdoin College	7.70	8.13	3–6	2.4	+0.43	0.2	44%
2	Boston College	10.34	10.16	11–6	11.5	−0.18	0.1	73%
4	Dartmouth College	10.19	9.90	10–7	10.9	−0.29	0.2	79%
1	Yale University	11.48	11.05	14–3	14.9	−0.43	0.3	85%
6	Brown University	9.28	8.62	6–9	7.7	−0.66	0.8	92%
10	Tufts University	7.44	4.44	0–9	1.9	≤−3.00	3.1	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Cordelia Burn	Harvard University	3.21	3.88	10–7	7.9	+0.67	1.0	18%
Sarah Burn	Harvard University	2.85	3.52	10–7	7.9	+0.67	1.0	18%
Brooke Barry	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	2.05	2.67	6–8	4.5	+0.62	0.7	25%
Lucy Meagher	Roger Williams University	2.71	3.22	3–6	2.2	+0.52	0.3	39%
Katherine Mcgagh	Roger Williams University	2.07	2.59	3–6	2.2	+0.52	0.3	39%
Laura Slovensky	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	2.44	2.94	4–6	3.1	+0.50	0.3	37%
Lauren Russler	Bowdoin College	2.81	3.24	3–6	2.4	+0.43	0.2	44%
Bella Casaretto	Dartmouth College	3.04	3.18	5–2	4.8	+0.14	0.0	63%
Emma Cowles	Yale University	3.58	3.15	14–3	14.9	−0.43	0.3	85%
Carmen Cowles	Yale University	3.89	3.46	14–3	14.9	−0.43	0.3	85%
Charlotte Costikyan	Brown University	2.76	2.10	6–9	7.7	−0.66	0.8	92%
Meredith Broadus	Tufts University	2.19	-0.81	0–3	0.5	≤−3.00	0.9	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Harvard University	Dartmouth College	32%	upset
1	2	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	61%
1	3	Brown University	Roger Williams University	83%
1	4	Bowdoin College	Tufts University	59%
1	5	Yale University	Boston College	75%
1	6	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Dartmouth College	10%	upset
1	7	Brown University	Harvard University	52%
1	8	Bowdoin College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	32%	upset
1	9	Yale University	Roger Williams University	98%
1	10	Boston College	Tufts University	95%
1	11	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Brown University	23%	upset
1	12	Dartmouth College	Bowdoin College	92%
1	13	Yale University	Harvard University	89%
1	14	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Tufts University	74%
1	15	Boston College	Roger Williams University	93%
1	16	Brown University	Bowdoin College	82%
1	17	Yale University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	97%
1	18	Dartmouth College	Tufts University	94%
1	19	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	84%
1	20	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston College	14%	upset
1	21	Yale University	Bowdoin College	98%
1	22	Brown University	Tufts University	88%
1	23	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	41%	upset
1	24	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Dartmouth College	16%	upset
1	25	Boston College	Harvard University	70%
1	26	Yale University	Tufts University	98%
1	27	Roger Williams University	Bowdoin College	49%	upset
1	28	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Brown University	29%	upset
1	29	Harvard University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	77%
1	30	Dartmouth College	Boston College	43%	upset
1	31	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	53%
1	32	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	96%
1	33	Bowdoin College	Harvard University	17%	upset
1	34	Dartmouth College	Brown University	73%
1	35	Boston College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	91%
1	36	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Roger Williams University	69%
1	37	Harvard University	Tufts University	87%
1	38	Yale University	Dartmouth College	77%
1	39	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bowdoin College	58%
1	40	Boston College	Brown University	77%
1	41	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	73%
1	42	Dartmouth College	Roger Williams University	93%
1	43	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Tufts University	64%
1	44	Yale University	Brown University	90%
1	45	Boston College	Bowdoin College	94%
4	62	Boston College	Dartmouth College	57%
4	63	Yale University	Harvard University	89%
4	64	Harvard University	Boston College	30%	upset
4	65	Dartmouth College	Yale University	23%	upset
4	66	Harvard University	Dartmouth College	32%	upset
4	67	Yale University	Boston College	75%
6	46	Brown University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	76%
6	47	Boston College	Harvard University	70%
6	48	Dartmouth College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	84%
6	49	Yale University	Brown University	90%
6	50	Boston College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	86%
6	51	Harvard University	Brown University	48%	upset
6	52	Dartmouth College	Yale University	23%	upset
6	53	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	71%
6	54	Dartmouth College	Boston College	43%	upset
6	55	Yale University	Harvard University	89%
6	56	Dartmouth College	Brown University	73%
6	57	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	73%
6	58	Boston College	Yale University	25%	upset
6	59	Harvard University	Dartmouth College	32%	upset
6	60	Boston College	Brown University	77%
6	61	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	96%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Eagles	Crimson	Green	Engineers	Bears	Bears	Hawks	Bears	Jumbos
Yale University Bulldogs	9–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	6–3	L	✕	W	L	L	W	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	5–4	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	L	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	5–4	L	W	L	✕	L	W	L	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	6–3	L	W	L	W	✕	W	W	W	L	W
Brown University Bears	4–5	L	L	W	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	4–5	L	L	L	W	L	W	✕	L	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	3–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	3–6	L	L	W	L	W	L	L	L	✕	W
Tufts University Jumbos	0–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Eagles	Crimson	Green
Yale University Bulldogs	2–1	✕	W	W	L
Boston College Eagles	1–2	L	✕	L	W
Harvard University Crimson	2–1	L	W	✕	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	1–2	W	L	L	✕

Round 6

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Eagles	Crimson	Green	Engineers	Bears	Bears
Yale University Bulldogs	3–2	✕	L	W	L	W	W	–
Boston College Eagles	4–1	W	✕	W	L	W	W	–
Harvard University Crimson	3–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	–
Dartmouth College Big Green	4–1	W	W	L	✕	W	W	–
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	0–5	L	L	L	L	✕	L	–
Brown University Bears	2–4	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	0–1	–	–	–	–	–	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Crimson	1-4-5	def.	Big Green	2-3-6
2	Engineers	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
3	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
4	Polar Bears	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
5	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
6	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
7	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
8	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
9	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
10	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
11	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
12	Big Green	1-3-6	def.	Polar Bears	2-4-5
13	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
14	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
15	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
16	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
17	Bulldogs	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
18	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
19	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
20	Engineers	1-4-5	def.	Eagles	2-3-6
21	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
22	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
23	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
24	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
25	Eagles	1-4-5	def.	Crimson	2-3-6
26	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
27	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
28	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
29	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
30	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
31	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
32	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
33	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
34	Big Green	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
35	Eagles	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
36	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
37	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
38	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
39	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Polar Bears	2-3-6
40	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
41	Crimson	1-3-5	def.	Engineers	2-4-6
42	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
43	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
44	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
45	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
62	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
63	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
64	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
65	Big Green	3-4-6	def.	Bulldogs	1-2-5 RAF
66	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
67	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
46	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
47	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
48	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
49	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
50	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
51	Crimson	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
52	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
53	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Engineers	2-3-6
54	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
55	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
56	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
57	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
58	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	1-5-6
59	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
60	Eagles	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
61	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Yale University	Bulldogs	Carmen Cowles '25 Emma Cowles '25 Mia Nicolosi '25	Megan Grimes '24 Carmen Berg '26 Catherine Cheung '24 Ximena Escobar '25
Boston College	Eagles	Caroline Sibilly '26 Colleen O'Brien '24 Michaela O'Brien '24	Sara Schumann '25 Katelyn Mcgauley '24 Libby Redmond '24 Sophia Hacket '25 Grace Beneke '24
Harvard University	Crimson	Cordelia Burn '25 Sarah Burn '24 Zoey Ziskind '27	Emily Launderville '24 Peyton Hadfield '27 Sarra Guezguez '27 Lily Bartlett '24 Margo Silliman '25
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Bella Casaretto '26 Gray Hemans '25 Maddie Hawkins '24 Sarah Young '25	Phoebe Lee '26 Sudi Zhao '26 Faye Benjamin '25 Elise Donovan '24 Madeline Koelbel '26
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Brooke Barry '26 Brooke Schmelz '25 Lucy Brock '25	Mercedes Escandon '25 Samantha Karlson '25 Shayne Bersin '25
Brown University	Bears	Brielle Willoughby '24 Charlotte Costikyan '24 Katherine Mcnamara '26	Kaitlyn Hamilton '26 Francesca Edmands '25 Brianna Ross '26 Menasha Leport '25 Lily Shore '24
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Emily Bornarth '24 Julia Conneely '26 Laura Slovensky '25	Allison Nystrom '26 Charlotte Mccarthy '25 Mia Quinlan '24
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Katherine Mcgagh '26 Lucy Meagher '27 Tavia Smith '27	Maren Matthews '26 Katharine Benagh '24 Maggie Fleming '27 Elyssa Franklin '26
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Kyra Phelan '26 Lauren Russler '26 Rebecca Schill '27	Holliss Hirsch '25 Luisa Louchheim '25 Katharine Kurtz '24
Tufts University	Jumbos	Ella Hubbard '26 Maisie Macgillivray '25 Meredith Broadus '25 Samantha Jensen '24	Lilah Parker '26 Alessandra Torres '24 Adelaide Straub '24 Maisie Macgillivray '25 Lilly Ladd '26

Conditions — 04/13/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 53% · Pressure 997.1 hPa

Temperature

54°F

↑ 56°F ↓ 50°F

Feels like 45°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

13.0 kn

avg · max 15.6 kn

Gusts to 28.8 kn

From WSW (252°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover75% Sunshine8.2 hrs Humidity53% Pressure997.1 hPa

What this breeze does at Harvard — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Harvard in this breeze: a typical day (+0.01)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Harvard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (59 labelled fleet-race days at Harvard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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