The Duplin Trophy

HostHarvard
Date03/22/2025
TypeCross Regional
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Yale University	Bulldogs	15–1
2	Brown University	Bears	11–5
3	Harvard University	Crimson	10–6
4	College of Charleston	Cougars	8–8
5	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	7–9
6	Boston College	Eagles	6–10
7	Tulane University	Green Wave	5–11
8	Roger Williams University	Hawks	5–11
9	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	5–11

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 26,169 team race matches sailed before 2025-03-22, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 49 of 72 matches (68%) with a log-loss of 0.551 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.16 ± 0.24: a typical event, more orderly than 27% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Yale University Bulldogs	1	11.57 school +0.27	Carmen Cowles / Sarah Moeder 3.67 Mia Nicolosi / Ximena Escobar 4.08 13–1 Emma Cowles / Audrey Foley 3.72 9–1 Emma Cowles / Jessi Avila-Shah 3.85 4–0 Dorothy Mendelblatt / Ximena Escobar 3.23 2–0 Audrey Foley / Jessi Avila-Shah 2.81 2–0	92%	15–1 (94%)	+0.2
2	Brown University Bears	2	10.16 school +0.34	Laura Hamilton / Kaitlyn Hamilton 3.27 7–3 Katharine Doble / Francesca Edmands 3.33 7–3 Katherine Mcnamara / Savannah Young 3.24 7–3 Katharine Doble / Savannah Young 3.34 4–2 Katherine Mcnamara / Menasha Leport 3.15 4–2 Laura Hamilton / Katherine Majette 3.23 3–1 Laura Hamilton / Francesca Edmands 3.34 1–1	72%	11–5 (69%)	−0.6
3	Harvard University Crimson	3	9.47 school +0.20, home +0.36	Cordelia Burn / Peyton Hadfield 3.21 Kate Danielson / Amelie Zucker 2.64 Zoey Ziskind / Katherine Shin 3.08 5–3 Zoey Ziskind / Theresa Straw 2.92 5–3	59%	10–6 (62%)	+0.6
4	College of Charleston Cougars	4	9.29 school +0.37	Emma Tallman / Sophia Browne 3.01 Bella Shakespeare / Paige Lubrano 2.99 5–5 Fredrikke Foss / Marina Dryer 2.87 5–5 Fredrikke Foss / Lucy Elvart 2.81 3–3 Bella Shakespeare / Marina Dryer 3.07 3–3	55%	8–8 (50%)	−0.8
5	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	6	8.78 school +0.15	Brooke Schmelz / Elliott Chalcraft 3.15 Brooke Barry / Shayne Bersin 2.50 3–7 Brooke Barry / Mercedes Escandon 2.40 4–2 Lucy Brock / Shayne Bersin 3.08 4–2 Lucy Brock / Mercedes Escandon 2.99 1–5 Lucy Brock / Tamsin Horne 2.90 2–2	43%	7–9 (44%)	+0.1
6	Boston College Eagles	9	7.85 school +0.27	Kate Joslin / Ainsley West 1.58 Caroline Sibilly / Sophia Hacket 3.33 4–8 Sara Schumann / Gabrielle Trinter 2.57 4–8 Caroline Sibilly / Kennedy Laureigh 3.40 2–2 Sara Schumann / Sophia Hacket 2.69 2–2	24%	6–10 (38%)	+2.2
7	Tulane University Green Wave	5	8.92	Gabriela Vassel / Essie Clifton 4–10 Samantha Gardner / Caitlin Briggs 3.33 3–9 Ava Anderson / Ella May Corckran 3.18 4–4 Ava Anderson / Catherine Anderson 3.08 1–7 Samantha Gardner / Hope Breslin 3.35 2–2 Gabriela Vassel / Martha Hughes 1–1	48%	5–11 (31%)	−2.6
8	Roger Williams University Hawks	7	8.08 school +0.38	Lucy Meagher / Maren Matthews 3.06 Katherine Mcgagh / Elyssa Franklin 2.10 Tavia Smith / Jancy Grayson 2.48	29%	5–11 (31%)	+0.4
9	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	8	8.03	Kyra Phelan / Maizie Bartlett 2.65 Lauren Russler / Luisa Louchheim 2.88 3–7 Rebecca Schill / Kaile Olson 2.44 3–7 Lauren Russler / Mairéad Reitzel 2.89 2–4 Rebecca Schill / Luisa Louchheim 2.47 2–4	28%	5–11 (31%)	+0.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
6	Boston College	7.85	8.62	6–10	3.8	+0.78	1.3	14%
3	Harvard University	9.47	9.69	10–6	9.4	+0.21	0.1	48%
1	Yale University	11.57	11.77	15–1	14.8	+0.20	0.0	66%
9	Bowdoin College	8.03	8.19	5–11	4.5	+0.16	0.1	49%
8	Roger Williams University	8.08	8.23	5–11	4.6	+0.15	0.0	51%
5	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	8.78	8.80	7–9	6.9	+0.03	0.0	59%
2	Brown University	10.16	9.92	11–5	11.6	−0.23	0.1	77%
4	College of Charleston	9.29	9.02	8–8	8.8	−0.26	0.2	78%
7	Tulane University	8.92	8.08	5–11	7.6	−0.84	1.6	96%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Cordelia Burn	Harvard University	3.21	3.42	10–6	9.4	+0.21	0.1	48%
Carmen Cowles	Yale University	3.67	3.88	15–1	14.8	+0.20	0.0	66%
Lauren Russler	Bowdoin College	2.88	3.05	5–11	4.5	+0.16	0.1	49%
Lucy Meagher	Roger Williams University	3.06	3.21	5–11	4.6	+0.15	0.0	51%
Katherine Mcgagh	Roger Williams University	2.10	2.25	5–11	4.6	+0.15	0.0	51%
Brooke Barry	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	2.50	2.52	7–9	6.9	+0.03	0.0	59%
Emma Cowles	Yale University	3.72	3.65	13–1	13.1	−0.06	0.0	76%
Fredrikke Foss	College of Charleston	2.87	2.61	8–8	8.8	−0.26	0.2	78%
Bella Shakespeare	College of Charleston	2.99	2.73	8–8	8.8	−0.26	0.2	78%
Gabriela Vassel	Tulane University	2.37	1.53	5–11	7.6	−0.84	1.6	96%
Ava Anderson	Tulane University	3.18	2.34	5–11	7.6	−0.84	1.6	96%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	67%
1	2	College of Charleston	Brown University	31%	upset
1	3	Roger Williams University	Tulane University	29%	upset
1	4	Yale University	Boston College	98%
1	5	Bowdoin College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	31%	upset
1	6	Brown University	Harvard University	66%
1	7	Tulane University	Boston College	77%
1	8	College of Charleston	Yale University	8%	upset
1	9	Harvard University	Bowdoin College	79%
1	10	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	34%	upset
1	11	Yale University	Brown University	83%
1	12	College of Charleston	Tulane University	58%
1	13	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston College	72%
1	14	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	79%
1	15	Yale University	Bowdoin College	95%
1	16	College of Charleston	Boston College	81%
1	17	Brown University	Tulane University	79%
1	18	Roger Williams University	Bowdoin College	51%
1	19	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	95%
1	20	Harvard University	Tulane University	65%
1	21	College of Charleston	Bowdoin College	78%
1	22	Brown University	Boston College	92%
1	23	Yale University	Roger Williams University	98%
1	24	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Tulane University	45%	upset
1	25	Boston College	Harvard University	17%	upset
1	26	Brown University	Bowdoin College	88%
1	27	Roger Williams University	College of Charleston	23%	upset
1	28	Yale University	Tulane University	87%
1	29	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	80%
1	30	Boston College	Bowdoin College	48%	upset
1	31	Yale University	Harvard University	92%
1	32	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	College of Charleston	38%	upset
1	33	Roger Williams University	Brown University	11%	upset
1	34	Tulane University	Bowdoin College	64%
1	35	Harvard University	College of Charleston	53%
1	36	Boston College	Roger Williams University	43%	upset
2	37	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Harvard University	32%	upset
2	38	Brown University	College of Charleston	68%
2	39	Tulane University	Roger Williams University	72%
2	40	Yale University	Boston College	98%
2	41	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Bowdoin College	69%
2	42	Harvard University	Brown University	34%	upset
2	43	Boston College	Tulane University	23%	upset
2	44	Yale University	College of Charleston	92%
2	45	Harvard University	Bowdoin College	80%
2	46	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Roger Williams University	65%
2	47	Yale University	Brown University	83%
2	48	Tulane University	College of Charleston	43%	upset
2	49	Boston College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	29%	upset
2	50	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	79%
2	51	Yale University	Bowdoin College	95%
2	52	College of Charleston	Boston College	81%
2	53	Brown University	Tulane University	78%
2	54	Bowdoin College	Roger Williams University	48%	upset
2	55	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	95%
2	56	Harvard University	Tulane University	65%
2	57	Bowdoin College	College of Charleston	22%	upset
2	58	Brown University	Boston College	91%
2	59	Yale University	Roger Williams University	97%
2	60	Tulane University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	56%
2	61	Harvard University	Boston College	83%
2	62	Brown University	Bowdoin College	88%
2	63	College of Charleston	Roger Williams University	77%
2	64	Yale University	Tulane University	87%
2	65	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	80%
2	66	Bowdoin College	Boston College	52%
2	67	Yale University	Harvard University	92%
2	68	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	College of Charleston	38%	upset
2	69	Brown University	Roger Williams University	89%
2	70	Bowdoin College	Tulane University	35%	upset
2	71	College of Charleston	Harvard University	46%	upset
2	72	Boston College	Roger Williams University	43%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Bears	Crimson	Cougars	Engineers	Eagles	Wave	Hawks	Bears
Yale University Bulldogs	7–1	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	5–3	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	L	W
Harvard University Crimson	5–3	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	5–3	W	W	L	✕	L	W	W	L	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	3–5	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	L	L
Boston College Eagles	3–5	L	L	W	L	L	✕	L	W	W
Tulane University Green Wave	2–6	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	L	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	5–3	L	W	L	W	W	L	W	✕	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	1–7	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Bears	Crimson	Cougars	Engineers	Eagles	Wave	Hawks	Bears
Yale University Bulldogs	8–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	6–2	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	5–3	L	W	✕	L	L	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	3–5	L	L	W	✕	L	W	L	W	L
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	4–4	L	L	W	W	✕	L	L	W	W
Boston College Eagles	3–5	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	L
Tulane University Green Wave	3–5	L	L	L	W	W	L	✕	W	L
Roger Williams University Hawks	0–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	4–4	L	L	L	W	L	W	W	W	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
2	Cougars	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
3	Hawks	2-3-5	def.	Green Wave	1-4-6
4	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
5	Polar Bears	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
6	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
7	Green Wave	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
8	Cougars	1-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	2-5-6
9	Crimson	1-3-6	def.	Polar Bears	2-4-5
10	Hawks	1-3-6	def.	Engineers	2-4-5
11	Bulldogs	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
12	Cougars	1-3-4	def.	Green Wave	2-5-6
13	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
14	Crimson	1-3-6 DNS	def.	Hawks	2-4-5
15	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
16	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
17	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
18	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
19	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
20	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
21	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
22	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
23	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
24	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Green Wave	1-5-6
25	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Crimson	2-4-5
26	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
27	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6
28	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
29	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
30	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
31	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Crimson	2-5-6
32	Engineers	1-4-5	def.	Cougars	2-3-6
33	Hawks	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
34	Green Wave	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
35	Crimson	1-3-5	def.	Cougars	2-4-6
36	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
37	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
38	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6
39	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
40	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
41	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
42	Crimson	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
43	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Green Wave	2-4-5
44	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
45	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
46	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
47	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
48	Green Wave	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
49	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
50	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
51	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
52	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
53	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
54	Polar Bears	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
55	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
56	Crimson	1-4-5	def.	Green Wave	2-3-6
57	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
58	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
59	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
60	Green Wave	1-4-5	def.	Engineers	2-3-6
61	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
62	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	2-5-6
63	Cougars	2-3-5	def.	Hawks	1-4-6
64	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Green Wave	2-5-6
65	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
66	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
67	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Crimson	2-5-6
68	Engineers	1-3-5	def.	Cougars	2-4-6
69	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Hawks	2-4-5
70	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
71	Cougars	2-3-5	def.	Crimson	1-4-6
72	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Yale University	Bulldogs	Audrey Foley '28 Carmen Cowles '25 Dorothy Mendelblatt '28 Emma Cowles '25 Mia Nicolosi '25	Jessi Avila-Shah '25 Sarah Moeder '26 Ximena Escobar '25 Audrey Foley '28
Brown University	Bears	Katharine Doble '26 Katherine Mcnamara '26 Laura Hamilton '27	Francesca Edmands '25 Savannah Young '25 Menasha Leport '25 Kaitlyn Hamilton '26 Katherine Majette '27
Harvard University	Crimson	Cordelia Burn '25 Kate Danielson '28 Zoey Ziskind '27	Peyton Hadfield '27 Amelie Zucker '28 Katherine Shin '27 Theresa Straw '28
College of Charleston	Cougars	Bella Shakespeare '27 Emma Tallman '25 Fredrikke Foss '25	Paige Lubrano '26 Marina Dryer '26 Sophia Browne '25 Lucy Elvart '28
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Brooke Barry '26 Brooke Schmelz '25 Lucy Brock '25	Mercedes Escandon '25 Shayne Bersin '25 Elliott Chalcraft '27 Tamsin Horne '28
Boston College	Eagles	Caroline Sibilly '26 Kate Joslin '28 Sara Schumann '25	Sophia Hacket '25 Kennedy Laureigh '26 Ainsley West '28 Gabrielle Trinter '27
Tulane University	Green Wave	Ava Anderson '27 Gabriela Vassel '28 Samantha Gardner '27	Ella May Corckran '26 Catherine Anderson '26 Essie Clifton '25 Martha Hughes '28 Caitlin Briggs '27 Hope Breslin '26
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Katherine Mcgagh '26 Lucy Meagher '27 Tavia Smith '27	Elyssa Franklin '26 Maren Matthews '26 Jancy Grayson '28
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Kyra Phelan '26 Lauren Russler '26 Rebecca Schill '27	Maizie Bartlett '27 Luisa Louchheim '25 Mairéad Reitzel '28 Kaile Olson '27

Conditions — 03/22/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 40% · Pressure 1003.9 hPa

Temperature

52°F

↑ 59°F ↓ 36°F

Feels like 44°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

8.9 kn

avg · max 11.9 kn

Gusts to 27.4 kn

From SW (224°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover73% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity40% Pressure1003.9 hPa

What this breeze does at Harvard — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Harvard in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.04)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Harvard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (59 labelled fleet-race days at Harvard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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