Jen Harris Women's Team Race

HostNavy
Date03/09/2024
TypeCross Regional
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Yale University	Bulldogs	10–1
2	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	9–2
3	Boston College	Eagles	8–3
3	Brown University	Bears	8–3
3	Cornell University	Big Red	8–3
6	College of Charleston	Cougars	7–4
7	Tulane University	Green Wave	4–7
8	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	4–7
9	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	3–8
10	University of South Florida	Bulls	3–8
11	George Washington University	Revolutionaries	1–10
12	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	1–10

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 22,415 team race matches sailed before 2024-03-09, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 53 of 64 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.363 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.27 ± 0.23: an orderly event, more orderly than 72% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Yale University Bulldogs	1	10.91 school +0.28	Mia Nicolosi / Ximena Escobar 3.59 Emma Cowles / Catherine Cheung 3.35 Carmen Cowles / Carmen Berg 3.68	93%	10–1 (91%)	−0.2
2	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	3	9.09 school +0.33	Torrey Chisari / Kiki Bruzzi 3.09 Madeleine Rice / Eva Gonzalez-Whitehouse 2.72 Sofia Segalla / Hannah Bast 2.94	69%	9–2 (82%)	+1.4
3	Boston College Eagles	2	9.53 school +0.25	Caroline Sibilly / Katelyn Mcgauley 3.20 Libby Redmond / Kennedy Laureigh 2.78 Michaela O'Brien / Sophia Hacket 3.28	76%	8–3 (73%)	−0.4
3	Brown University Bears	4	8.94 school +0.27	Katherine Mcnamara / Lily Shore 2.76 5–3 Brielle Willoughby / Brianna Ross 3.17 6–1 Charlotte Costikyan / Savannah Young 2.71 4–2 Katharine Doble / Savannah Young 2.89 3–1 Brielle Willoughby / Francesca Edmands 3.14 1–2 Charlotte Costikyan / Lily Shore 2.58 2–0 Brielle Willoughby / Kaitlyn Hamilton 3.11 1–0 Katharine Doble / Francesca Edmands 2.75 1–0 Katherine Mcnamara / Brianna Ross 2.77 1–0	67%	8–3 (73%)	+0.7
3	Cornell University Big Red	5	8.75 school −0.14	Bridget Green / Sophia Mulvania 3.39 Sophia Devling / Sophia Pearce 2.79 Winborne Majette / Amelia Neumann 2.67	63%	8–3 (73%)	+1.1
6	College of Charleston Cougars	6	8.33 school +0.34	Emma Tallman / Clara Murphy 2.90 Emily Alfortish / Marina Dryer 2.61 Fredrikke Foss / Chloe Hudgins 2.46	52%	6–4 (60%)	+0.8
7	Tulane University Green Wave	7	8.00 school +0.10	Samantha Gardner / Lucy Spearman 2.92 3–6 Mia Hanes / Ellie Spearman 2.65 3–5 Audrey Permenter / Abigail Borggaard 2.22 1–2 Ava Anderson / Caitlin Briggs 2.44 0–3 Ava Anderson / Abigail Borggaard 2.40 2–0 Audrey Permenter / Caitlin Briggs 2.26 0–1 Audrey Permenter / Ellie Spearman 2.29 0–1 Mia Hanes / Abigail Borggaard 2.59 1–0 Ava Anderson / Catherine Anderson 2.37 1–0 Samantha Gardner / Ellie Spearman 2.98 1–0	46%	4–6 (40%)	−0.6
8	Old Dominion University Monarchs	10	6.96 school +0.27	Elizabeth Gildea / Morgan Auth 2.19 Megan Geith / Lindsey Kaufmann 2.10 Gianna Dewey / Allison Volk 2.32	29%	4–7 (36%)	+0.8
9	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	8	7.46 school +0.25, home +0.39	Aubin Hattendorf / Catherine Aitken 1.68 Ava Farley / Eleanor Niehoff 2.22 Eva Blauvelt / Mary Dwyer 2.90	38%	3–8 (27%)	−1.2
10	University of South Florida Bulls	9	7.11 school −0.06	Emma Shakespeare / Hannah Marsicano 2.48 Kay Brunsvold / Kalea Woodard 2.73 Kailey Warrior / Saleta Powell 1–5 Heidi Hicks / Saleta Powell 1.76 1–2	33%	2–7 (22%)	−1.0
11	George Washington University Revolutionaries	12	5.23 school +0.08	Avery Canavan / Annabelle O'Bryan 2.05 Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia / Ella Adelman 2.00 Eva Wieting / Alexandra Lee	7%	1–10 (9%)	+0.2
12	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	11	6.61 school +0.27	Heather Kerns / Stella Kim 2.25 Elizabeth Starck / Ella Donaldson 2.09 Brook Wood / Laura Therien 1.97	23%	1–10 (9%)	−1.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	University of Pennsylvania	9.09	10.05	9–2	7.6	+0.96	0.9	25%
3	Cornell University	8.75	9.38	8–3	6.9	+0.64	0.5	34%
8	Old Dominion University	6.96	7.41	4–7	3.2	+0.45	0.3	40%
6	College of Charleston	8.33	8.77	6–4	5.2	+0.45	0.2	42%
3	Brown University	8.94	9.33	8–3	7.4	+0.39	0.2	47%
11	George Washington University	5.23	5.53	1–10	0.8	+0.30	0.1	56%
3	Boston College	9.53	9.29	8–3	8.4	−0.24	0.1	77%
1	Yale University	10.91	10.62	10–1	10.2	−0.29	0.0	82%
7	Tulane University	8.00	7.63	4–6	4.6	−0.36	0.1	80%
9	U. S. Naval Academy	7.46	6.73	3–8	4.2	−0.73	0.6	91%
10	University of South Florida	7.11	6.30	2–7	3.0	−0.81	0.5	91%
12	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	6.61	5.16	1–10	2.5	−1.45	1.4	97%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Torrey Chisari	University of Pennsylvania	3.09	4.05	9–2	7.6	+0.96	0.9	25%
Madeleine Rice	University of Pennsylvania	2.72	3.68	9–2	7.6	+0.96	0.9	25%
Charlotte Costikyan	Brown University	2.71	3.39	6–2	5.2	+0.67	0.4	41%
Winborne Majette	Cornell University	2.67	3.31	8–3	6.9	+0.64	0.5	34%
Fredrikke Foss	College of Charleston	2.46	2.91	6–4	5.2	+0.45	0.2	42%
Avery Canavan	George Washington University	2.05	2.35	1–10	0.8	+0.30	0.1	56%
Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia	George Washington University	2.00	2.30	1–10	0.8	+0.30	0.1	56%
Eva Wieting	George Washington University	0.96	1.27	1–10	0.8	+0.30	0.1	56%
Ava Anderson	Tulane University	2.44	2.51	3–3	2.9	+0.07	0.0	67%
Mia Hanes	Tulane University	2.65	2.40	4–5	4.4	−0.25	0.1	77%
Emma Cowles	Yale University	3.35	3.06	10–1	10.2	−0.29	0.0	82%
Carmen Cowles	Yale University	3.68	3.39	10–1	10.2	−0.29	0.0	82%
Aubin Hattendorf	U. S. Naval Academy	1.68	0.94	3–8	4.2	−0.73	0.6	91%
Ava Farley	U. S. Naval Academy	2.22	1.49	3–8	4.2	−0.73	0.6	91%
Eva Blauvelt	U. S. Naval Academy	2.90	2.17	3–8	4.2	−0.73	0.6	91%
Audrey Permenter	Tulane University	2.22	0.69	1–4	1.9	−1.53	0.9	98%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	University of Pennsylvania	Tulane University	76%
1	2	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	71%
1	3	Cornell University	Old Dominion University	86%
1	4	Brown University	University of South Florida	85%
1	5	Boston College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	95%
1	6	Yale University	George Washington University	100%
1	7	College of Charleston	University of Pennsylvania	32%	upset
1	8	Cornell University	Tulane University	69%
1	9	Brown University	U. S. Naval Academy	81%
1	10	Boston College	Old Dominion University	93%
1	11	University of South Florida	George Washington University	89%
1	12	Yale University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	99%
1	13	Cornell University	College of Charleston	60%
1	14	Brown University	University of Pennsylvania	46%	upset
1	15	Boston College	Tulane University	83%
1	16	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	91%
1	17	Old Dominion University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	58%
1	18	Yale University	University of South Florida	98%
1	19	Brown University	Cornell University	54%
1	20	Boston College	College of Charleston	77%
1	21	University of Pennsylvania	George Washington University	98%
1	22	Tulane University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	82%
1	23	U. S. Naval Academy	University of South Florida	63%
1	24	Yale University	Old Dominion University	98%
1	25	Boston College	Brown University	61%
1	26	Cornell University	George Washington University	97%
1	27	College of Charleston	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	85%
1	28	University of Pennsylvania	University of South Florida	87%
1	29	Tulane University	Old Dominion University	76%
1	30	Yale University	U. S. Naval Academy	97%
1	31	Boston College	George Washington University	99%
1	32	Brown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	91%
1	33	Cornell University	University of South Florida	82%
1	34	Old Dominion University	College of Charleston	20%	upset
1	35	University of Pennsylvania	U. S. Naval Academy	84%
1	36	Yale University	Tulane University	94%
1	37	George Washington University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	20%	upset
1	38	Boston College	University of South Florida	91%
1	39	Brown University	Old Dominion University	87%
1	40	Cornell University	U. S. Naval Academy	78%
1	41	College of Charleston	Tulane University	55%
1	42	University of Pennsylvania	Yale University	14%	upset
1	43	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of South Florida	36%	upset
1	44	Old Dominion University	George Washington University	85%
1	45	Boston College	U. S. Naval Academy	89%
1	46	Brown University	Tulane University	79%
1	47	University of Pennsylvania	Cornell University	58%
1	48	Yale University	College of Charleston	93%
1	49	University of South Florida	Old Dominion University	49%	upset
1	50	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	70%
1	51	Tulane University	George Washington University	93%
1	52	University of Pennsylvania	Boston College	39%	upset
1	53	College of Charleston	Brown University	36%	upset
1	54	Yale University	Cornell University	90%
1	55	Old Dominion University	U. S. Naval Academy	38%	upset
1	57	University of Pennsylvania	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	92%
1	58	College of Charleston	George Washington University	95%
1	59	Cornell University	Boston College	32%	upset
1	60	Yale University	Brown University	88%
1	61	Tulane University	U. S. Naval Academy	63%
1	62	University of Pennsylvania	Old Dominion University	89%
1	64	Cornell University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	89%
1	65	Brown University	George Washington University	97%
1	66	Yale University	Boston College	80%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Quakers	Eagles	Bears	Red	Cougars	Wave	Monarchs	Midshipmen	Bulls	Revolutionaries	Statesmen
Yale University Bulldogs	10–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	9–2	W	✕	W	L	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	8–3	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	8–3	L	W	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	8–3	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	7–4	L	W	L	W	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W
Tulane University Green Wave	4–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	4–7	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	L	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls	3–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	W	L	✕	W	L
George Washington University Revolutionaries	1–10	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	1–10	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
2	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
3	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
4	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
5	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
6	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Revolutionaries	3-4-5
7	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Quakers	1-5-6
8	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
9	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
10	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
11	Bulls	1-2-4	def.	Revolutionaries	3-5-6
12	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
13	Big Red	1-3-5	def.	Cougars	2-4-6
14	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
15	Eagles	1-4-5	def.	Green Wave	2-3-6
16	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Revolutionaries	3-4-6
17	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
18	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
19	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
20	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
21	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Revolutionaries	4-5-6
22	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
23	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
24	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
25	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
26	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Revolutionaries	3-5-6
27	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
28	Quakers	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
29	Green Wave	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
30	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
31	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Revolutionaries	3-4-6
32	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
33	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
34	Monarchs	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
35	Quakers	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
36	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
37	Revolutionaries	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
38	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
39	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
40	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
41	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
42	Quakers	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
43	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
44	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Revolutionaries	3-5-6
45	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
46	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
47	Quakers	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
48	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
49	Bulls	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
50	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
51	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Revolutionaries	4-5-6
52	Quakers	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
53	Cougars	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
54	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
55	Monarchs	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
56	Bulls	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
57	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
58	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Revolutionaries	3-4-6
59	Big Red	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
60	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
61	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
62	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
63	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
64	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
65	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Revolutionaries	4-5-6
66	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Yale University	Bulldogs	Carmen Cowles '25 Emma Cowles '25 Mia Nicolosi '25	Carmen Berg '26 Catherine Cheung '24 Ximena Escobar '25
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	Madeleine Rice '24 Sofia Segalla '25 Torrey Chisari '24	Eva Gonzalez-Whitehouse '26 Hannah Bast '25 Kiki Bruzzi '25
Boston College	Eagles	Caroline Sibilly '26 Libby Redmond '24 Michaela O'Brien '24	Katelyn Mcgauley '24 Kennedy Laureigh '26 Sophia Hacket '25
Brown University	Bears	Brielle Willoughby '24 Charlotte Costikyan '24 Katharine Doble '26 Katherine Mcnamara '26	Brianna Ross '26 Francesca Edmands '25 Kaitlyn Hamilton '26 Savannah Young '25 Lily Shore '24
Cornell University	Big Red	Bridget Green '25 Sophia Devling '26 Winborne Majette '27	Sophia Mulvania '26 Sophia Pearce '26 Amelia Neumann '25
College of Charleston	Cougars	Emily Alfortish '25 Emma Tallman '25 Fredrikke Foss '25	Marina Dryer '26 Clara Murphy '27 Chloe Hudgins '24
Tulane University	Green Wave	Audrey Permenter '27 Ava Anderson '27 Mia Hanes '24 Samantha Gardner '27	Abigail Borggaard '24 Caitlin Briggs '27 Ellie Spearman '25 Catherine Anderson '26 Lucy Spearman '25
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Elizabeth Gildea '24 Gianna Dewey '27 Megan Geith '24	Morgan Auth '27 Allison Volk '25 Lindsey Kaufmann '26
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Aubin Hattendorf '24 Ava Farley '26 Eva Blauvelt '25	Catherine Aitken '24 Eleanor Niehoff '26 Mary Dwyer '27
University of South Florida	Bulls	Emma Shakespeare '24 Heidi Hicks '25 Kailey Warrior '27 Kay Brunsvold '25	Hannah Marsicano '24 Saleta Powell '25 Kalea Woodard '24
George Washington University	Revolutionaries	Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia '26 Avery Canavan '25 Eva Wieting '26	Ella Adelman '26 Annabelle O'Bryan '24 Alexandra Lee '25
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Brook Wood '25 Elizabeth Starck '25 Heather Kerns '24	Laura Therien '26 Ella Donaldson '27 Stella Kim '27

Conditions — 03/09/2024 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Moderate drizzle

Humidity 95% · Pressure 1012.9 hPa

Temperature

48°F

↑ 52°F ↓ 42°F

Feels like 42°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

9.1 kn

avg · max 12.4 kn

Gusts to 25.9 kn

From ESE (120°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity95% Pressure1012.9 hPa Rain0.44 in

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: SE about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.10)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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