St. Mary's Team Race Inter-Conference

HostSt. Mary's
Date03/09/2024
TypeCross Regional
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Stanford University	Cardinal	18–3
2	Roger Williams University	Hawks	17–4
3	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	15–6
4	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	11–10
5	Tufts University	Jumbos	10–11
6	George Washington University	Revolutionaries	7–14
7	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	5–11
8	Cornell University	Big Red	3–13
9	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	1–15

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 22,415 team race matches sailed before 2024-03-09, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 71 of 87 matches (82%) with a log-loss of 0.421 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.08 ± 0.19: a typical event, more orderly than 34% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Stanford University Cardinal	1	11.97 school +0.43	Michelle Lahrkamp / Ellie Harned 3.74 Thomas Sitzmann / Alice Schmid 3.90 Vanessa Lahrkamp / Gwendolyn Donahue 3.87	92%	18–3 (86%)	−1.2
2	Roger Williams University Hawks	2	10.87 school +0.25	Aidan Hoogland / Michaela Odonnell 3.57 Carlos De Castro / Carly Kiss 3.81 Oliver Stokke / Claire Buckley 3.22	77%	17–4 (81%)	+0.9
3	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3	10.11 school +0.25	Jack Welburn / Ellie Alex 3.18 Nathan Smith / Darby Graham 3.24 Henry Allgeier / Madeline Smith 3.40	64%	15–6 (71%)	+1.6
4	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	4	9.69 school +0.24, home +0.39	Charlie Anderson / Katherine Shermock 2.68 Madison Bashaw / Rachel O'Neill 2.86 Owen Hennessey / Zoe Hoctor 3.49	56%	11–10 (52%)	−0.8
5	Tufts University Jumbos	5	9.32 school +0.15	Ben Mueller / Henry Tindall 3.25 Trevor Davis / Celia Byrne 3.28 Wyatt Bischoff / Cindy Wang 2.61	49%	10–11 (48%)	−0.3
6	George Washington University Revolutionaries	8	7.45 school +0.08	Oscar Macgillivray / Ian Milko 2.28 Jedidiah Bechtel / Sam Schuhwerk 2.07 2–10 Tyler Wood / Henry Mcpherson 2.83 2–10 Tyler Wood / Sam Schuhwerk 2.77 5–4 Jedidiah Bechtel / Henry Mcpherson 2.11 2–3 Jedidiah Bechtel / Tryg Van Wyk 2.17 3–1	18%	7–14 (33%)	+3.1
7	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	6	8.86 school +0.27	Will Murray / Frances Depke 2.96 Juan Carlos Lacerda Jones / Rachel Duggan 2.88 Jj Klempen / Anna Mcbride 2.72	45%	5–11 (31%)	−2.2
8	Cornell University Big Red	7	7.52 school −0.14	Lauren Ehnot / Kate Moran 2.71 Pilar Cundey / Boris Bialer 2.27 2–8 J.J. Smith / Clara Hewson 2.63 2–8 Pilar Cundey / Wynne Williams 2.25 1–5 J.J. Smith / Boris Bialer 2.64 1–5	23%	3–13 (19%)	−0.7
9	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	9	6.35 school −0.26	Spencer Barnes / Marcus Adam 2.77 Ben Hosford / Nicholas Cunha 1.81 Brooks Turcotte / Eva Leggett 1.98	9%	1–15 (6%)	−0.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
6	George Washington University	7.45	8.66	7–14	3.9	+1.20	2.9	4%
3	U. S. Naval Academy	10.11	10.65	15–6	13.4	+0.54	0.6	27%
2	Roger Williams University	10.87	11.23	17–4	16.1	+0.36	0.2	42%
5	Tufts University	9.32	9.22	10–11	10.3	−0.11	0.0	68%
4	St. Mary's College of Maryland	9.69	9.45	11–10	11.8	−0.24	0.1	77%
9	SUNY Maritime College	6.35	5.97	1–15	1.4	−0.38	0.1	78%
8	Cornell University	7.52	7.12	3–13	3.7	−0.40	0.2	82%
1	Stanford University	11.97	11.31	18–3	19.2	−0.66	0.6	91%
7	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	8.86	7.87	5–11	7.2	−0.99	1.5	97%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Jedidiah Bechtel	George Washington University	2.07	3.27	7–14	3.9	+1.20	2.9	4%
Owen Hennessey	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.49	4.69	7–14	3.9	+1.20	2.9	4%
Aidan Hoogland	Roger Williams University	3.57	3.93	17–4	16.1	+0.36	0.2	42%
Carlos De Castro	Roger Williams University	3.81	4.16	17–4	16.1	+0.36	0.2	42%
Ben Mueller	Tufts University	3.25	3.14	10–11	10.3	−0.11	0.0	68%
Charlie Anderson	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.68	2.43	11–10	11.8	−0.24	0.1	77%
Ben Hosford	SUNY Maritime College	1.81	1.43	1–15	1.4	−0.38	0.1	78%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	George Washington University	SUNY Maritime College	73%
1	2	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Cornell University	80%
1	3	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	82%
1	4	U. S. Naval Academy	Stanford University	13%	upset
1	5	St. Mary's College of Maryland	SUNY Maritime College	97%
1	6	Cornell University	George Washington University	53%
1	7	Tufts University	U. S. Naval Academy	32%	upset
1	8	Stanford University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	96%
1	9	George Washington University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	9%	upset
1	10	Roger Williams University	SUNY Maritime College	99%
1	11	Stanford University	Cornell University	99%
1	12	Tufts University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	61%
1	13	U. S. Naval Academy	SUNY Maritime College	98%
1	14	Roger Williams University	George Washington University	97%
1	15	Stanford University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	91%
1	16	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	78%
1	17	Tufts University	Cornell University	86%
1	18	Roger Williams University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	77%
1	19	Stanford University	SUNY Maritime College	100%
1	20	Tufts University	George Washington University	88%
1	21	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	70%
1	22	U. S. Naval Academy	Cornell University	93%
1	23	Stanford University	Roger Williams University	75%
1	24	Tufts University	SUNY Maritime College	95%
1	25	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	94%
1	26	Cornell University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	10%	upset
1	27	Roger Williams University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	88%
1	28	Stanford University	Tufts University	93%
1	29	SUNY Maritime College	Cornell University	24%	upset
1	30	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	60%
1	31	Stanford University	George Washington University	99%
1	32	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	SUNY Maritime College	92%
1	33	Roger Williams University	Cornell University	97%
1	34	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Tufts University	59%
1	35	George Washington University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	19%	upset
1	36	Roger Williams University	U. S. Naval Academy	68%
2	37	George Washington University	SUNY Maritime College	76%
2	38	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Cornell University	79%
2	39	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	82%
2	40	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	87%
2	41	St. Mary's College of Maryland	SUNY Maritime College	97%
2	42	George Washington University	Cornell University	49%	upset
2	43	Tufts University	U. S. Naval Academy	31%	upset
2	44	Stanford University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	96%
2	45	St. Mary's College of Maryland	George Washington University	90%
2	46	Roger Williams University	SUNY Maritime College	99%
2	47	Stanford University	Cornell University	99%
2	48	Tufts University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	61%
2	49	U. S. Naval Academy	SUNY Maritime College	98%
2	50	Roger Williams University	George Washington University	97%
2	51	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Stanford University	9%	upset
2	52	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	78%
2	53	Tufts University	Cornell University	86%
2	54	Roger Williams University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	76%
2	55	Stanford University	SUNY Maritime College	100%
2	56	George Washington University	Tufts University	14%	upset
2	57	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	St. Mary's College of Maryland	30%	upset
2	58	U. S. Naval Academy	Cornell University	93%
2	59	Stanford University	Roger Williams University	75%
2	60	Tufts University	SUNY Maritime College	95%
2	61	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	93%
2	62	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Cornell University	90%
2	63	Roger Williams University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	88%
2	64	Stanford University	Tufts University	93%
2	65	Cornell University	SUNY Maritime College	76%
2	66	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	40%	upset
2	67	Stanford University	George Washington University	99%
2	68	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	SUNY Maritime College	92%
2	69	Roger Williams University	Cornell University	96%
2	70	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Tufts University	59%
2	71	George Washington University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	20%	upset
2	72	U. S. Naval Academy	Roger Williams University	32%	upset
6	73	U. S. Naval Academy	Roger Williams University	32%	upset
6	74	Stanford University	Tufts University	93%
6	75	St. Mary's College of Maryland	George Washington University	90%
6	76	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	86%
6	77	Roger Williams University	George Washington University	97%
6	78	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Tufts University	59%
6	79	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	93%
6	80	Stanford University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	91%
6	81	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	82%
6	82	Stanford University	George Washington University	99%
6	83	Roger Williams University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	76%
6	84	U. S. Naval Academy	Tufts University	69%
6	85	Roger Williams University	Stanford University	25%	upset
6	86	Tufts University	George Washington University	86%
6	87	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	61%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Hawks	Midshipmen	Seahawks	Jumbos	Revolutionaries	Statesmen	Red	Privateers
Stanford University Cardinal	7–1	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	7–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	6–2	W	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	3–5	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	L	W
Tufts University Jumbos	5–3	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W
George Washington University Revolutionaries	3–5	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	L	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	2–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	2–6	L	L	L	W	L	W	L	✕	L
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	1–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Hawks	Midshipmen	Seahawks	Jumbos	Revolutionaries	Statesmen	Red	Privateers
Stanford University Cardinal	7–1	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	6–2	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	5–3	L	W	✕	L	L	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	6–2	W	L	W	✕	W	W	L	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	4–4	L	L	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W
George Washington University Revolutionaries	4–4	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	3–5	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	1–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	0–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 6

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Hawks	Midshipmen	Seahawks	Jumbos	Revolutionaries
Stanford University Cardinal	4–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	4–1	W	✕	L	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	4–1	L	W	✕	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	2–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	1–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W
George Washington University Revolutionaries	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Revolutionaries	1-3-6	def.	Privateers	2-4-5
2	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
3	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
4	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
5	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
6	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Revolutionaries	3-4-6
7	Jumbos	1-3-6	def.	Midshipmen	2-4-5
8	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
9	Revolutionaries	1-4-5	def.	Seahawks	2-3-6
10	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
11	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
12	Jumbos	1-3-4	def.	Statesmen	2-5-6
13	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
14	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Revolutionaries	3-5-6
15	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
16	Midshipmen	1-3-5	def.	Statesmen	2-4-6
17	Jumbos	1-3-6	def.	Big Red	2-4-5
18	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
19	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
20	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Revolutionaries	4-5-6
21	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
22	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
23	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
24	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
25	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Revolutionaries	4-5-6
26	Big Red	2-3-5	def.	Seahawks	1-4-6
27	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
28	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
29	Privateers	2-3-5	def.	Big Red	1-4-6
30	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
31	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Revolutionaries	3-5-6
32	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
33	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
34	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
35	Revolutionaries	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
36	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
37	Revolutionaries	1-4-5	def.	Privateers	2-3-6
38	Statesmen	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
39	Hawks	1-3-4	def.	Jumbos	2-5-6
40	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
41	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
42	Revolutionaries	1-2-6	def.	Big Red	3-4-5
43	Jumbos	1-4-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-3-6
44	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
45	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Revolutionaries	3-5-6
46	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
47	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
48	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
49	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
50	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Revolutionaries	4-5-6
51	Seahawks	1-3-5	def.	Cardinal	2-4-6
52	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
53	Jumbos	1-3-4	def.	Big Red	2-5-6
54	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
55	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
56	Revolutionaries	2-3-5	def.	Jumbos	1-4-6
57	Statesmen	1-4-5	def.	Seahawks	2-3-6
58	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
59	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
60	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
61	Midshipmen	1-3-6	def.	Revolutionaries	2-4-5
62	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
63	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
64	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
65	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
66	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
67	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Revolutionaries	3-4-6
68	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
69	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
70	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
71	Revolutionaries	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
72	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
73	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
74	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
75	Seahawks	2-3-5	def.	Revolutionaries	1-4-6
76	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
77	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Revolutionaries	3-5-6
78	Seahawks	1-4-5	def.	Jumbos	2-3-6
79	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Revolutionaries	3-4-5
80	Cardinal	1-4-5	def.	Seahawks	2-3-6
81	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Jumbos	2-4-6
82	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Revolutionaries	4-5-6
83	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Seahawks	2-4-6
84	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
85	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6 DNF
86	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Revolutionaries	3-5-6
87	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Stanford University	Cardinal	Michelle Lahrkamp '23 Thomas Sitzmann '27 Vanessa Lahrkamp '26	Ellie Harned '26 Alice Schmid '27 Gwendolyn Donahue '24
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Aidan Hoogland '24 Carlos De Castro '26 Oliver Stokke '26	Michaela Odonnell '24 Carly Kiss '25 Claire Buckley '25
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Henry Allgeier '27 Jack Welburn '26 Nathan Smith '26	Madeline Smith '24 Ellie Alex '26 Darby Graham '26
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Charlie Anderson '25 Madison Bashaw '24 Owen Hennessey '25	Katherine Shermock '24 Rachel O'Neill '24 Zoe Hoctor '25
Tufts University	Jumbos	Ben Mueller '26 Trevor Davis '24 Wyatt Bischoff '27	Henry Tindall '25 Celia Byrne '24 Cindy Wang '25
George Washington University	Revolutionaries	Jedidiah Bechtel '26 Oscar Macgillivray '24 Tyler Wood '26	Tryg Van Wyk '26 Henry Mcpherson '25 Sam Schuhwerk '27 Ian Milko '26
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Jj Klempen '27 Juan Carlos Lacerda Jones '26 Will Murray '24	Anna Mcbride '24 Rachel Duggan '25 Frances Depke '25
Cornell University	Big Red	J.J. Smith '24 Lauren Ehnot '24 Pilar Cundey '27	Clara Hewson '24 Boris Bialer '26 Kate Moran '27 Wynne Williams '27
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	Ben Hosford '25 Brooks Turcotte '26 Spencer Barnes '24	Nicholas Cunha '27 Eva Leggett '24 Marcus Adam '23

Conditions — 03/09/2024 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle

Humidity 92% · Pressure 1012.5 hPa

Temperature

50°F

↑ 54°F ↓ 44°F

Feels like 44°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

12.9 kn

avg · max 19.4 kn

Gusts to 36.2 kn

From SE (127°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.1 hrs Humidity92% Pressure1012.5 hPa Rain0.41 in

What this breeze does at St. Mary's — from fleet racing

Breeze: SE about 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at St. Mary's in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.08)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Mary's by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled fleet-race days at St. Mary's).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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